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Farmland Prices Expected To Rise Further
Farmland prices have increased over the course of a decade driven primarily by commercial demand and are expected to rise further, according The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. At regional level, the price of an acre of land in the North West increased by 35% over the first half to reach £8,813, the most expensive of all the regions now, while Scotland remains the cheapest with a value of £4,438. The strength of commercial farmland demand is not broad-based. Indeed, surveyors note that farmers in the main are discriminating in favour of large, top quality, neighbouring plots with as small a residential component as possible. As such, there is considerable price dispersion, even in the same areas; plots that are smaller and of lower soil quality are attracting much less interest and achieving lower average per acre prices. Looking forward, surveyors are very optimistic about commercial farmland price prospects over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, price expectations in the residential arena, whilst relatively modest, have turned positive for the first time since H2 2010. This may reflect developments in the broader national housing market. “We have seen some exceptional transactions during H1 of 2013 with the larger sales being dealt with ‘off market’ showing the strength of land as a safe haven and hedge against economic ills,” Richard Liddiard from Carter Jonas. “Whilst the UK economy is showing the green shoots of recovery I am still of the opinion that we are at the peak of the market for average or less well equiped farms. This will indicate that the best in class will still rise in value and be keenly sought after by the non-farming investors who are seeking the safe haven status and IHT tax advantages that land offers. We are also seeing more farms in the market and there are some holdings that are sticking particularly if they are overpriced or do not have strong local demand to push the values higher.” Ben Taylor from Bidwells, Cambridge, said: “We have seen a moderate increase in market activity but still a distinct shortage of good quality commercial arable holdings being sold publicly and generally prices have continued to increase. Latterly, non-farming investors seem to have been edging the competition from farmer-purchasers. Demand for holdings with a weighty residential element remains somewhat selective.” James Denne from Knight Frank said: “Demand for arable land remains constant. Grass farms are harder to move on unless good additional income streams. Over pricing is still an issue.” David Powell from Powells, said: “Continued demand for good well located blocks of good land close to farming base of purchasers. Good grazing/mowing land and arable land selling well and at premium values where local demand is strong. Little interest in poor land and less amenity purchasers/local investors competing with agricultural purchasers in the market.” The survey’s transaction based measure of farmland prices (which includes the value of on-site residences if they account for less than 50% of the total value of the sale) rose by around 5% over the period to £8,742 per acre. The opinions based measure (which is a hypothetical estimate by surveyors of the value of pure bare land) increased by around 10% to £7,441 per acre. The variation between the two can be partly explained by their different methodologies i.e. the residential element in the transactions based measure is likely to increase average per acre prices. Continue reading
Fragrances: Middle Eastern Influences Dominate In The Coming Season
Posted on 25 August 2013 THIS year, the stars of the perfume world are scents traditionally associated with the Middle East, such as the once rare and expensive oud wood essence. This fragrant resin features a rich array of nuances, including of wood, leather and animalic notes. Several European fragrance houses have experimented with oud wood recently, creating warm and exotic perfumes. We take a look at some of the most remarkable fragrances of the season illustrating this trend. Musk Oud by Kilian One of the first European perfumers to draw inspiration from Middle Eastern traditions, Kilian presented the first fragrance from its Arabian Nights collection in 2010. Today, the line consists of five fragrances, all with oud wood at their core. The latest essence from the line, Musk Oud was launched last June. The nose Alberto Morillas prepared this intoxicating blend of lemon and mandarin notes, complemented by spicy cardamom and coriander, all over a base of sensual oud wood. The fragrance is priced at €295 for 50 ml. Damask & Oud by Hugo Boss The lifestyle brand released its Damask & Oud eau de toilette June 1 through its luxury menswear label, BOSS The Collection. Available only in an exclusive set of department stores, the fragrance is based on fine and rare essences including white pepper, saffron, rose, oud wood, guaiac wood and papyrus. The eau de toilette is priced at €110 for 50 ml. Flowerbomb Rose Explosion by Viktor & Rolf The famous Dutch designers have issued a new version of their popular 2005 perfume, Flowerbomb, which has been updated with oud wood and bears the name Flowerbomb Rose Explosion. On top of the fragrant woody essence, the perfume layers an ideal pairing of Turkish and Moroccan rose absolutes and a complex burst of mandarin, bergamot, saffron, jasmine, patchouli