Investment
Rents in England and Wales reach new record level
Rents across England and Wales reached the highest level on record between August and September in a trend increasingly divergent from the wider rate of consumer price inflation, new data shows. Average rents now stand at a new record of £816 per month, after rising by 1.6% month on month and 6.3% year on year, according to the latest buy to let index from Your Move and Reeds Rains. Trends in the private rented sector are increasingly divergent from the official measure of wider inflation. According to the Office for National Statistics consumer prices are by contrast now 0.1% lower than in September 2014. On a cumulative basis the difference with inflation is starker, the index report shows. Rents are now 24.4% higher than in January 2010, while the index of CPI inflation is just 14.1% higher over the same period. This means rents have risen by 10.3% in real terms since the start of the decade. ‘Rents are rising strongly in real terms due to the recent acceleration in wages, and the much deeper and longer term shortage of available properties across the UK of all tenures,’ said Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Reeds Rains and Your Move. ‘Meanwhile, as the price of everyday essentials plateaus and even falls, rents are no longer following the same broad trends. The cost of a place to live has now uncoupled from the cost of living. As long as this supply and demand imbalance keeps up, it is hard to see any reversal in the speed of rent rises,’ he explained. ‘In many ways housing is more essential than other expenses, so this also raises important questions about the nature of inflation. In this case, reform of the UK housing market and planning system is the only serious way to maintain steadier rental inflation,’ he added. The data also shows that five out of 10 regions of England and Wales have also seen individual rent records in September. Rents in London are rising most rapidly, up 11.6% on an annual basis to a new record of £1,301 per month. The annual change in London has also overtaken the East of England, where rents are now rising marginally more slowly, yet are still up 8.8% over the last 12 months. Record rents in the East Midlands are now 6.7% higher than a year ago, at £603 per month, while the West Midlands has seen its own record of £592 per month, or 5.2% higher than in September 2014. Meanwhile, South Western rents have risen at a comparable annual rate of 5.5% to stand at a fresh local record of £691 per month. The final region to see a local record, rents in the South East now average £831 per month, but have risen more slowly, by 3.6% since September 2014. ‘We are in the middle of… Continue reading
Steady price growth forecast for London’s prime property market
Homes in London’s prime property market are set for steady price growth in the mid term as the market adjusts to new constraints such as tax and inflation, new research shows. Stamp duty reform at the end of last year, very low inflation and the mortgage market review which came into being in 2014 will continue to moderate London’s prime housing markets over the short term, according to the latest five year forecast from real estate advisor Savills. But the fundamentals of wealth generation and demand point to a steady medium term price growth and the key trend will be different patterns of growth across the different tiers of the prime London market. The prime market covers a broad swathe stretching from Ealing in the west to Canary Wharf in the east and from Highgate in the north to Wimbledon in the south, dictated as much by price band as by location. As such, the higher value markets of prime central London, where the average house price in the Savills index is around £5 million, are expected to remain flat next year, but record five year growth of 21.5% given the medium term forecasts for international and domestic economic growth and wealth generation. Prime central London values are currently showing annual price falls of 4.6% but are expected to have largely absorbed the impact of higher stamp duty charges by the end of 2015, to close 2015 some 2% down year on year. Other prime London markets are less impacted by higher stamp duty charges and are expected to see moderate price growth through next year, rising 2%, the report says. However, tighter lending criteria will continue to be a constraining factor for these more domestic markets, capping five year growth at lower 18.2%. ‘The stamp duty reform of December 2014 was a defining moment for the top end of the prime London market, particularly as it was looking fairly fully priced having grown significantly to outperform the rest of the market over a 10 year period,’ said Lucian Cook, Savills head of residential research. ‘It is fair to say that last year’s Autumn Statement took the market by surprise and has essentially prevented any bounce back in values post-election, leaving little scope for significant value uplift next year, particularly in a low inflation environment,’ he explained. ‘As such, we have pushed out our five year forecast by a year to 18 months, building in a period of little or no growth as the market continues to adjust to a new fiscal and regulatory environment,’ he pointed out. ‘Thereafter, we expect the depth of the market and the maturity of London as a global city, coupled with job creation and economic growth forecasts to return to long term trend rates of real price growth, particularly, but by no means exclusively, in core prime central London… Continue reading
Majority of Americans believe in home ownership and are positive about the market
The majority of people in the United States believe that buying a home is a good financial decision, that now is a good time to buy and that they could sell their home for at least its initial purchase price. The survey from the National Association of Realtors which measures consumers' attitudes and concerns about housing issues in the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas, found that more than eight in 10 Americans are positive about the housing market. Some 68% believe that now is a good time to buy a home, 71% that they could sell their house for what they paid for it, a jump of 16% compared to 2013, the data shows. When asked for reasons about why home ownership matters to them, respondents’ answers have not changed significantly from past years. Building equity, wanting a stable and safe environment, and having the freedom to choose their neighbourhood remain the top three reasons to own a home. ‘Home ownership is part of the American Dream, and this survey proves that dream is alive and thriving in our communities,’ said NAR president Chris Polychron. The research also found that the number of renters who are now thinking about purchasing a home has increased since the last survey in 2013, up from 36% to 39and 61% said that owning a home is a priority for their future. According to the survey 80% of respondents believe that pre-purchase counselling programmes and classes are very or somewhat important. Indeed, 45% of home owners who said they did not take a counselling programme reported they would have taken part in one had it been easily available to them. Attitudes about the housing market have improved in recent years and 49% of respondents indicated that they feel activity in the housing market has increased in the past year, compared to 44% in 2013 and 12% in 2011. The study shows that 89% expect home sales in their area to either increase or remain the same. Concern about foreclosures has also declined, with only 15% of respondents indicating that foreclosure is a major concern. In addition to improved attitudes about the housing market, survey participants also showed an improved outlook regarding the economy. Only 36% think that job layoffs and unemployment are a big problem, a substantial drop from 45% in 2013. Perceived obstacles to home ownership have remained mostly unchanged compared to recent years and 78% of respondents pointed to college debt and student loans as the main obstacle to making a home purchase affordable. On top of this 76% said they have a full time job but still did not make enough money to purchase a home while 74% believe they do not have enough money for a down payment and closing costs. As the market has improved, concern about the cost of housing has increased. Two thirds of survey participants said that home prices are more expensive than they were a year ago. There is… Continue reading
