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UK sees highest gross home lending for May since 2008
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £18.2 billion in May, some 4% higher than April’s £17.6 billion and 14% higher than May 2015, the latest data shows. The figure from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, which represents the vast majority of home lenders in the UK, was the highest May figure since 2008 when gross lending reached £23.7 billion. CML senior economist Mohammad Jamei pointed out that, as expected, lending continued to be somewhat dampened in May, reflecting the earlier rush in the first quarter to beat the stamp duty change on second properties. ‘Looking ahead, there is likely to be considerable uncertainty as a result of the European Union referendum decision. We expect this to affect sentiment and reduce activity below levels that would otherwise be expected in the near term, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait and see attitude until the dust begins to settle,’ he explained. ‘Market fundamentals underpinning house prices still look sound, and we do not expect significant house price falls, especially given the current supply demand imbalance,’ he added. According to Adam Tyler, chief executive officer of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers (NACFB), a wait and see attitude and increased caution is likely among buyers and sellers alike due to the referendum result. ‘Our own view mirrors that of the Council of Mortgage Lenders in that market fundamentals still look sound and the sharp imbalance between supply and demand will prevent a material decline in prices,’ he said. ‘Sentiment may have shifted dramatically over the past few days but the structural imbalance between supply and demand is as strong as ever. Demand naturally tapered off in the buy to let sector following the stamp duty surcharge but it may experience a bounce after Friday's referendum result,’ he explained. He also pointed out that current market, political and economic volatility could benefit buy to let as investors once again look to bricks and mortar as a safe investment and the fact that Bank Rate is now more likely to go down than up in the near term will provide further support to the property market. ‘Understandably, there's a lot of hysteria surrounding the trajectory of the property market but our own view is that the reality will prove to be relatively benign,’ he added. Continue reading
British rental prices up 2.5% year on year
Rents in Britain increased by 2.5% in the 12 months to May, down slightly from the 2.6% annual rise recorded in the previous month, the latest index figures show. Rental prices grew by 2.6% in England, 0.4 % in Scotland and were unchanged in Wales, the data from the Index of Private Housing Rental index published by the Office of National Statistics also shows. It means that a property that was rented for £500 a month in May 2015, which saw its rent increase by the Great Britain average rate, would be rented for £512.50 in May 2016. Rental prices for Great Britain excluding London grew by 2% in the same period and rental prices increased in all the English regions over the year to May 2016, with rental prices increasing the most in the South East at 3.4%, up from 3.1% in April 2016. This was followed by London at 3.3 but this was down from 3.7% in April 2016 and the East of England at 3.2%, up from 3.0%. Annual price increases had previously been stronger in London than the rest of England since November 2010. I The lowest annual rental price increases were in the North East at 0.8%, unchanged when compared to April 2016, the North West at 1.2%, up from 1.1% and Yorkshire and the Humber at 1.2%, down from 1.3% over the same period. The zero annual rate of change in Wales continues to be below that of England and the Great Britain average. Rental growth in Scotland has gradually slowed to 0.4% from a high of 2.1% in the year to June 2015. The IPHRP series for England starts in 2005. Private rental prices in England show three distinct periods: rental price increases from January 2005 until February 2009, rental price decreases from July 2009 to February 2010, and increasing rental prices from May 2010 onwards. When London is excluded, England shows a similar pattern but with slower rental price increases from around the end of 2010. Since January 2011 England rental prices have increased more than those of Wales and Scotland and since the beginning of 2012, English rental prices have shown annual increases ranging between 1.4% and 3% year on year, with May 2016 rental prices being 2.6% higher than May 2015 rental prices. Excluding London, England showed an increase of 2.3% for the same period. Looking at data from the UK House Price Index over a longer period shows residential house price growth has typically been stronger than rental price growth for a number of years, with an average 12 month rate of house price inflation of 5.7% between January 2013 and April 2016, compared with 2.1% for rental prices. Inflation in the rental market is likely to have been caused by demand in the market outpacing supply. Demand in the lettings market continues to strengthen, with RICS’ Residential Market Survey noting that tenant demand continued to grow robustly in May 2016. The strength… Continue reading
Prime property market in London set to be affected most by Brexit
The prime property market in London is likely to be the affected the most by the referendum results in the UK which will see the country leave the European Union. Sales activity and price growth in the prime London residential market have already both slowed since the middle of 2014 and in the run up to the historic vote many commentators and experts were predicting that a vote to leave would affect London the most. ‘There is no doubt that the vote in favour of Brexit will generate a period of renewed uncertainty in the prime London residential market. Some demand, especially from investors, will be delayed and in some cases redirected to other markets although the significance of these trends should not be overstated,’ said Liam Bailey of international real estate firm Knight Frank. He explained that demand for prime London property rests on a wide range of drivers most of which are unaffected by the referendum decision such as the scale of London’s business cluster, depth of skills, education, lifestyle and language. ‘It is not easy to identify an obvious alternative destination for investors despite short term nervousness. On the eve of the vote the pound sat 14% below its mid-2014 peak meaning pricing in the prime market was more attractive for dollar buyers. While a further weakening of the pound could increase inward investment, this impact will be constrained by the fact that around 80% of central London buyers are UK residents,’ he pointed out. ‘It seems a reasonable assumption to make that interest rates will be lower for longer, despite the risk of imported inflation from a weaker pound. While the long term benefit of ultra-low interest rates on the housing market may be questionable, in the short term they will act to underpin demand especially for equity rich buyers with access to the best funding rates,’ he added. Bailey also believes that the prime country house market will be similarly impacted by the result. ‘However while the market has performed relatively well over recent years, following a slow recovery immediately after the financial crisis, prices have not tracked London to date and there is scope for some outperformance in the short to medium term,’ he said. ‘While we are entering a period of renewed uncertainty in the UK and London market, ongoing issues around EU and especially Eurozone stability, which will be highlighted in the run up to French and German elections, are likely to counter this risk and shore-up London’s safe haven appeal,’ he concluded. The decision to leave has opened up a Pandora’s Box as far as the London property market is concerned and for overseas buyers, this big and dramatic drop in the value of Sterling will effectively offset the Stamp Duty and tax adjustments and it will make prime London property a lucrative investment for overseas investors bold enough to make a decision to buy despite the market uncertainty, according to Peter Wetherell, chief… Continue reading
