Investment
First time US buyers rent an average of six years before buying a home
Americans are renting more than twice as long before buying their first home as they did in the 1970s, new research has found. Aspiring home buyers are now renting for six years compared to an average of 2.6 years compared to 40 years ago, according to an analysis from real estate firm Zillow. The analysis report also shows that first time buyers are older and less likely to be married than they were in the past and overall Americans are buying increasingly expensive first homes and spending more relative to their incomes than any time in the past 40 years. In the 1970s, first time buyers bought homes that cost about 1.7 times their annual income. Now they're buying homes that cost 2.6 times their annual income. The firm says that part of this can be attributed to the housing markets where people are moving which are more expensive cities on the coasts, where there are growing job markets. The average first time buyer is about 33 with a median income of $54,340, which is about the same as what first time buyers made in the 1970s, when adjusted for inflation. In the late 1980s, some 52% of first time buyers were married but today that has fallen to 40% married, the research also shows. ‘Millennials are delaying all kinds of major life decisions, like getting married and having kids, so it makes sense that they would also delay buying a home,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘We know millennials value home ownership and want to buy. The next challenge will be figuring out how they can save for a down payment and qualify for a mortgage, especially while the rental market is so unaffordable all over the country. The last hurdle will be finding a home they like amidst very tight inventory, especially among starter homes,’ added Gudell. Continue reading
UK residential property prices forecast for steady growth in next five years
House prices in the UK are expected to continue growing, with steady rises over the next five years across the country, the latest five year forecast shows. Cumulative growth in UK prices will total a little over 18% in the five years to the end of 2019, according to the latest forecast report from real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that while political risk for the prime London property market has fallen, affordability constraints will limit price growth in the near term, and predicts that overall UK rents and prime central London rents will rise 2.2% and 3.5% respectively in 2015. However, the risk that UK interest rates rise more rapidly than expected or that the global economy suffers a notable slowdown in activity remain the biggest risks to the UK housing market. It explains that the cumulative impact of recent and future reforms to Stamp Duty, mortgage interest relief for investors, Capital Gains Tax and IHT will take some time to work through the UK housing market. ‘Despite the pace of tax change, our view remains that it is interest rates and economic performance which will shape the outlook for prices and demand,’ the report adds. In the UK as a whole the forecast predicts house price growth of 3.5% for 2015, 2.5% next year, 3% in 2017, 4% in both 4.0% 2018 and 2019, to a cumulative 18.2% over five years. It also shows that while London saw growth of 17.8% in 2014 this is unlikely to be repeated with growth of 3.5%, 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 5.5% predicted. There is a similar pattern for the South East which saw growth of 10.6% last year, with the current forecast for 5% this year, 3% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017 and 5% for the two following years. The South West had growth of 8% in 2014 but this will fall to 4% this year, then 2.5%, 3%, 4.5% and the 4%. The prediction for East Anglia is 4.5% in 2015, followed by 3%, 3.5%, 4.5% and 5%, in the East Midlands the forecast is for 3.5%, 2%, 2.5% and then 4% in both 2018 and 2019 while in the West Midlands it is 3.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 4% and 4%. For the North East the forecast is even at 3% this year followed by 2% in 2016 and 2017, then 3% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019. In the North West it is 3%, 1.5%, 2%, 3.5% and 3.5% while in Yorkshire and the Humber the forecast is for growth of 3% this year, 2% in both 2016 and 2017 then 3.5% in both 2018 and 2019. Wales saw annual price growth of just 1.4% in 2014 but this is expected to rise to 3% this year followed by 2% in 2016, 2.5% in 2017 and then 4% in both 2018 and 2019. Scotland is forecast to have growth of 3.5% this year, 2.5% in 2016, 3% in 2017 and then 4% in both… Continue reading
Annual house price growth varies across the UK, latest ONS index shows
Annual house price growth in the UK is going up and down according to region, varying between a fall of 0.6% to a rise of 9% year on year, according to the latest property index. Overall UK house prices increased by 5.7% in the year to June 2015, up from 5.6% in the year to May 2015, the data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows. A breakdown of the figures shows the strongest annual growth was in Northern Ireland at 9% while the weakest was on Scotland with a dip of 0.6%. In England growth was 6.1% and in Wales it was 0.8%. It is the first annual fall in prices in Scotland since September 2013, down from 2.2%, and prices were also down from 2.7% in Wales, and down from 11% in Northern Ireland while in England the annual rise was up from 5.8%. Annual house price increases in England were driven by a 9.2% increase in the East and a 7.7% increase in the South East. But excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 5.2% in the 12 months to June 2015. The ONS data also shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.4% between May and June 2015. In June 2015, prices paid by first time buyers were 5.1% higher on average than in June 2014 while for existing owners, prices increased by 6% for the same period. Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, pointed out that price rises in London continue to be overpowered by the East and South East for the moment. ‘Costlier property taxes at the highest rungs of the market have forced London off the boil, and dampened the appetite in the market momentarily,’ he said. But he pointed out that there are signs that London buyers are starting to take on board increased stamp duty costs, and during the second quarter of the year the firm saw buyer registrations increase by 17% up against a supply boost of just 10%. ‘This fundamental imbalance will ensure price growth simmers on into the autumn, and in the Prime market we’ve already seen property values start to solidify again, recording the first quarterly rise since September 2014,’ he added. Rob Weaver, director of property for residential investment platform Property Partner, believes that prices will keep going upward due to the imbalance in the market. ‘Demand continues to outstrip supply and this, with the odd blip or dip aside, can only mean one thing for property values,’ he said. He also pointed out that average price growth on new builds has been almost double that of pre-owned properties over the past year. ‘It’s a worry as this implies people are paying more of a premium on new builds, which could be a symptom of foreign investors tending to do less market research. It’s rather like buying a new car, once you put the keys in and drive… Continue reading
