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More people expected to rent than buy in UK by 2025
By 2025 there may be slightly more people renting privately in the UK than owning with a mortgage, according to new research, with average prices rising to £360,000 by 2020. There will also be a greater number of mostly older people than ever before owning their home outright, amounting to almost 35% of all households, says the analysis from accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers. The analysis also says that UK house price growth is projected by PwC to average just over 5% per annum over the period to 2020. So the average residential property in the UK could be worth around £279,000 in 2015, rising to around £360,000 by 2020. Overall the total UK owner occupation rate is projected to fall from a peak of nearly 70% before the financial crisis to around 60% of households by 2025 and house price growth is projected to moderate to around 5% per annum. The report also points out that as house prices have risen much faster than earnings and social housing supply remains constrained, the number of households in the private rented sector has more than doubled since 2001. This trend is predicted to continue with an additional 1.8 million households becoming private renters by 2025. This would take the total to 7.2 million households, almost one in four of the UK total in 2025. The trend is particularly strong in the 20 to 39 so called generation rent age group where more than half will be renting privately by 2025, according to PwC’s latest UK Economic Outlook report. Also by 2025, PwC analysis finds that there could be slightly more people renting privately than owning with a mortgage. The number of households who own their home with a mortgage fell from around 10 million in 2001 to only around eight million in 2014. This is projected to decline further to just under 7.2 million by 2025 as limited housing supply and mortgage availability make it harder for first time buyers to get on the housing ladder. There will also be record numbers of people owning their own home outright. This accounts now for 8.4 million households and PwC projects this will rise to 10.6 million households by 2025, around 35% of the total. A key driver is the rising proportion of over 60 year olds in the UK, who are far more likely to have paid off their mortgages. ‘Driven by a decade of soaring house prices pre-crisis and lower loan to value ratios post crisis, the deposits needed by first time buyers have risen significantly. As a result, a generation of private renters have emerged and this will increasingly be the norm for the 20 to 39 age group,’ said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC. ‘There is also a rising dichotomy in the market between those, mostly older, households who own outright and those, mostly younger, households who still have a mortgage or rent to pay,’ he explained. ‘Overall, we project that the proportion of owner occupiers,… Continue reading
Year on year US foreclosure inventory falls for 43rd month in a row
Foreclosure inventory in the United States has fallen for 43 consecutive months, year on year, down to just 1.3% of homes. The latest data from CoreLogic shows that national foreclosure inventory fell by 27.4% in May compared with the previous year to approximately 491,000 homes. Also in May 2015, the 12 month sum of completed foreclosures fell by 18.1% to 528,000, since May 2014 while the seriously delinquent inventory fell to 1.3 million loans, a 22.7% year on year decline. There were 47 states that posted year on year declines in the foreclosure inventory, and 27 of those states had decreases of more than 20% while only three states had year on year increases. The five states with the largest year on year drop in the foreclosure inventory were Florida with a fall of 47%, Connecticut at 36.5%, Idaho at 35.6, Washington at 35.3% and Illinois at 34.5%. The District of Columbia saw a 22.5% rise and the three states with foreclosure inventory growth were Massachusetts up 22.4%, Wyoming up 18.2% and South Dakota up 1.1%. Judicial foreclosure states continued to have higher foreclosure rates in May 2015 than non-judicial states, averaging 2.2% and 0.7% percent, respectively. The data also shows that the foreclosure rate for judicial states peaked in February 2012 at 5.4% while non-judicial states experienced peak foreclosure rates of 2.5% in January 2011. As of May 2015 some 42% of outstanding mortgages were in judicial states, but 71% of total loans in foreclosure were in those states. Continue reading
European Bank measures risk house price bubbles in UK, Germany and Norway
Quantitative easing by the European Central Bank could drive prices even higher in overvalued property markets in Germany, Norway and the UK, a new analysis suggests. House prices in these countries have risen quickly over the last year and a half and as a result the risk of house prices bubbles have re-emerged, according to a report from Moody’s Analytics. It explains that while the International Monetary Fund’s Global Housing Watch shows prices rising, it is case of a two speed market. Some have rebounded quickly after just moderate price declines during the financial crisis, the other group is still recovering from much steeper price drops. The first group includes Germany, the UK and Norway where house prices have shot up over the last few quarters and where the formation of a housing bubble is a real possibility and QE feeds asset bubbles, the report points out. Since March every month the EWCB has been buying €60 billion worth of euro-denominated assets issued by euro one governments, agencies, and European institutions and the programme will last at least until September 2016. This has seen yields on the government debt of countries viewed by investors as safe fall and this in turn has encouraged investment in property markets which yield higher returns. In Germany, house prices have been steadily rising since the middle of 2009 as its property market is viewed as a safe haven investment in an environment of increased uncertainty. Indeed, Germany was one of the few European countries to avoid a housing market slump during the 2008/2009 downturn, thanks to prudent bank lending regulation. However, the report says that growing demand for German properties is leading to overvaluation, especially given the insufficient supply. Only recently has construction finally picked up. In the first half of this year, German building authorities granted 10% more building permits than in the same period a year earlier. But it will take a few years before supply catches up to demand. German house prices have therefore been rising more quickly than rents and incomes. Although the price-to-income and price to rent ratios are still relatively low compared with Germany’s long term average, the report says that if this trend persists the housing market could overheat. While the outright risk of a housing bubble forming in Germany is relatively low, the Bundesbank is monitoring the situation. So far, it has not intervened. However, in the UK the authorities are doing so. Last year the Bank of England in 2014 warned of a possible housing bubble which could derail the country’s recovery and introduced tighter mortgage loan standards designed to reduce the supply of credit, taking some heat out of the housing market. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority also introduced stricter underwriting rules for mortgages to ensure that banks assess borrowers’ ability to repay loans after interest rates start to rise. Yet loan standards are still relatively loose, largely the result of the UK government’s Help… Continue reading
