Investment
Some home markets in the US are still struggling to recover, latest index suggests
More than a quarter of homes across the United States lost value over the past year, despite the ongoing housing market recovery, according to the latest real estate market report. Some markets have already surpassed home values reached at the height of the housing bubble, while other markets are struggling to leave the recession behind, the analysis from real estate firm Zillow shows. Nationally, homes appreciated 3.3% from a year ago, rising to a Zillow Home Value Index of $180,800. However, the national growth rate has levelled off over the past five months, suggesting the housing recovery is ending and the market is returning to normal. Overall some 27.9% of homes lost value over the past year. Before the housing market crashed, an average of 21.2% of homes were losing value and in December 2008 some 81.6% of homes lost value, the highest amount during the recession. Markets on the East Coast and in the Midwest had the highest share of homes that lost value, led by 48.1% of homes in Baltimore which saw prices fall over the past year. Philadelphia with 43.4% and Washington DC at 41.2% also had large shares of homes losing value. Conversely, few homes lost value in hot markets like Denver, Dallas, San Jose, and San Francisco, which all saw double digit home value growth over the past year. Just 1.5% of homes in Denver and 4% in Dallas were worth less in August 2015 than they were a year ago. ‘We're not going in reverse, but we are hitting the brakes a bit in some markets. It's easy to say the recession is over when a third of the biggest markets are more expensive now than ever before, but we're still seeing a number of homes losing value. The reality is there are still areas lagging behind in the recovery,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell The report suggests that renters looking to become home owners may find more opportunities in slower markets like Philadelphia. According to the January 2015 Zillow Housing Confidence Index when home values there were growing at 2.8% annually, eight percent of renters in the area said they planned to buy within a year. This jumped to 18% in the most recent survey, when home value growth was nearly flat at 0.3%. The index data also shows that rents are still growing faster than home values. The Zillow Rent Index rose 3.8% on an annual basis to $1,381, giving potential buyers another reason to consider entering the market. Continue reading
Three bed homes in UK see fastest rent rises, new index shows
UK rents are rising fastest for three bedroom homes with 4.6% year on year growth in August compared to a rise of 3.3% for all UK properties, according to a new index. The new index from Landbay Rental is the first to track rental trends to the county and London borough level in combination with the number of bedrooms. Areas where three bed rental growth is highest are mainly located within commutable distance of London, such as Windsor and Maidenhead up 22% to £1,936, Southend on Sea up 20% to £1,121 and Swindon up 13% to £813. The data shows that across the UK as a whole, rents climbed by 3.3% in the last year to £1,281 and this is well ahead of inflation but while rents continue to climb year on year, the rate at which they are growing has eased from a high of 4.9% in February. It also points out that average UK rents fell between May and July 2015, with August seeing the first monthly rise in rents since March. Across all property sizes, the top rental rises outside of London were Southend on Sea up 12.6%, York up 12.1% and Wrexham up 11.1%. At the other end the biggest fall was in Cheshire were rents were down 6.9%, Aberdeen City down 5.7% and Buckinghamshire down 3.5%. ‘At the national level, rents performed very strongly in 2014 after a dip in 2013. This year has seen rents continue to grow, but at a slower rate. The macro trends at the national level aren’t uniform when you drill into the local level and look at different types of property, which is why we want to establish a rental index that gives landlords, tenants and others interested in the private rented sector access to a more granular level of insight,’ said John Goodall, chief executive officer of Landbay. ‘For investors in the private rental sector, our data makes family homes in the south east look like an attractive proposition. As well as performing well now, rents for three bedroom homes saw the smallest falls when rents dipped in 2013. The challenge for investors looking to benefit is finding suitable properties for professionals at a cost that produces a good yield,’ he added. Continue reading
Rising demand and falling supply boosts recovery of Portuguese property market
Solid demand and falling supply is helping the recovery of the residential property market in Portugal as price rises are seen across all regions. However, new sales instructions have fallen at a time when demand is growing and there has been a modest upturn in rental values, according to the August 2015 RICS/Ci Portuguese Housing Market Survey. The report shows the imbalance between rising buyer enquiries and falling new sales listings continues to underpin a steady increase in house prices. Likewise, in the lettings market, solid tenant demand growth has pushed rents up marginally although a relatively flat trend is still projected in the near term. In the sales market, new buyer demand rose again month on month, with the pace of increase edging up gently relative to the previous month. At the same time, new instructions to sell dropped back modestly for the first time since December 2014. Despite the solid demand backdrop, sales volumes only recorded the most marginal of increases. Nevertheless, going forward, transactions are expected to pick up at a smart pace in the near term. The report explains that with demand outstripping supply, house prices continued to recover across all regions. What’s more, the latest data suggest the rate of house price inflation accelerated across each market during August. Overall, respondents to the survey remain confident that prices will rise further over the next quarter and the next 12 months. Indeed, over the year ahead, contributors forecast national prices will increase by around 3% and on average by roughly 5% per annum over the next five years. Meanwhile, the national confidence indicator, a composite indicator of three month sales and price expectations, rose to +32 from +28 previously, extending its run in positive territory into a twenty second consecutive month. In the lettings market, tenant demand increased sharply alongside a steep fall in new landlord instructions. Consequently, rents inched up again following last month’s marginal increase. Notwithstanding this, rents are expected to hold broadly stable in the near term, although expectations for future lettings market activity strengthened notably. ‘In August, the Algarve benefited from strong demand and price dynamics, showing greater improvement in the results compared to Lisbon and Oporto regions in some Algarve cities, there is already a lack of new houses to sell at a time when demand is expected to remain high,’ said Ricardo Guimarães, director of Ci. According to Simon Rubinsohn, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors chief economist, employment growth has been encouraging over the past year, driving an increasingly widespread revival in housing market activity. ‘Nonetheless, the labour market recovery still has a way to go and sustained progress is needed to underpin the residential property sector going forward,’ he added. Continue reading
