Investment
Average UK property price up to £200,000, latest index shows
Property prices in the UK increased by 0.8% month on month in December to an average of £196,999 and up 4.5% year on year, according to the latest monthly index to be published. The data from home lender, the Nationwide, shows that after moderating during the first six months of 2015, house price growth has remained in a narrow range between 3% and 4.5% in the second half of the year. All regions except Scotland saw increases in house prices in 2015, though all recorded slower rates of annual price growth than in 2014. London was the strongest performing region for the fifth year running, with average prices up 12% year on year. The Nationwide’s quarterly index, however, shows that average prices in London are now 50% above their pre-crisis peak in 2007, while in the UK overall prices are around 7% higher. The neighbouring Outer Metropolitan region took second place, with prices up almost 11% compared with the fourth quarter of 2014. Yorkshire and Humberside was the weakest performing English region, with prices up 0.4% year on year. House prices continue to recover in Northern Ireland, with annual growth of 6.5% in the fourth quarter, although average prices are still 44% below their pre-crisis peak. Wales saw a 0.7% year on year increase in average prices, similar to the 1.4% increase recorded in 2014. Scotland was the only region to see prices fall over the year, with prices down 1.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2014. The full data also suggests that in England the North/South divide has widened further. Average house prices in England increased by 2.2% in the fourth quarter and were up 6.9% year on year. Price growth in the South exceeded that in the North for the 27th consecutive quarter. Prices in Southern England, that is the South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia, were up 8.9% year on year, whilst in the West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humberside, North West and North prices rose by just 1.6%. In cash terms, the gap in average prices between the South and the North of England widened further and now stands at nearly £159,000, around £23,000 higher than a year ago. Looking ahead to 2016, the risks are skewed towards a modest acceleration in house price growth, at least at the national level, despite the likelihood of interest rate increases from the middle of next year, according to Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist. ‘Further healthy gains in employment and rising wages are likely to bolster buyer sentiment, while borrowing costs are expected to rise only gradually. However, the main concern is that construction activity will lag behind strengthening demand, putting upward pressure on house prices and eventually reducing affordability,’ he said. ‘Overall, we expect UK house prices to rise by 3% to 6% over the next 12 months. It remains an open question whether the striking divergence in regional house price performance evident in… Continue reading
UK government launches consultation on buy to let regulation powers
The UK government has launched its promised consultation on the powers that the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee should have over the buy to let mortgage market. This consultation aims to gather views on how the operation of the nation’s buy to let mortgage market may carry risks to financial stability. It also seeks respondents’ opinions on the specific tools in relation to which the FPC has recommended it be granted powers of direction, including in their impact on business activity and prosperity, on the draft legislation, and on the consultation stage impact assessment. The consultation is primarily targeted at individuals, institutions and associated bodies that would be affected by the FPC’s powers of direction but the government said that it also welcomes the views of other parties interested in housing market policies. Following the consultation, the government will examine the consultation responses and use them to help to define the instrument that will place the powers in legislation. The government will set out how it intends to proceed in a consultation response document in 2016. It comes at a time when the private rented sector (PRS) has grown rapidly in recent years, from 2.5 million properties in 2002 to 5.2 million in 2013, from 10% of the market to 19% respectively. The government believes that the Bank of England should have more tools at its disposal to cool the buy to let market if necessary such as directing regulators to require lenders to place limits on buy to let lending. The amount buy to let investors could borrow as a proportion of the property price, or the loan to value ratio, could be capped or the Bank could also increase the required ratio of expected rental income to mortgage interest payments. Lenders are not fully supportive of more controls currently for the buy to let market and are warning that the market does not necessarily need more regulations and that new rules for by to let landlords, including an extra 3% stamp duty from April 2016, should be allowed to take effect. ‘We understand the rationale for putting the macro prudential tools at the Bank of England’s disposal, but also recognise that this does not necessarily mean they will be used. In our view, buy to let does not constitute a market that currently requires further macro prudential intervention, especially as the effect of several recent tax changes is yet to be fully felt and evaluated,’ said Council of Mortgage Lenders director general Paul Smee. ‘We urge policymakers to be mindful of the risk of unintended consequences that could adversely affect the private rented sector, alongside their focus on ensuring that the buy to let market does not pose a threat to financial stability,’ he added. Peter Williams, executive director of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association, suggested that the industry is confused by what the government is trying to do. ‘In the autumn the Chancellor, in giving evidence to the Treasury… Continue reading
Property sales have fallen by up to 46% in parts of Dubai in last two years
Some parts of Dubai have seen residential property sales fall by more than 40% in the last two year but looking ahead the market is set to pick up in 2016. Reports from the Unitas Consultancy and Reidin show that house sales in Dubai Marina, for example, fell to less than 1,500 in the first three quarters of 2015 compared to 2,250 during the same period in 2014, and down from 2,700 in 2013, a fall of 46%. In Downtown Dubai the number of sales fell to 500 compared with 800 in 2014 and 750 in 2013, a 30% drop over two years and in the Greens the drop was around 42%, according to data from Reidin. In Jumeirah Lakes Towers (JLT) sales were flat in 2015 at 1,200 but down 31% from 1,600 in 2013, but the company said that the pace of decline in the same areas appeared to be slowing in the third quarter of 2015 and in some areas there has been a slight uptick. For example, in JLT, there were around 400 transactions in the third quarter of 2015 compared with 390 in the same period last year but down from 600 in 2013 while in Downtown there were around 190 sales in the third quarter of this year, higher than 180 recorded in 2014 but still down on 210 in 2013. However, in Dubai Marina there were around 400 transactions in the third quarter of this year, down from 450 the previous year and around 900 in 2013. The report points out that sales are down by a maximum of 46% and a minimum of 30%, however, a comparison between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015 show an uptick in activity by an average of 8% has been recorded. ‘This uptick is likely due to the fall in prices that have been witnessed in this segment and we believe that this trend in the market will continue as prices will soften further. The rise in transaction volumes also indicates market expectations that participants feel that the fall in the market prices may be nearing an end,’ it adds. The research also shows that sales in mid-priced properties in areas such as International City and Discovery Gardens have been more resilient since 2013, falling only 11% on average, compared to an overall average of 21% in high-end areas. The report also found mortgages accounted for a larger portion of sales in 2015 compared to previous years. ‘Mortgages are considered to be an indication of home ownership, which highlights the shift of the market from an investor based to an owner occupied one,’ the report pointed out. ‘However, there are instances where mortgage transactions outweigh sales, especially in the periods of a downturn implying a higher number of refinancing and other types of transaction taking place,’ it added. Continue reading
