Investment
UK rents not showing signs of seasonal slowdown, says latest monthly index
UK rents increased by 0.7% month on month in October to £1,294, showing no signs of the seasonal slowdown that normally hits the UK rental market in the autumn, according to the latest index. Rents increased across most of the county with the only exception being Scotland which saw a marginal monthly fall of 0.1% to £696, the data from the Landbay Rental Index shows. The report suggest that the latest rises indicate that the UK’s housing shortage combined with growing pay for many and unemployment levels hitting their lowest level since 2008 have put an end, at least for the time being, to the usual seasonal fall in rents that starts in the autumn. In fact the last time there was a sustained period of falling rents was in the winter of 2012/2013, when rents saw monthly falls from August 2012 to April 2013. Rents increased every month in 2014 and have been strong this year, seeing only small month on month decreases between June and August before increasing again in September and October. Typically an autumn seasonal slowdown in the rental market is caused by lower tenant demand after heightened demand in the summer from students, first jobbers moving for work, and the expiry of annual contracts that originated in previous summer rental rushes. The fact that it did not happen last year and shows no signs of arriving this year demonstrates that the UK private rental sector is seeing a period of consistently high demand and insufficient supply of properties. October’s rent increases were fastest for three bed properties, which are often rented by families moving for work, up 4.7% year on year and one beds that are most popular with first jobbers and young professionals, up 4.4%. Increases in the UK are being driven by London and the southeast. In October London rents increased by 4.1% to an average of £2,063, whilst rents in the southeast rose by 3.4% to £1,033. The impact of London on the national private rental sector is becoming increasingly evident by the surge in rents among commuter hotspots. Southend on Sea, historically not well known for its commuter town status, has seen consistently faster growth in rents than the national average. The seaside town’s one hour direct train into London and recent gentrification have played their parts in an annual rental increase of 9.7%, to an average of £759 per calendar month. Out of the top 20 areas of the UK outside of London to see the fastest rent increases, just Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Bath were outside of the southeast. ‘Seasonality has always been a strong feature of the UK’s rental market so the fact that it appears to be declining in influence is a powerful sign of the increasing strain the private rental sector is under to house the UK population,’ said John Goodall, chief… Continue reading
Asking prices down 1.3% in England and Wales, but seasonal dip lower than usual
Asking prices in England and Wales fell 1.3% month on month but are still up 6.2% year on year, taking the average to £292,572, according to the latest index data. It is the smallest drop in new seller asking prices during the seasonal November slowdown since 2011, according to the Rightmove report and the online portal says that it is indicative of even higher prices next year. Prices fell in all regions with Wales seeing the biggest monthly fall of 3.7%, taking the average asking price to £196,471 and both the South West and the North East saw a fall of 2.3% taking the averages to £279,643 and £142,917 respectively. Yorkshire and Humber saw a monthly fall of 2.2% to an average of £167,343, in the North West there was a fall of 1.9% to £171,709, while the South East and the West Midlands recorded a decline of 1.1% to £384,001 and £196,471 respectively. There was a 1.6% fall in asking prices in Greater London taking the average to £619,866, a fall of 0.6% in the East Midlands to £187,148 and a decline of 0.3% in the East of England to £315,568. The report points out that sellers who come to market in the run-up to Christmas typically set lower asking prices as buyers are harder to attract at this time of year. However, this November’s price dip of 1.3% or £3,977 is much less marked than usual, and is the smallest seen at this time of year since 2011. According to Rightmove director and housing market analyst Miles Shipside this indicates a positive underlying outlook for the year ahead among home owners, with research by Rightmove showing them to be in a confident mood and largely unfazed by the risk of higher interest rates in 2016. Given these findings, and the likelihood that demand will continue to outstrip supply, prices look set to increase again in many locations in 2016. Shipside expects it to be a short lived dip in asking prices. High home owner confidence is demonstrated by Rightmove research, with a sample size of over 23,000, which reveals that the majority, 85%, don’t think their financial situation will worsen in the next year. Despite the possibility of a 2016 rate rise that could increase mortgage repayments for many, 41% of home owners said they thought their household’s financial situation would get better over the next 12 months. Another 44% said things would stay the same, with only 15% forecasting they would get worse. Some 69% were also of the opinion that property would continue to rise in price over the next 12 months, with only 7% expecting prices to be lower. ‘Home owners have had a smooth ride over the past six or so years with a 0.5% base rate, so you would think that more might have concerns about the extra drain on their financial resources when the base rate inevitably goes up. Whether in 2016 or early… Continue reading
Number of first time buyers in the US falls for third year in a row
The share of first time buyers in the United States fell for the third year in a row and remained at its lowest point in nearly three decades, according to a new survey. The overall strengthening pace of home sales over the past year was driven more by repeat buyers with dual incomes, according to the annual survey released by the National Association of Realtors. The survey also found that nearly 90% of all respondents worked with a real estate agent to buy or sell a home which pushed for sale by owner transactions to their lowest share ever. The number of first time buyers was down to 32% from 33% a year ago, which is the second lowest share since the survey began in 1981 and the lowest since 1987 when it was 30%. Historically, the long term average shows that nearly 40% of primary purchases are from first time buyers. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, the housing recovery's missing link continues to be the absence of first time buyers. ‘There are several reasons why there should be more first–time buyers reaching the market, including persistently low mortgage rates, healthy job prospects for those college educated, and the fact that renting is becoming more unaffordable in many areas,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately, there are just as many high hurdles slowing first time buyers down. Increasing rents and home prices are impeding their ability to save for a down payment, there's scarce inventory for new and existing homes in their price range, and it's still too difficult for some to get a mortgage,’ he explained. Yun pointed out that this year's survey perhaps offers additional clues to why fewer first time buyers are reaching the market. ‘First time buyers reported that debt in all forms delayed saving for a down payment for a median of three years, and among the 25% who said saving was the most difficult task, 58% said student loans delayed saving,’ he said. ‘With a median amount of student loan debt for all buyers at $25,000, it's likely some younger households with even higher levels of debt can't save for an adequate down payment or have decided to delay buying until their debt is at more comfortable levels,’ he added. With strong price growth in many markets and fewer first time buyers, the results in this year's survey reveal a market with a higher share of married couples at 67% percent, up from 65% last year, who have higher household income than previous years. Married repeat buyers have the highest income among all buyers at $108,600, while the share of single female buyers decreased from 16% to 15% and male buyers remained flat at 9%. ‘Similar to some of the obstacles facing first time buyers, tighter credit conditions and having less purchasing power than households with dual incomes likely led to the share of single female buyers declining to its… Continue reading
