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Home owners in London most confident about house price growth
Households across the UK perceived that the value of their home rose in December, led by those in London while households in the North East reported no change in prices. Some 11.1% of individuals said they plan to buy a house within the next two years, but this was down from a 12 month average of 12.8% according to the House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. December’s reading was a slight increase from the 58.7 recorded in November and was higher than the average reading of 58.5 recorded across 2015. However, it remained below the peak of 63.2 achieved in May last year, reflecting the more modest house price growth seen across the country over the last 12 months. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, was unchanged in December compared to the previous month. An index reading of 70.3 was the joint second highest of the year. Households in 10 of the eleven regions covered by the index reported that prices rose in December, led by households in London at 68.7. In the North East a reading of 50 and households perceived no change in prices over the course of the month. This is only the third time that a region within Great Britain has reported no change or a fall in prices since August 2013. There are a number of regional differences in expectations for price growth with households in London at 77.9, the South East at 76.7 and the East of England at 74.5 the most confident that prices will rise over the next 12 months. Mortgage borrowers were the most confident that prices will rise over the next year at 76.1, followed by those who own their home outright at 74.9. ‘The localised nature of the housing market is highlighted in the index, with the regional difference between households’ perceptions of house price changes in December at its greatest for nearly 18 months. This regionalised picture is expected to continue next year, with households’ in London expecting the strongest growth in prices in 2016,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘The supply of housing coming onto the market has dipped to record lows in recent months – affecting the ability of families to move up and down the housing ladder. The survey suggests this trend is also set to continue, with a lack of available housing also likely to continue to underpin pricing in many areas,’ she added. According to Tim Moore, a senior economist at Markit, UK households seem to anticipate little fundamental change in prevailing supply and demand dynamics over the course of 2016. He pointed out that buoyant forecasts were reported for property values over the next 12 months, with expectations at a remarkably similar level to those seen at the end of 2013 and 2014. ‘At the same time, the proportion of UK… Continue reading
Average rents in England and Wales fall almost 1%, down under £700 per month
Average rents across England and Wales fell by 0.9% in November but are up 4% compared to a year ago with London rents even higher with 8.9% growth year on year. This takes the average rent to £799 a month which means they have fallen below the psychologically important £800 mark, according to the latest buy to let index from Your Move and Reeds Rains. Average rents now stand at £799 per month. This follows a month-on-month fall of 1.2% – down from September’s all-time record high of £816. Despite month-on-month falls, rents have risen considerably over the course of the last twelve months. Across England & Wales annual rent rises stand at 4.0%, comparing November 2015 with November 2014. Taking into account CPI inflation of 0.1%, this leaves real-terms annual rent rises of 3.9%. Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Reeds Rains and Your Move, pointed out that while rents are cooling right now this could be different next year when the new 3% extra stamp duty becomes payable on buy to let properties as this could force rents upwards again. A breakdown of the figures shows that six out of 10 regions seen rents fall on a monthly basis, Wales has seen rents rise by 2.9%, the East Midlands by 1%, the West Midlands by 0.4% and Yorkshire and the Humber by 0.2%. On the back of this, both Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands have seen fresh record rents of £554 and £610 respectively. By contrast southern regions have led the downturn in rents downwards. The South East saw rents fall by 3% month on month and they were down 2% in the South West and 1.2% in London. However, year on year rents are 8.9% higher in London and 8.4% in the East of England. They are also up 5.1% in the East Midlands. By contrast Wales has seen rents drop 3.8% in the space of 12 months and the South East is down 3.5%. The index also shows that the gross yield on a typical rental property in England and Wales, before taking into account factors such as void periods, dropped to 5% in November, down from 5.1% in October 2015. This is also higher than the 5.1% gross yield seen a year ago in November 2014. Accelerating property purchase prices have boosted landlords’ finances, despite suppressing rental yields. Taking into account both rental income and such capital growth, the average landlord in England and Wales has seen total returns of 10.9% over the 12 months ending November 2015, up from 10.4% in October 2015. In absolute terms this means that the average landlord in England and Wales has seen a return of £19,668, before any deductions such as property maintenance and mortgage payments. Of this, the average capital gain contributed £11,057 while rental income made up £8,611 over the… Continue reading
Auckland sees residential construction work double in four years
The value of construction in most regions in New Zealand increased in the third quarter of 2015 with Auckland seeing a new high of $943 million worth of residential work, up $107 million from a year ago. Overall building work worth $4.2 billion was put in place in the September 2015 quarter, up 4% on the September 2014 quarter, according to official figures from Statistics New Zealand. ‘The value of building work increased in most regions. Similar to last quarter, residential work grew most in Auckland, while non-residential work grew most in Canterbury,’ said Statistics New Zealand business indicators manager Neil Kelly. In Auckland, a new series high of $943 million worth of residential building work was recorded in the September 2015 quarter, up $107 million from a year ago. The current quarter's value is double what it was four years ago in the September 2011 quarter. After removing price changes and seasonal variations, the national volume of all building activity increased 0.5%, following a 1.6% increase in the June 2015 quarter. Within this, the volume of residential work increased 2.9% while non-residential work fell 2.6%. The volume trend for non-residential building activity grew 0.4% in the September 2015 quarter, a similar level as the previous series high in the March 2006 quarter. Meanwhile, the residential building activity volume trend grew 1.4% in the latest quarter, but the level was still 6.3% lower than the June 2004 quarter peak. The overall building activity volume trend grew to a level last seen 10 years ago in the June 2005 quarter, the previous series peak. Meanwhile, official data also shows that all 16 regions of New Zealand are projected to have more households in 2038 than in 2013 and most territory authority areas (TAs) will also have more households. The Auckland region is projected to account for about half of the national growth in the number of households between 2013 and 2038, increasing from 500,000 to 750,000. Over the same period, the region is projected to account for roughly 60% of New Zealand's population growth. By 2038, some 35% of all households in New Zealand will be in the Auckland region, up from 30% in 2013. Continue reading
