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Demand for UK farmland falls as supply rises, says RICS report

The supply of farmland in the UK increased sharply during the first half of 2015, as demand growth moderated, according to the latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). An increase in the supply of commercial farmland, coupled with a tailing off in demand growth across many parts of the country, has resulted in a significant reduction in price growth expectations, the report says. Meanwhile, demand from lifestyle buyers continued to increase, and a net balance of 18% of respondents said that they expect the price of residential farmland to continue to rise over the year to come. During the first half of 2015, a net balance of 51% of respondents reported an increase in the supply of commercial farmland while demand for these blocks declined, albeit very modestly, for the first time since 2008. Scotland and the North East of England saw a reduction in demand not just for commercial but also residential farmland, while the results for South West and the East Midlands suggests demand is still edging upwards. Simon Rubinsohn said it is significant that the headline transaction based measure of farmland prices fell by 2.5% during the first six months of the year and by 1% over the course of the year to reach £9,692 per acre. Average rents also slipped during the first half of the year both for arable and pasture land, reflecting the weaker to many commodity markets. ‘We are seeing a considerable divergence in the outlook for commercial farmland compared to land with a significant residential component,’ Rubinsohn pointed out. Annual average arable land rents fell by 7% during the first half of the year and by 9.7% over the year, with anecdotal evidence suggesting the recent falls in commodity prices are the primary cause of this decline. ‘Despite this, the lifestyle market remains relatively strong across much of the country with the price of land with a large residential component generally expected to continue moving higher,’ said Rubinsohn. ‘Political uncertainly leading up to the general election is likely to have had some further impact on the results in the survey, however market conditions look set to remain challenging notwithstanding the outcome with the global economic environment set to remain a drag on commodity prices,’ he concluded. Continue reading

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UK housing demand reaches 11 year high

Housing demand in the UK continues to growth, reaching an eleven year high in August, according to the latest monthly report from the National Association of Estate Agents. The number of house hunters registered per branch continued to grow this month, up 5%, to an average of 462 per branch compared to 439 in July. This is the highest recorded since August 2004, when an average 582 house hunters were recorded per NAEA branch. Available housing also increased in July, jumping 25% from an average of 44 properties available per NAEA member branch in June, to 55 in July. These levels have not been seen in almost two years, when 57 houses on average per branch were recorded in September 2013. However, the number of sales made in July remained static from May and June, with just nine per branch, indicating that although housing stock is starting to increase, it remains a struggle to complete a purchase. The July Housing Market Report also reveals that the number of sales made to first time buyers continued to fall in July, with the group now accounting for just 23% sales. This has fallen from 24% in June and 29% in May. However, it is an increase on last year, when only 20% of sales were made to first time buyers in July 2014. ‘Typically, we’d expect to see sales taking longer to complete during the summer months, as buyers and sellers are on holiday. It is alarming however, that the number of sales being made to first time buyers is steadily falling,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘Having said that, the fact that there is more housing coming on to the market means that hopefully over the next few months we’ll see activity in the market increasing and more sales completing, to respond to the growing army of house hunters we’ve seen emerging over the last few months,’ he pointed out. ‘The truth of the matter is though, there simply aren’t enough houses to meet growing demand, and until we see more physical bricks and mortar, there may be no hope in solving the housing crisis,’ he explained. ‘It’s also alarming that the number of sales being made to first time buyers is steadily falling; with reports of house prices increasing and expectations of rising in the future, first time buyers will continue to be pushed out of the market,’ he added. Continue reading

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Property sales fell back in UK in July, latest transaction data shows

Property sales in the UK fell back between June and July by 4.4%, according to the latest seasonally adjusted estimate from HMRC. There were a total of 100,720 residential transactions and 10,100 others in July, the data shows, some 0.2% higher compared with the same month last year. Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of agents Marsh & Parsons, pointed out that it is the first rise on an annual basis for this measure for seven successive months. ‘In July, sales may have slipped back slightly month on month, but we need to remember that the market was working overtime in June to regain ground lost before the election,’ he said. He explained that ever since the changes to stamp duty at the end of 2014 property taxation has become more of a sticking point in London, and here buyer demand has slowed somewhat at the top-end. ‘It will take a while for these changes to fully bed in, and in the meantime house price rises and property sales in the capital may be outshone by other UK regions for the months to come,’ he said. ‘But that’s not to say they’ve fallen out of line and with an average 12 buyers chasing every available property on the market, the strength of the demand for homes in London will continue to push growth up a gear,’ he added. Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of conveyancing services provider myhomemove, also believes that the general election has been a factor affecting the property market in recent months. ‘The general election’s outcome assured buyers and sellers that the housing market was likely to remain stable, leading to a spike in the number of property transactions in June. Today’s HMRC figures show that the number of transactions has barely changed over the last year and this begs the question about why a year’s steady improvement in the economy hasn’t led to an increase in home purchases, particularly when mortgage availability and rates have been so favourable,’ he said. ‘The main impediment has been a serious shortage in supply. There is a lot of appetite from buyers but not enough homes for sale to meet demand. This mismatch is stoking price rises. In some areas we have even seen instances of gazumping, as sellers look to make the most of competition between buyers by accepting higher offers,’ he explained. He believes that the big question looming in the background is the timing of an interest rate rise from the Bank of England. Many would be buyers are keen to purchase while mortgage rates are so low. Increased anticipation of rate rises is putting greater pressure on buyers and competition for homes for sale could drive up prices further in the short term,’ he added. Continue reading

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