Investment
Residential property sales in Scotland reach eight year high
The Scottish residential property market has recorded is highest January home sales in eight years and average prices also rose, according to the latest index figures. Sales in the first month of 2016 increased by 24% year on year with the biggest surge in Midlothian with a rise of 38% with flats and terraced houses driving the growth, the Your Move data shows. Average Scottish house prices increased by 0.8% in January to £171, 079, up from 0.3% the previous month. The strongest growth was in Stirling where property values have jumped 13.5% over the past year. Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, pointed out that transactions in Scotland easily outpaced sales south of the border, as England and Wales only saw a 1% rise over the same time period. She explained that the surge in Scottish home purchases has been propelled by second home and buy to let buyers eager to avoid paying the 3% Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) surcharge which is being introduced from 01 April. She pointed out that as this tax hike was only announced in December’s Scottish Budget, January’s surge in sales may only be the tip of the iceberg. She also explained that the growth in Midlothian has been aided by the lower rate of LBTT on the purchase of cheaper properties, with flat and terraced house sales accounting for the largest rise. This trend can also be seen in Glasgow, which narrowly beat Edinburgh to become the area with the highest absolute increase in sales. The only areas in Scotland which have seen a decline in sales from November to January, compared to the previous three months are Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire. In Aberdeen City sales have fallen by 11% in this time period, as a result of the oil crisis and the large proportion of expensive detached homes in city which are hit hardest by the LBBT. ‘January marks the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year growth in house prices, as the market finds a sturdy footing, putting the shaky start to 2015 behind it. The boost in property values has been driven by improving economic conditions, with employment in Scotland at an all-time high,’ said Campbell. ‘However, this stability may be under threat if the effects of the impending LBTT surcharge mirror those seen with the introduction of the original tax. There could soon be a swift peak in prices as investors rush to buy before the surcharge comes into force, followed by a dip in home values after the implementation of the surcharge,’ she warned. She reckons that the 13.5% or £24,508 year on year price growth in Stirling has been fuelled by Stirling Council’s programme to build 210 new properties in the area, with an additional investment of £9 million planned for 2016. ‘A further boost was provided by the recent sales of two million pound homes in the countryside close to the city, possibly as… Continue reading
Buy to let lending grew in 2015 at expense of first time buyers
The rapid growth of the buy to let market in the UK during 2015 was at the expense of first time buyers despite Government initiatives to encourage home ownership, new research has found. The proportion of buy to let mortgage enquiries grew by 4.4% to 18.2% during 2015 compared with 2014, whereas the proportion of enquiries for first time buyers fell by 3.7% to 23.5%. According to price comparison website comparethemarket.com the inverse correlation indicates that the buy to let market has gained a chokehold over first time buyers, as many struggle to get out of rented accommodation and on to the housing ladder. January showed no signs of a reducing market, as the first month in 2016 showed year on year growth of over 16% and 62% increase compared to December, reinforcing the sentiment that the current buy to let market may be unsustainable. Evidence indicates that if the market continues in its current direction, the number of enquiries for buy to let mortgages will outstrip the number for first time buyer enquiries, which would be a blow to the Government’s home ownership drive. Overall the buy to let market saw growth during of over 23% in enquiries on the website in 2015 and the initial cut on tax relief also did little to reduce the swelling of the buy to let market as enquiries rose by 14% in the three months after the announcement made by the Chancellor at the Summer Budget, compared to the three months before. However, with the new stamp duty on buy-to-let properties, announced at the Autumn Statement, coming into effect this spring, many expect the market will finally dampen. Elsewhere, January proved to be a particularly buoyant month for the mortgage market as the number of enquiries rose by more than 8% compared to 2015. It seems that January is the time that consumers get their respective houses in order with a recent study by comparethemarket.com finding that 44% of consumers used the month to ‘sort out’ their finances. ‘The buy to let market has been subject to both extensive discussion and criticism over the past year with even the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee labelling it a risk to the UK’s financial stability,’ said Jody Baker, head of money for comparethemarket. ‘This data only reinforces the view that over the past year, families and others looking to get a foot on the housing ladder are being priced out by landlords. It was great to see the Government take action in the Autumn Statement but time will tell as to what the material impact will be on the market after 01 April,’ Baker added. Continue reading
Home sales in Canada up 0.8% in first weeks of 2016
National home sales in Canada rose by 0.8% from January to February while average prices were up by 16.4% year on year, the latest index shows. But prices fell in some regions, most notably British Columbia and Ontario with a fall of 1.4%, according to the data from the Canadian Real Estate Association also shows. The number of newly listed homes edged up by 0.5% from January to February and the CREA report says that the Canadian housing market has tightened but remains balanced overall. The monthly increase lifted national sales activity to the highest level since June 2007 but a greater number of local housing markets posted a monthly decline in sales activity than posted a monthly increase. However, the latter accounted for a larger share of national transactions. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Okanagan Region and Fraser Valley made the largest contribution to the monthly increase in national sales activity, offsetting monthly sales declines in Edmonton, Greater Moncton and Montreal. ‘Two of Canada’s hottest housing markets look set to stay that way heading into the spring home buying season. Meanwhile, other major urban markets elsewhere in Canada are well balanced or have ample supply,’ said CREA president Pauline Aunger. Actual, not seasonally adjusted, sales activity rose 18.7% year on year in February, some 12.7% above the 10 year average for the month. Activity increased above year ago levels in about three quarters of all local markets. BC’s Lower Mainland, the GTA and Montreal contributed most to the year on year increase in national activity. Gregory Klump, CREA chief economist pointed out that the number of single family home sales above one million dollars is rising in Greater Vancouver and the GTA. ‘Tightened mortgage regulations apply to homes selling above $500,000 and below a million dollars. The tighter regulations combined with a short supply of single family homes will restrain transactions below one million dollars,’ he explained. ‘If recent trends continue, home sales above one million dollars will account for a greater share of activity and will further fuel year on year average price increases in these markets. Meanwhile, price growth will remain more modest in other housing markets that don’t have an ongoing or developing supply shortage like the kind we’re seeing in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia or around the GTA,’ Klump added. The number of newly listed homes edged up 0.5% in February 2016 compared to January. The rise in new listings in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, York and Mississauga Regions of the GTA and Hamilton-Burlington helped to push the national figure higher. Monthly increases in new listings in these housing markets were offset by monthly declines in Central Toronto, Calgary and Montreal. The national sales to new listings ratio rose to 59.5% in February 2016 versus 59.3% the previous month. This marks the ratio’s highest reading since November 2009. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market… Continue reading
