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Rents in central London’s prime market down but activity is stronger

Rental values in the prime central London lettings market fell by 3.6% in the year to July 2016 but activity is stronger than last summer, the latest index shows. Values were down due to higher stock levels and a degree of uncertainty surrounding the European Union referendum result, according to the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. Where the rental value is regarded by prospective tenants as being right properties are being taken up and the number of tenancies agreed in the three months to June rose 3% compared to 2015 and viewings increased 15.8%, the data from Knight Frank also shows While overall the number of new prospective tenants fell 6.8% over the same period, the number of tenancies started via Knight Frank’s corporate relocation service increased 72% in the same period but prime gross rental yields were flat at 3.1%. According to Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, there are parallels between the lettings and sales markets because the Brexit vote has reinforced the existent pricing trends rather alter market fundamentals. ‘Demand has been relatively flat since the start of the year due to uncertainty surrounding the state of the global economy, particularly in the financial services sector, which contributed towards a slowdown in rental value growth from its last peak of 4.2% in May 2015,’ he said. ‘This trend has been compounded by higher levels of supply as stock has moved across from the sales market, with more vendors becoming landlords due to weaker conditions in the prime sales markets,’ he pointed out. ‘In the three months to the end of June this year, the number of new rental properties placed on the market rose by 49% compared to the same period last year. As a result, landlords are reducing asking rents to prevent void periods and tenants are becoming more selective,’ he explained. Indeed, properties where the asking rent is perceived as too high are struggling to get viewings and Bill believes that the referendum result has simply reinforced this dynamic and landlords are increasingly taking a pragmatic approach to asking rents against the background of wider Brexit uncertainty and rising stock levels. He also pointed out that despite the three month decline in the number of new prospective tenants registering, the expectation is that rental volumes will continue to rise over the summer and into the autumn. ‘The uncertainty ahead of the Brexit vote could be an explanatory factor for weaker registrations, although early signs are positive with no significant announcements that companies are pulling back from relocating staff to London following the referendum,’ he added. Knight Frank also found that relocation budgets in many cases have risen due to the effects of a weaker Sterling, which means tenants are looking in higher-value areas and at higher value properties compared to last year. The number of new prospective tenants registering with a budget of £1,500 plus per week increased 11% in the three… Continue reading

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‘Deep-Pocketed’ UK Land Investors Hit 3-Year High

The number of large investors queuing to buy UK farmland has hit its highest in three years, but demand is focused on high-quality arable operations, whose premium over low-quality grassland continues to increase. Savills, the land consultancy, said that the number of investors with £5m-10m to spend on farmland had risen to its highest quarterly total in three years, some 13% above the average. “There has been an increase in the number of applicants who have deeper pockets for buying farmland”, said the group, which has investors with some £6bn to spend on farmland on its books. “A large proportion of these funds will still be available into next year,” given the shortage of farmland for sale, with the supply of 128,000 hectares in the first nine months “historically low”, the group said. What is in demand However, buyers were focused on high quality arable farms, particularly in the east of England – a factor reflected in price growth which has hit 8.5% in the January-to-September period, taking average values nearly to £8,300 an acre. That includes growth of 2.3% in the latest quarter. “What they want is top quality, big farms, that will give them price appreciation and a bit of yield,” Ian Bailey, Savills’ head of rural research, told Agrimoney.com. “They are looking for big blocks of arable land. It is that market which has been doing best.” Regional gap However, there were differences within the market, with investors preferring the east of England which government data last week reaffirmed as the best yielding for wheat, with an average of 7.9 tonnes per hectare. That increased its advantage over wetter western areas, which were hurt particularly by the wet spell in 2012 and in the early months of 2013, with north west yields this year averaging 5.4 tonnes per hectare. In the land market, while prime arable farms in the east of England land appreciated by 4.6% in the July-to-September quarter, the market in western areas, including Wales, stagnated. Indeed, in Wales, research “indicates no change in prime arable values since December”, leaving them at about £7,000 an acre. ‘Really sluggish’ In the market for smaller and grassland farms too, and those where residential assets make up a large proportion of the overall value, activity “is really sluggish”, Mr Bailey said. “For a stock farm of 150 acres, you are probably looking at sub-5% price growth, compared with 8-10% for the top end.” The group said it was “comfortable” with its forecast for farmland values overall rising by 8.8% this year, but acknowledged that prices of top arable operations, and “the best” dairy farms, would see stronger growth. Continue reading

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