Dubai
Prices and sales continue downward in Dubai
Residential property prices in Dubai continued to fall in the third quarter of 2015 continue to decline and sales are also falling, the latest published data shows. The Phidar Dubai Real Estate International Demand Index (REIDI) fell significantly in the first half of the year, which, according to the firm is driven primarily by currency fluctuations. According to Jesse Downs, managing director of Phidar Advisory, there is a lower level of international buyers coming to the market and this is related to currency exchange. She pointed out that in the first half of 2015 the midpoint exchange rates for all currencies included in the REIDI are down against the dollar compared to 2014, except the Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar. ‘This is not a measure of actual capital flows, but a real time indicator intended to assess the propensity for attracting capital inflows into Dubai real estate,’ she added. Sales volumes for apartments and single family homes were down in July compared to the previous month, but up compared to July 2014. However, Downs said that this is likely due to seasonal travel patterns shifting around the holy month of Ramadan. Overall in the first half of 2015 apartment transaction volumes were up 3% compared to the same period in 2014, but transactions for single family homes, also referred to as villas, were down 3.2% compared to the first half of 2014. Apartment lease rates decreased a nominal 0.4%, while sale prices decreased 2.7%, pushing yields up to 7.4%. Lease rates for single family homes decreased 1.3% and sale prices decreased 2.6%, which pushed yields up to 4.8%. ‘The increase in yield is a positive and necessary trend in Dubai real estate. Especially in the context of global volatility, this is part of a healthy and necessary, market correction,’ Downs said. But she believes that the most significant finding was in a statistical analysis of the relationship between currencies and Dubai real estate prices. ‘Analysis reveals a significant relationship between three key foreign currencies and Dubai real estate prices. Unsurprisingly, the key currencies are the Indian Rupee, the British Pound and Pakistani Rupee. Changes in Dubai property prices appear linked to fluctuation of these currencies. So, currency trends may help us to understand and forecast local property prices,’ she concluded. Continue reading
Prime residential development land prices in Asia slowing
The price of prime residential development land in Asia slowed to 1.1% in the first half of 2015, down from 3% in the previous six months, but prime office land increased to 3.6%, up from 2.5%. The latest prime Asia development land index from international real estate firm Knight Frank also shows that Phnom Penh in Vietnam recorded the strongest increase in both prime residential and office land price. Prime residential and commercial land prices surging by 14.1% and 9.7% respectively. The report says that foreign investment continued to fuel strong performance in the residential sector but growth decelerated in the second quarter, suggesting that prices are peaking and the momentum will likely moderate in the second half of the year. Land sales in China plummeted by 54.8% year on year at a time when local governments in the country reduced land supply and maintained aggressive pricing as this is their main source of revenue. ‘As a result, developers in China face a double whammy of high land prices and weak sales. With the recent stock market crash, their ability to raise capital is further restricted. Anecdotally, more developers are partnering other firms to pool financial resources and pursue an asset light strategy,’ the report explains. ‘However, there is a silver lining as a recent survey conducted by China Household Finance and the Survey Centre registered signs of capital leaving the stock markets for the housing sector in the second quarter of 2015,’ it says. ‘Against this backdrop, along with a nascent recovery in the residential markets, land prices rose moderately in Beijing, Shanghai and, to a lesser extent, Guangzhou. Moving forward, land prices will continue to be supported by these factors,’ the report adds. Both residential and commercial land enjoyed robust capital appreciation in Hong Kong. The report explains that in addition to the existing healthy demand extra cooling measures, such as a lower maximum loan to value ratio and debt servicing ratio introduced in February 2015 targeting the mass residential market appeared to have channelled demand to the luxury sector. Office space continued to see strong leasing demand from financial institutions amid limited supply. Demand for land is set to increase when the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) gets underway at the end of this year. The report explains that as a result of a freer flow of goods, services and skilled labour could encourage the movement of industries, driving demand for both commercial and residential space. In Bangkok, the price index for office land stalled in the first half of 2015 as developers turned their attention to the luxury condominium market, where continued capital appreciation afforded them higher profit margins. Even so, the prices of residential land grew at a slower but more sustainable pace. Jakarta saw a similar deceleration in price index movements. The economic slowdown has hurt both business and consumer confidence in the country, according to the report. ‘In addition, the government lacks the room to manoeuvre,… Continue reading
Office market in Saudi Arabia flat as new completions offset higher demand
Annual office take up in key Saudi Arabian cities is continuing to rise but higher demand is offset by new office completions, according to the latest report into the country’s commercial property market. In Riyadh and Jeddah in the 12 months to June 2015 this resulted in vacancy rates remaining broadly stable over the same period and rents were also unchanged in the two cities. The analysis from international real estate firm Knight Frank also shows that in the first half of 2015 Grade A and B office rental values in the capital stood at SAR1,300 and SAR900 per square metre per annum, respectively. Meanwhile, Grade A at SAR1,200 per square metre per annum and Grade B at SAR700 per square metre per annum rents in Jeddah were also flat. In Eastern Province, demand for office space was flat in the 12 months to June 2015 and the report points out that there is little to indicate that demand will rise in the near term, suggesting that the completion of new office projects will exert upward pressure on vacancy rates. However, with landlords in the market largely insensitive to changing supply demand dynamics, it is suggests it is difficult to see rents budging from their current levels of SAR1,050 for Grade A offices and SAR700 for Grade B offices. The report says that the current supply of Grade A and Grade B office stock in Riyadh stands at 3.5 million square meters, the majority of which is concentrated in the central and northern parts of the city. ‘Due to current dynamics we do not expect the market as a whole to see increased vacancy rates or a reduction in achievable rental rates as demand for quality commercial spaces that are well located and benefit from good floor plates will remain strong in the short to medium term,’ it adds. Supply of office space in Jeddah currently stands at 820,000 square meters with over 100,000 square meters of office supply due to be added to the market in the short term. As a result of construction delays, the first half of the year saw few completions which resulted in market wide vacancy rates remaining stable at 10%. Total stock is expected to exceed 1 million square meters in the medium term as new supply comes online and the report says that the second half of the year will see additional supply coming from a number of small to medium sized projects. ‘Due to the historic lack of Grade A stock in the market, we see robust demand for good quality offerings in the short to medium term as tenants look to upgrade to better quality premises and the non-oil economy continues to show healthy growth,’ the report adds. Whilst the Eastern Province does not benefit from a well-defined CBD, supply looks set to grow with a number of projects under construction due to be released to the market between the fourth quarter of… Continue reading
