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Analysis suggests Brexit will have a varied impact on London property markets

The decision by the UK to leave the European Union is set to have a hugely varied impact across London's property markets with some likely to be worse off than others. According to a new analysis from independent property buying agency Black Bric, the sub-£2 million price bracket will continue to attract investors due to its favourable yields, good liquidity, and domestic demand. But the firm’s managing director Camilla Dell predicts that the same can't be said for the prime property market in London and the new build outer prime markets. ‘We expect the section of the market dominated by domestic buyers and those working in the financial services sector, predominantly £2million to £5 million but also up to the £12million to £15 million range, to potentially face some pressure linked to Brexit concerns,’ said Dell. ‘We do not expect the wholesale flight of financial services firms away from London, but it is likely that they will lose their passporting rights, or their ability to sell financial services across the EU if the UK does leave, triggering the departure of some financial services capacity to Dublin or the continent,’ she explained. ‘However, even relatively low numbers of bankers leaving areas such as South Kensington or Notting Hill where Europeans, in particular, tend to be concentrated could have a significant effect on local markets over the next couple of years,’ she added. Black Brick also expects the new-build outer prime market to suffer most from continuing uncertainty, having already experienced a lull period before the referendum vote. ‘The stock market has already heavily bid down builders linked to this part of the market, which is suffering from significant oversupply and the disappearance of the foreign investors who had supported it in recent years,’ said Dell. ‘Areas such as Nine Elms in Vauxhall and Earls Court in West London are particularly vulnerable due to oversupply of expensive properties aimed at the overseas investor. However, there are a handful of stand out developments, such as Television Centre, that we believe are likely to continue to prove popular, and there will certainly be bargains to be had, particularly on the secondary market,’ she pointed out. On the other hand, Black Brick expects the super prime market to be the least negatively affected, with the collapse of the sterling meaning that dollar buyers are actually factoring in a 12.5% increase in their purchasing power since before the referendum. ‘For the global elite buying properties at £15 million to £20 million or above, purchases tend to be about lifestyle choices, rather than business decisions, or are to diversify extremely large portfolios. Indeed, we are still seeing transactions continue. Brexit did not feature in conversations with clients in this part of the market before the referendum, and it is unlikely to be much of a factor now it is underway,’ Dell added. Meanwhile, London’s new Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray has said there will be meeting with major developers and the… Continue reading

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Rental supply in the UK continues to fall, latest analysis report shows

The supply of residential rental properties in the UK has continued to fall but this comes at a time when rental costs are expected to rise. Overall the number of rental properties managed per lettings agents branch increased by 8% in April to the highest level this year but is down from April 2015, according to the data from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA). The jump from March this year follows a rush from buy to let landlords pushing to complete sales ahead of the April stamp duty increase deadline, the ARLA report says. But supply still stands at 5% lower than in April last year and continues to fall year on year. In April 2015, the average number of properties managed per branch was 193, this year it stands at 183. Demand is also falling year on year: In April, the number of prospective tenants per branch was 34, down from 33 the previous month and down from 36 April of last year. Meanwhile, rent costs expected to rise following buy to let stamp duty rise. Some 66% of ARLA agents predicted that the stamp duty reforms will push rent costs up for tenants down the line. ARLA agents also reported an increase in the number of landlords selling their buy to let properties. An average of four, up from three in March, are pulling out of the market, showing an increase for the first time in a year. ‘It’s likely that this increase in supply is only temporary. At the end of April we saw a flurry of landlords seizing the last few moments before the stamp duty rise to complete sales, triggering an increase in the supply of empty rental homes to be filled this month,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘However, we expect that fewer investors will be taking on buy to let properties over the next six months, following the price hikes, meaning that once these properties are filled we’ll see supply nose dive once again,’ he added. Continue reading

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Average house prices in British seaside towns up over 30% in 10 years

House prices have increased by 32% across British seaside towns over the past decade, amounting to £440 per month, according to the latest research. The annual Halifax Seaside Town Review revealed average house prices have grown from £166,565 in 2006 to £219,386 in 2016, equivalent to an average increase of £440 per month. Scottish seaside towns dominate the list of areas with the greatest price growth, with seven of the top 10 located in Aberdeenshire, which for much of the period has been well served by growth in the oil and gas sector. Fraserburgh has seen the greatest house price growth with a rise of 139%, from £63,540 in 2006 to £151,719 in 2016, equivalent to a monthly increase of £735. In Macduff, average property value doubled from £66,226 to £133,567 or 102%, followed by Peterhead up 95%, Cove Bay up 94% and Newtonhill up 91%. Brighton recorded the greatest increase in value outside of Scotland with prices up 59% from £214,863 to £341,235 over the decade. Other seaside towns in England with the best price performance include Whitstable in Kent up 53%, Shoreham on Sea in West Sussex also up 53%, Leigh on Sea in Essex up 52% and Truro in Cornwall up 50%. Despite the growth of property values in Scottish seaside towns over the past 10 years, nine of the 10 most expensive seaside towns in Britain are on the South coast with eight in the South West. The most expensive seaside town is Sandbanks in Poole, where the average house price is £664,655. Sandbanks knocked Salcombe off the top spot, a position which Salcombe, in the South Devon Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, has had since 2010. Other most expensive seaside towns located in the South West include Padstow with an average price of £443,396, Dartmouth at £401,361 and Fowey at £379,003. Aldeburgh in Suffolk at £439,379 and Lymington in Hampshire at £426,112 are the most expensive seaside towns outside the South West. ‘Seaside towns are highly popular places to live, offering sought after scenery, weather and lifestyle which no doubt come at a price. They also attract those looking for holiday properties, which add upward pressure on house prices, which our research shows have increased by an average of £440 per month since 2006,’ said Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax. Despite the price performance nine of the least expensive seaside towns are in Scotland. There is a marked difference in price at top and bottom end of the scale, with the least expensive town Port Bannatyne on the Isle of Bute at £77,132. Seven of the least expensive are in western Scotland, including Girvan at £91,912, Campbeltown at £91,938 and Saltcoats at £93,479. Newbiggin by the Sea in Northumberland at £81,259 is the least expensive seaside town in England. The research found 11 seaside towns in total with an average price below £100,000. ‘Over the 10 year period, coastal towns north of the border… Continue reading

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