Dubai
Abu Dhabi office market set to weather lower oil prices
Lower oil prices could lead to possible implications for the Abu Dhabi real estate market but commercial property should be able to shrug off such concerns, according to a new analysis. The region’s medium to long term prospects remain strong and there is a limited office supply pipeline which has led to vacancy rates dropping for Prime and Grade A offices in the to 26%. Overall the commercial sector saw a marginal slowdown in the number of enquiries in the second half of 2014, according to the latest Abu Dhabi office research report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. The fall may be due to companies reviewing the impact in falling oil prices and nearly 80% of enquiries were between 100 and 500 square meters, data in the report shows. The overall effect on market rents over 2014 was minimal, but the firm suggests there could be further improvements in headline rents, as little prime or Grade A supply enters the market. Take up during 2014 was still dominated by the oil and gas sector at 16% and government at 15%, which positively impacted the absorption of new accommodation in Abu Dhabi. The leisure and hospitality sector witnessed an increase in the number of enquires, which reflects the government’s efforts in diversifying the economy and growing this sector. Prime office rents edged up in Abu Dhabi in the second half of 2014 to AED1,800 per square meter whilst rental values for Grade A shell and core office space remained steady at AED 1,200 per square meter. Market sentiment through the diversification of the economy continues to improve with mega projects such as Khalifa Port, registering a growth rate of 24% from January to September 2014, compared to the corresponding period in 2013, the report points out. With the Midfield terminal due to be completed in July 2017, this will be expected to positively impact the economy further, in both trade and tourism and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), the newly formed international financial centre in Abu Dhabi, announced that it has signed a 50 year lease for the Financial Building, Al Maryah Island which is owned by a Mubadala subsidiary. The report explains that ADGM will be responsible for establishing a legal jurisdiction, registering entities within the freezone and regulating all financial services activity on the island in line with international standards and under English Common Law. ‘The market dynamics continue to change in Abu Dhabi as the city expands further from the main island,’ said Matthew Dadd, head of Abu Dhabi commercial leasing at Knight Frank. ‘Regardless of economic trends, Abu Dhabi real estate continues to offer a good depth and breadth of opportunities for occupiers, although there is a limited pipeline of new office accommodation which will impact the market in the coming years,’ he added. Continue reading
Residential property prices in Dubai likely to remain steady or fall in 2015
Dubai's residential property bubble is deflating and average prices will remain the same or fall by up to 10% during 2015, a new study suggests. According to international real estate firm JLL, prices and rental rates have grown to an unsustainable rate over the last two years. JLL head of research for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Craig Plumb, said that a period of stability will be good for the market. There have been concerns voiced that lower oil prices could have an impact on the emirate’s property markets but JLL points out that Dubai is less vulnerable to lower oil revenue than other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil exporters, due to its diverse economy and growth in non-oil sectors. Overall, the second half of 2014 saw Dubai’s residential market stabilise as average rents and sale prices remained relatively flat, with marginal declines over the last quarter. On an annual basis, the REIDIN rental index shows growth levels dropping from 18% in 2013 to 15% in 2014. Similarly, the sales market saw some cooling down as the REIDIN sales index points to a decline in growth levels from 23% in 2013 to 20% in 2014. This comes as the number and value of transactions dropped 30% & 14% respectively in 2014, according to data from the Land Department. JLL predicts that the residential sector is likely to remain subdued over the next 12 months as the market is expected to absorb 25,000 additional units in 2015. ‘In reality, we remain cautious of the delivery of some of these projects within the timeframe,’ the firm says. It also points out that as Dubai’s economy continues to expand and job creation grows, demand for affordable housing is expected to increase over the next 12 months. This comes as a proposal to ensure the availability of affordable housing for the middle-income segment of the market is currently under review. ‘These efforts aim to create a balance between the supply of luxury and affordable housing units that cater to all residents in the Emirate, as many were previously priced out of the market during the 2013/2014 price rally,’ the JLL market overview report says. It also shows that in 2014 the supply of units in Dubai increased to 377,000, up from 342,000 in 2011 and the firm predicts that 25,000 residential units will be added in 2015, some 13,000 in 2016 and 12,000 in 2017. ‘While lower oil prices are likely to dampen investment sentiment in the short term, Dubai’s success at diversifying its economy and expanding its global reach makes it less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations,’ the report explains. ‘The next 12 months are expected to see a boost in business activity, highlighted by the government’s 2015 budget announcement which saw planned spending and revenues increase 9% and 11% respectively. However as government charges increase further in 2015, we remain wary of pressures on the cost of living as inflation registered 4% at the… Continue reading
Price growth and new buyer demand declines in UK housing market
House price growth and new buyer demand in the UK both tailed off in December 2014 but stamp duty reforms are still expected to support market activity in the months ahead. Overall, the number of potential new house buyers dipped for the sixth consecutive month in December and price growth fell to its slowest pace since May 2013, the latest residential survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors shows. Across the UK, 10% more surveyors saw the number of potential new buyers decrease in December and London saw the weakest demand, with 45% more surveyors reporting a decline in enquiries, the eighth consecutive monthly decline. The North of England and the South West saw strong rebounds in demand, albeit the underlying picture remains most upbeat in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Despite the slowdown, there is optimism that the stamp duty reforms will deliver a 2% to 5% boost in both sales and prices over the next 12 months, despite members in London expecting sales to decrease by between 5% and 10% and prices to decrease by 2% to 5%, with larger properties and/or those in prime areas expected to see the biggest price decreases. Nationally, as a result of the weaker trend in buyer interest, sales expectations slipped to a net balance of 21%,down from 27% in November, and just 11% more surveyors saw prices rise in December, rather than fall. The volume of agreed sales during December was little changed, while the average number of sales per chartered surveyor slipped to 19 compared to 21.2 in the preceding December. In the month that also saw mortgage approvals fall to their lowest in 18 months, December’s data showed that perceived Loan to Value ratios across properties for first time buyers and existing home owners remained stable at 84.9% and 77.6%, although they are lower compared with the early part of 2014 following the adoption of a more cautious approach to lending as a result of the introduction of the recommendations of the Mortgage Market Review. ‘The changes to stamp duty are expected to provide a timely boost to activity in the housing market across most of the country but there remain significant challenges particularly for first time buyers seeking to take an initial step onto the property ladder,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘Critically, the stock of property on the market continues to hover close to historic lows with new instructions to agents falling in ten of the last twelve months. Indeed, there is a risk that with so little housing available any pick-up in demand could rapidly feed through into higher prices rather higher sales,’ he explained. He pointed out that the RICS lead indicators do provide some encouragement that the level of housebuilding will continue to increase over the course of this year but even with further growth, the volume of home starts will still fall well short of the number of new household being formed… Continue reading