and amber notes. This new fragrance, launched in early August, is available at the price of €149 for 100 ml. Myrrhe Impériale by Armani Privé Giorgio Armani also pays homage to the Middle East in fragrance through the 1001 Nights collection, named for the folk tales of the Islamic Golden Age. Unlike its predecessor Oud Royal, released in 2012, the latest fragrance in this collection is not based on this year’s star essence but contains a masterful combination of other signature Middle Eastern notes, including benzoin, myrrh, pink pepper and saffron. Myrrhe Impériale eau de parfum will be available from the end of August, priced at €215 for 100 ml. Valentina Oud Assoluto by Valentino The Italian couture brand called upon world famous nose Olivier Cresp to concoct a new version of its signature feminine fragrance, Valentina, with a Middle Eastern twist. The new eau de toilette is based on an alliance of orange blossom and oud wood, with notes of cardamom, Bulgarian rose, leather, saffron and dry wood. The fragrance will be available from September, priced at €106 for 80 ml. – AFP Relaxnews Continue reading
Emerging Market Rout Threatens Wider Global Economy
The $9 trillion (£5.8 trillion) accumulation of foreign bonds by the rising powers of Asia, Latin America and the emerging world risks going into reverse as one country after another is forced to liquidate holdings to shore up its currency, threatening to inflict a credit shock on the global economy. Fears of Fed tightening have pushed borrowing costs worldwide to levels that could threaten global recovery Photo: AFP By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 8:38PM BST 22 Aug 2013 India’s rupee and Turkey’s lira both crashed to record lows on Thursday following the US Federal Reserve releasing minutes which signalled a wind-down of quantitative easing as soon as next month. Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s president, held an emergency meeting on Thursday with her top economic officials to halt the real’s slide after it hit a five-year low against the dollar. The central bank chief, Alexandre Tombini, cancelled his trip to the Fed’s Jackson Hole conclave in order “to monitor market activity” amid reports Brazil is preparing direct intervention to stem capital flight. The country has so far relied on futures contracts to defend the real – disguising the erosion of Brazil’s $374bn reserves – but this has failed to deter speculators. “They are moving currency intervention off balance sheet, but the net position is deteriorating all the time,” said Danske Bank’s Lars Christensen. A string of countries have been burning foreign reserves to defend exchange rates, with holdings down 8pc in Ecuador, 6pc in Kazakhstan and Kuwait, and 5.5pc in Indonesia in July alone. Turkey’s reserves have dropped 15pc this year. “Emerging markets are in the eye of the storm,” said Stephen Jen at SLJ Macro Partners. “Their currencies are in grave danger. These things always overshoot.” It was Fed tightening and a rising dollar that set off Latin America’s crisis in the early 1980s and East Asia’s crisis in the mid-1990s. Both episodes were contained, though not easily. Emerging markets have stronger shock absorbers today and largely borrow in their own currencies, making them less vulnerable to a dollar squeeze. However, they now make up half the world economy and are big enough to set off a crisis in the West. Fears of Fed tightening have pushed borrowing costs worldwide to levels that could threaten global recovery. Yields on 10-year bonds jumped 47 basis points to 12.29pc in Brazil on Thursday, 33 points to 9.72pc in Turkey, and 12 points to 8.4pc in South Africa. There had been hopes that the Fed might delay its tapering of bond purchases, chastened by the jump in long-term rates in the US itself. Ten-year US yields – the world’s benchmark price of money – have soared from 1.6pc to 2.9pc since early May. Hans Redeker from Morgan Stanley said a “negative feedback loop” is taking hold as emerging markets are forced to impose austerity and sell reserves to shore up their currencies, the exact opposite of what happened over the past decade as they built up a vast war chest of US and European bonds. The effect of the reserve build-up by China and others was to compress global bond yields, leading to property bubbles and equity booms in the West. The reversal of this process could be painful. “China sold $20bn of US Treasuries in June and others are doing the same thing. We think this is driving up US yields, and German yields are rising even faster,” said Mr Redeker. “This has major implications for the world. The US may be strong to enough to withstand higher rates, but we are not sure about Europe. Our worry is that a sell-off in reserves may push rates to levels that are unjustified for the global economy as a whole, if it has not happened already.” Sovereign bond strategist Nicolas Spiro said India is “caught between the Scylla of faltering growth and the Charybdis of currency depreciation” as hostile markets start to pick off any country with a large current account deficit. He said India’s central bank is playing with fire by reversing its tightening measures to fend off recession. It has instead set off a full-blown currency crisis that is crippling for companies with dollar debts. India is not alone. A string of countries across the world are grappling with variants of the same problem, forced to pick their poison. Continue reading
