Investment
UK house price growth set to slow in 2016, latest outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are expected to see growth slow to 4% to 6% due to the increasing difficulty in getting on the housing ladder, together with the prospect of an interest rate rise, according to a new report. The forecast from lender the Halifax comes after a year when activity levels have remained modest by historical standards. A shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity in 2016, it says in its outlook report. Price growth is expected to slow more sharply in London than elsewhere but all regions are expected to experience price rises in 2016 which will be broadly in line with income growth. The report points out that levels of house building remain low, but improvements are expected over the medium term and this would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices. ‘There is little reason to expect any fundamental shift in the key market drivers in the immediate future. As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building, and exceptionally low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Nonetheless, with house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder. This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016,’ he pointed out. ‘A continuing shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity over the coming year. Sales in 2016 are expected to be modestly higher than this year, but to remain well below the peak of 1.6 million in 2006,’ he added. The report points out that house price growth has been robust throughout 2015. The quarterly rate of increase was 2.8% in October, according to the latest figures, a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate stood at 9.7% in October, the highest annual rate since August 2014 when it was 9.7%, with the annual rate in a narrow band between 8% and 10% all year. ‘Improving economic conditions with continuing growth and rising employment and strengthening household finances, assisted by increasing real earnings for the first time for several years, have boosted housing demand during 2015. This has been supported further by very low mortgage rates which have fallen over the year,’ Ellis explained. ‘Strengthening demand has combined with very low supply, both in terms of new build and second hand properties for sale, to drive strong underlying house price growth. New instructions by home sellers declined in October for the ninth… Continue reading
Call for more to be done for older home owners in the UK
The Council of Mortgage Lenders, to which most mortgage lenders in the UK belong, has outlined a range of calls to action for regulators, government and the industry itself to improve the market for older people who legitimately wish to borrow in retirement. In a new report, the CML demonstrates that the issues around lending to older borrowers are complex and interconnected. The overarching message is that improving this market in a meaningful way requires significant collaboration both inside and outside the mortgage industry. However, it is clear that the will to improve this market exists and the CML says that one of the most significant achievements of the work to date goes beyond the production of this report itself, and lies in the fact that so many different participants have come together with a common will to address the issues. Those involved range from mainstream lenders and lifetime mortgage providers, from across the spectrum of CML membership, to pension providers, financial advisers, compliance experts, groups representing older customers, retirement housing providers, think tanks, other trade bodies, and regulators. The report follows the publication last month of externally commissioned research on the demand for retirement borrowing and identifies a range of next steps and calls to action. These include continuing to work with the intermediary sector towards a more seamless advice framework. In particular, there needs to be work to identify how to improve ‘hand-off’ arrangements between different advisers when this would best serve the customer's individual needs. There ought to be monitoring of emerging evidence about how pension freedoms are interacting with the mortgage market, including whether access to pension pots is feeding through to some customers repaying their interest only mortgages, for example. This knowledge can be used to inform future action, the report says. It will also involve exploring the potential for a market in the 50 to 75 age group for a product that can flex between capital repayment and interest only rollup over time, and also the potential for further product innovation for the 65 to 74 age group. The CML is calling on the Financial Conduct Authority to consider addressing how regulation could encourage a more holistic approach to mortgage, lifetime and investment advice in the round, which is what many older borrowers really need. Also to look at how different reasons for borrowing should be reflected in sales channels, for example health may sometimes be even more important than age in determining the quality and suitability of products and the sales advice that accompanies them. The report says there needs to be a standard definition of retirement and some of the Mortgage Conduct of Business rules would need to be changed to allow, for example, for a lifetime mortgage to be an acceptable repayment strategy for interest only mortgages. On top of this the CML is asking the Treasury to consider introducing tax relief on professional advice received at retirement, to encourage take-up, and ensuring that the… Continue reading
Pending homes sales in the US up marginally after two months of declines
Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in the United States in October, but shifted marginally higher after two straight months of declines, according to the latest index data. The figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), show that gains in the Northeast and West were offset by declines in the Midwest and South. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2% to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9% above October 2014. The index has increased year on year for 14 months in a row. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, explained that pending sales have plateaued as buyers struggle to overcome a scant number of available homes for sale and prices that are rising too fast in some markets. ‘Contract signings in October made the most strides in the Northeast, which hasn't seen much of the drastic price appreciation and supply constraints that are occurring in other parts of the country. In the most competitive metro areas, particularly those in the South and West, affordability concerns remain heightened as low inventory continues to drive up prices,’ he said. According to Yun, although contract activity has slightly trended downward since the spring, the ongoing strengthening of several local job markets continues to fuel the improved demand for buying that has now pushed existing sales above a five million sales pace for eight consecutive months. ‘Areas that are heavily reliant on oil related jobs are the exception and have already started to see some softness in sales because of declining energy prices,’ Yun added. With demand expected to remain stable through the final two months of the year, Yun forecasts existing home sales are set to finish 2015 at a pace of 5.30 million, the highest since 2006. He pointed out that although further expansion in existing sales is expected next year, ongoing inventory shortages and affordability pressures from rising prices and mortgage rates will likely temper sales growth to around 3% in 2016. Home prices are expected to slightly moderate from a 6% increase in 2015 to 5% next year. ‘Unless sizeable supply gains occur for new and existing homes, prices and rents will continue to exceed wages into next year and hamstring a large pool of potential buyers trying to buy a home,’ said Yun. A breakdown of the figures show that the index in the Northeast rose 4.5% in October, and is now 6.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell by 1% but remains 3.3% above October 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.7% in October and are now 0.3% below last October. The index in the West climbed 1.7% in October and is 10.4% above a year ago. Continue reading
