Investment
UK farmland values down 3% in first quarter of 2016
As uncertainty around the UK referendum on the country’s future in the European Union grows, values for farmland fell by 3% in the first quarter of 2016, dropping back below £8,000 an acre. The drop was the largest quarterly since the 5% decrease that occurred following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the latest analysis report from real estate firm Knight Frank. It shows that around 25% fewer acres of farmland had been advertised by the end of March, compared with the same period in 2015. However, despite the uncertainty and value drop, a recent survey by Farmers Weekly shows that 60% of farmers will be voting to leave the EU on 23 June. The report also looks at what has happened to farmland prices since the UK joined what was known as the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture/DEFRA shows land values increased sharply around the time, even managing to beat the hyper-inflation of the 1970s. Over the long term that trend has continued with land values outpacing inflation. But the sobering trend for farmers is how agricultural commodity prices have failed to keep up. The report also points out that investors’ priorities have changed dramatically over the past year, as they are now looking much further afield and for value-add opportunities such as diversified income streams or development potential And it also shows that prime country house prices rose by 0.3% on average in the first quarter of 2016, taking annual growth to 2.4%, down from 5.2% in 2014 but there was a notable rise in activity in the first quarter of the year with Knight Frank figures showing a 24% rise in sales volumes across the prime country market, compared with the same period in 2015. Activity was focused on the sub-£1 million market, which showed strongest price growth of 4% across the last 12 months. Homes worth £5 million or more saw values fall by 2.7% in the same period. ‘From weighing up the hugely complex issues surrounding the EU referendum, to coping with a slump in agricultural commodity prices and working out what the implications of the latest changes to the planning system could be for them, estates, farms and other rural businesses are having to take some extremely big decisions,’ said Andrew Shirley, head of rural research at Knight Frank. ‘Long term strategic planning can be extremely helpful when it comes to coping with such challenges and there are also exciting opportunities to be grasped and the level of innovation and entrepreneurship in the countryside has never been greater,’ he added. According to James Del Mar, Knight Frank’s head of rural consultancy, the tax environment for the rural landowner in the UK is becoming more challenging, particularly for those who are domiciled elsewhere. ‘At the same time, the pent up demand for new housing and infrastructure, combined with changes to the planning system, presents what some… Continue reading
New analysis suggests Brexit vote is affecting prime central London lettings market
The lettings market in prime central London has weakened rental as tenants capitalise on the current economic uncertainty including the upcoming referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union. The latest analysis report from specialist residential investor advisors London Central Portfolio (LCP) says that the rental market is reflecting a slowdown as a result of economic strains. It shows that whilst new lets have seen consistently positive rental upticks over the last five consecutive quarters, averaging a 5.5% increase overall, the market is beginning to subdue, according to the published statistics. Against a backdrop of falling stock markets, a collapse in oil prices and Brexit uncertainty, new lets have achieved just a 0.3% increase over the last quarter. This has been exacerbated by the predictably quieter Easter and May bank holiday period. The analysis, however, shows that re-lets are showing a significantly weaker picture, with a 1.2% fall in rents over the last quarter, following a fairly static picture over the course of the year. The report says that this is due to applicants being attracted to brand new properties, without any sign of previous use, coupled with a significant uptick in rental stock available. This has increased by 26.7% from 23,039 to 29,198 in the last three months, attributable to a reduction in transactions in the sales market which has led to more properties being available for rent. ‘The overall suppression in rents reflects a market dynamic which was conspicuous during the credit crunch, as tenants capitalise on economic uncertainty to leverage up their bargaining power. This has been compounded by companies cutting their relocation budgets in the face of global instability and, in some cases, delaying relocations in the run up the EU referendum,’ said Naomi Heaton, chief executive officer of London Central Portfolio. ‘In light of the current market conditions, landlords may need to be more flexible to accommodate the higher negotiating power of applicants and to prevent void periods which may erode any increase in rent ultimately achieved. For as long as this cycle lasts, landlords also may need to be more open to remedial and upgrade works between tenancies,’ she explained. ‘A slowdown in the re-let market has been compensated by continued positive renewal increases by tenants in situ. With Landlords often able to achieve contractual rental increases, above that which can be achieved in the open market, average rental growth of 3.3% in the last quarter has been seen in contrast to the softer market elsewhere,’ she added. The report also points out that despite the somewhat gloomy picture generally, corporate belt tightening means that small one and two bedroom properties are reinforcing their position as the hardest working sector of the market. Appetite for these mainstream rental properties remains strong, with void periods down to just 23 days on average. For these properties, the area around Marylebone, Fitzrovia… Continue reading
Chancellor says house prices could fall by up to 18% if UK votes to leave EU
House values in the UK could fall by 10% and up to 18% due to the economic shock that would hit the country if people vote to leave the European Union in the referendum next month, according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. George Osborne, speaking at the G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Japan, revealed that the forthcoming Treasury analysis on the short term economic consequences of a vote to leave will demonstrate a wide range of negative impacts on families and businesses, including the housing market. It concludes that by 2018, home owners will be hit as growth in Britain’s housing market will be reduced by at least 10% and up to 18% compared to what is expected if the UK remains in the EU, as heightened uncertainty generated by Brexit hits financial markets, consumer confidence and home values. Independent authorities, including the International Monetary Fund, have warned that if Britain votes to leave the EU then mortgage interest rates would also rise because of financial market instability, meaning fewer people being able to get a mortgage and mortgage costs rising for all. The Treasury conclusion follows warnings from Virgin Money’s Chief Executive, the CEBR, S&P, Fitch and Deutsche Bank about the potential negative impact on Britain’s housing market from a vote to leave the EU. The Chancellor said finance ministers from other G7 countries attending the summit in Sendai confirmed that in their assessment, leaving the EU could cause significant financial market turbulence, affecting families and businesses. The Chancellor also challenged the idea that negotiating a new relationship with the EU would be easy if the UK votes to leave, warning that instead it would be a long, costly and messy divorce. In the coming days the Treasury is going to publish analysis of what the immediate impact will be. Osborne also said that mortgages will get more expensive and mortgage rates will go up. ‘If we leave the European Union there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets. People will not know what the future looks like. And in the long term the country and the people in the country are going to be poorer,’ Osborne said. ‘That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10% and up to 18%. And at the same time first time buyers are hit because mortgage rates go up, and mortgages become more difficult to get. So it's a lose-lose situation,’ he pointed out. ‘We all want affordable homes, and the way you get affordable homes is by building more houses. You don't get affordable homes by wrecking the British economy. And of course if we left the EU, mortgage rates would go up, it would become more difficult… Continue reading
