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New analysis reveals severe home planning shortfall in England
The property planning shortfall in England could grow to 180,000 over the course of the next parliament unless local authorities work together, it is claimed. The planning system is not delivering housing where need and market demand is greatest, according to a new analysis from real estate firm Savills. Its shows that the number of homes planned by local authorities in England is likely to result in a shortfall of around 36,000 homes a year, unless local planning authorities take greater account of housing need both within and beyond their boundaries. ‘Failure to cooperate on housing requirements across local authority boundaries is likely to result in an accumulated planning shortfall of 180,000 homes over the next five years. This is before we consider what house builders and other developers can deliver relative to these targets,’ the report points out. Figures shows that last year building starts reached 136,000 in England. However, according to analysis undertaken on behalf of the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA), at least 240,000 new homes a year in England are needed from now to 2031. The greatest requirement is in London and the South East where the property market has been strongest. However, the Savills analysis shows that these are the areas where the deficiency in the number of homes being planned is likely to be the greatest. Housing targets adopted so far are 80% of the corresponding Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) figures across the country. ‘A continuation of this trend would result in a shortfall of 26,000 homes a year in the south and east of England, including London. This figure equates to 74% of total housing shortfall for the whole of England,’ the report says. Of a total 114 local authorities in the south and east of England, 31 or 27% have neither an adopted local plan nor a recent SHMA published since the National Policy Planning Framework (NPPF) was introduced in 2012, the report points out. Yet these local authorities currently accommodate a quarter of all existing households in the region and will face pressure to meet the requirements for housing emerging from London and surrounding local authorities,’ it adds. The 31 local authorities without post-NPPF local plans include Sevenoaks, Elmbridge and Epping Forest. These are strong housing markets where over 50% of the authority is designated as green belt. Shortfalls are less pronounced in the North, Midlands and west of England. Assuming targets adopted by the local authorities that still lack a post-NPPF plan are 80% of their SHMA, the annual planning shortfall could amount to 7,349 homes in the Midlands and west of England and 2,038 in the North. Despite the increase in planning permissions towards 200,000 homes per year in England last year, 20,000 were granted through appeal. A closer analysis reveals persistent problems in maintaining an adequate supply of land for housing and that this problem is most notable where the level of housing need is greatest. Continue reading
Property prices and rents holding steady in the Gulf region
Residential property prices in Dubai have increased 1.5% year on year, led by villas, with apartment seeing prices grow at a slower rate, according to the latest index. Apartment prices increased by just 0.8% compared with a year ago in March but increased 1.74% month on month, the data from ReidIn shows. Villa prices were up 4.5% year on year but month on month fell by 0.24%. The data also shows that rental prices fell by 0.29% but have increased 5.4% year on year. A breakdown of the figures shows that apartment rents decreased 0.2% on a monthly basis but are up 6.3% year on year. Villa rents have been much more stable in the last 12 months, up by 1% year on year and down by 0.25% month on month. Meanwhile, in neighbouring Abu Dhabi prices fell by of 0.48% in March 2015 but were up 0.4% compared to March 2014. Apartment prices were down 0.60% month on month and decreased 1.8% year on year while villa prices fell 0.4& compared to February but increased 0.9% year on year. In the rental market prices fell 0.75% in March but are still up 2% compared to March 2014. Apartment rents were down 0.45% month on month and down 2.6% year on year while villa rents fell 1.04% month on month but are up 4.7% year on year. Elsewhere in the Gulf region the Saudi Arabian market has seen variable real estate performance. Over the past year, residential prices in Riyadh have risen by 5% to 7% overall but there have been variable performances across the capital’s districts, according to the latest report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that congestion issues in the south, for example, have resulted in prices stagnating while in the north, which has seen notable development activity, prices have increased by around 9%. ‘In the short to medium term, with new supply unlikely to be able to fully offset pent-up demand, we expect residential prices to continue to move in an upward direction,’ said Stefan Burch, Knight Frank partner for Saudi Arabia advisory services. The report points out that in recent year Saudi Arabia’s residential construction sector has been expanding rapidly. Indeed, the latest available data shows that the value of residential building construction across the kingdom rose for the ninth consecutive year in 2012, increasing by 11.4% year on year to SAR95.6 billion. ‘Not surprisingly, Riyadh is an important driver of construction activity in Saudi Arabia. The capital accounted for an average of 27% of all residential and commercial permits issued across the kingdom between 2003 and 2013. Moreover, the number of permits issued in the capital rose by 319% over the 10 year period, outperforming Saudi Arabia as a whole, which experienced a 215% increase,’ explained Burch. Despite rising development activity however, demand for residential units continues to outstrip supply in Riyadh. Indeed, the capital has a requirement for around 50,000 housing units per annum… Continue reading
British prime farm land values continue to rise, but at a much slower pace
Prime farm land values in Great Britain increased by 0.5% to £9,900 per acre, much slower than previous quarters in recent years, the latest available data shows. According to the Farmland Value Survey from Savills it suggests that the ‘bull run’, driven by the top end of the market, in average capital value growth is slowing. In the first quarter of 2014 and 2013 the corresponding figures were 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. Quarter one growth was principally concentrated in the southern regions of England and in the East Midlands, where quality farms and estates dominated the market. Average prime arable farmland growth in these regions was 0.4% in the South East, 3.5% in the South West and 0.6% in the East Midlands. All other regions recorded zero growth and the data also shows that values continue to be highest in the East of the country. It points out that average values continue to mask the diversity in the market with sales at values in excess of £15,000 per acre being achieved for the right farms. ‘This end of the market continues to be driven by quality and location with large commercial arable farms and high quality estates attracting the strongest demand,’ the report says. ‘The trend of limited supply continues and, whilst remaining historically low, shows a slight increase on the first quarter of 2014. Supply remains at close to the lowest levels ever recorded, similar to 2001 during the foot-and-mouth outbreak and 2004 during the run-up to the introduction of the Single Farm Payment Scheme,’ the Savills report explains. It also points out that the lack of clarity surrounding the potential outcome of the general election coupled with pressure on farm incomes is creating some uncertainty. Overall just over 15,250 acres of farmland were publicly marketed across Great Britain during the first quarter of 2015, a 9% rise, amounting to 1,320 acres, on the same period of 2014. In the first quarter of this year the increased activity was concentrated in England with 26% whilst the levels of supply continued to fall in Scotland by 10% and Wales by 53%. Across England there were some significant regional differences during the quarter. Large increases in supply were recorded in the East Midlands at 280% and the South East of England at 362%. In the South East of England activity was boosted by two large properties in Hampshire at 1,600 and 1,000 acres. In contrast, decreases in the supply of farmland were recorded in the East of England with a fall of 30%, the North of England down 37% and also in the South West of England with a fall of 11%. Although activity in the South East of England was dominated by two large farms the market in the first quarter predominantly consisted of a larger number of smaller farms suggesting that pressure on incomes and cash flows may be having some effect Savills does not expect a significant change in the overall levels in the… Continue reading
