Investment
UK housing market grew at an accelerated rate, latest housing market bulletin shows
Average house prices are continuing to grow in the UK and at an accelerating rate with the South East, the East of England and London seeing the strongest growth, according to the latest Housing Market Bulletin. The report, published by the Homes and Communities Agency using data from house prices indices, lenders and construction companies, shows that residential sales surged forward strongly in March. It also shows that gross mortgage lending continues to see robust growth with levels over one third higher than a year ago and private sector house building investment continues to increase, but public sector investment has stalled. The value of Greenfield residential development land is slipping, but urban land is increasing. A breakdown of the figures shows that there were 141,310 residential property transactions in England in March 2016, which is 80.6% higher than one year earlier. It says that this sharp uptick could have been the result of by buy to let buyers having brought forward purchases in order to avoid increased Stamp Duty tax liabilities from April. There were a total of 1,135,830 transactions in England in the year to the end of March 2016. This is 9.9% higher than in the previous 12 months. Aside from this the spike in the data in March, the seasonally adjusted monthly total has been moving strongly upwards for the past year. The total stock of property for sale remains historically low. In England and Wales overall, the number of properties entering the market was down 6% in March compared to a year before and the supply shortage is most keenly felt in the West Midlands and the South West regions where, respectively, 12% and 11% less stock was registered for sale with estate agents compared to March 2015. Greater London was the only English region with increased numbers of homes coming to the market, up 6% on the same month in 2015. Gross mortgage lending reached an estimated £25.7 billion in March. This is 59% higher than March 2015 and gross mortgage lending for the first quarter of this year was an estimated £62.1bn, which is 39% higher than the first three months of 2015. There were a total of over 23.5 million dwellings in England in 2015, which is 704,000 or 3.1% more than in 2010. The number of private sector homes had increased by 649,000 or 3.5%, and there were over 209,000 or 9.3% more private registered provider homes. But the number of Local Authority owned homes fell by nearly 143,000 or 8% over the same period. The Output in the Construction Industry indices show the total value of new housing development in Great Britain is unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter in 2014. The trend in the private sector has been of sustained steady increase over at least three years. The public new housing sector enjoyed expansion during 2013 and most of 2014 but then had four quarters of shrinking… Continue reading
Capital city home values up 3.3% in first four months of 2016
Home values in Australian capital cities continued to rise in the first four months of 2016, up 3.3% compared to the same period in 2015, the latest index shows. In April, the pace of capital gains rebounded from the relatively flat numbers recorded in March, with dwelling values increasing by an average of 1.7%, according to the Corelogic April home value index. Across the country, housing market trends remain mixed, however, and CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless noted that the improvement in the rate of capital gains has been ‘broad based’ during 2016 with every capital city except Perth recording a lift in dwelling values over the calendar year to date. ‘The results show value growth moved at a faster pace compared with the final three months of 2015 when capital city dwelling values slid 1.4% lower off the back of weaker market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne,’ he explained. ‘While we’ve seen capital gains moderate substantially after peaking last year in Sydney and Melbourne, dwelling values continue to trend higher, just not as fast,’ he added. The data shows that the annual rate of growth in Sydney peaked at 18.4% in July last year and has since moderated back to slightly less than half the peak rate of growth, at 8.9% over the most recent 12 month period. Melbourne’s housing market continues to show a level of resilience to a slowing trend, however the annual growth rate has fallen from a recent peak of 14.2% to the current annual growth rate of 10.1% but Melbourne was the only capital city to see double digit growth over the past year. Perth and Darwin remain as the only two capital city markets to experience a decline in home values over the past 12 months, with Perth values down 2.1% and Darwin values 3.7% lower. ‘With recent month on month increases in home values in these two cities, the declining trend rate is now levelling. This may be an early sign that these markets are beginning to find their cyclical trough after more than a year of annual declines,’ said Lawless. Over the current growth cycle, which commenced broadly in June 2012, capital city dwelling values have moved 34.4% higher, led by a 52.7% rise in Sydney home values and a 37.1% lift in Melbourne values. Lawless pointed out that this highlights the two tiered nature of Australia’s housing market at present. Brisbane experienced the third highest rate of dwelling value growth over the growth cycle to date and dwelling values in the city are now up 18% and Lawless explained that Australia’s regional markets also exhibited a lift in house values over the year to date. He added that while house values across the non-capital city markets have generally underperformed compared with the capital city regions, regional house values moved 2.4% higher over the first quarter of the year. Continue reading
Edinburgh property market seeing strong demand and steady price growth
The residential property market in Edinburgh is experiencing high demand, especially at the middle to high end of the market, new reports show. The long term picture is one of steady growth. A comparison of property prices by agents Strutt & Parker shows that in March 2015, the month leading up to the introduction of the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), and March 2016 reveals a 26% fall in average value. In March 2015 prices averaged £320,466 but in March 2016 this was down to £237,226, much of which has been put down to the distortion caused in the market by LBTT last year. However, the average value in March 2016 is significantly up on the average price in March 2014 which was £209, 624 and March 2013 when it was £200,744, indicating a steady upward trajectory in property prices. ‘The drop in average value simply serves to underline the huge spike in sales before the introduction of LBTT in April last year and it highlights the importance of experience when interpreting housing market trends,’ said Blair Stewart, head of Edinburgh City Residential Sales at Strutt & Parker. ‘It is not surprising that the 2016 average property price is less in comparison. It is more important to look back over the last three years during which time, taking 2015 out of the equation, we can see a steady rise in the city's average property price,’ he pointed out. In March, there were 247 sales in Edinburgh of which 225 were £300,000 to £750,000, 13 in the £750,000 to £1 million range and nine at over £1 million, up from 159 in February and 146 in January but down from 363 in March 2015, again underlining the surge in sales before the introduction of LBTT. ‘The high volumes and associated lower values in Edinburgh are partly reflective of a surge in the purchases of investment properties before the LBTT surcharge was introduced at the start of April. In general, additional and investment properties are lower in value, which is illustrated by both the jump in transactions and drop in average value,’ Stewart explained. ‘Correspondingly, we have noticed an adjustment in the average sale prices of the properties we are selling in Edinburgh change from around £780,000 in 2015 to approximately £600,000 in 2016. However, these figures also show a strong performance in the market in the first months of 2016 and I am confident we will see that continue into the summer,’ he added. He also pointed out that behavioural changes following two tax regime changes in a year are still playing out so a true picture of the market will become clearer over the next six months once there can be an analysis of figures which have not been distorted by either LBTT or the additional 3% surcharge on additional homes introduced this April. Agents CKD Galbraith is also reporting that demand for middle to high end residential property in Edinburgh city… Continue reading
