Uk
Demand for prime rental property in central London falls
Demand for rental property in central London’s prime market has fallen in recent months as global companies curb costs resulting in rental values falling in October. Rents in this sector were down 0.5% last month, the steepest decline in two years and annual rental value growth slowed to 1.5% after peaking at 4.2% in May. The data from the latest rental report from real estate firm Knight Frank also shows that the number of tenancies agreed in September was 12% lower than the same month in 2014 and average prime gross rental yields were flat at 2.95%. According to Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, it has been a year of two halves for the prime central London lettings market. Annual rental value growth peaked at 4.2% in May, the month of the general election, as demand transferred from the sales market. ‘The cause was uncertainty around property taxation and increased rates of stamp duty mean it remains a live issue, particularly in the super prime £5,000 plus per week price bracket. However, anxiety around the global economy has dampened demand since the summer,’ he said. ‘The uncertainty has centred on events in China, which has caused companies to curb relocation budgets and recruitment plans. The falling oil price has also impacted sentiment among energy companies,’ he added. He pointed out that advertising giant WPP, whose performance is a useful barometer of how much companies are either cutting costs or spending, said in October firms were feeling risk averse due to geo-political concerns. Rival Publicis said there had been an ‘unusually large’ number of clients postponing or cancelling campaigns. ‘Adding to the sense of a weaker global economy, speculation has grown that the European Central Bank is likely to extend or increase its quantitative easing programme in December in order to stimulate inflation. Against this backdrop, demand for prime rental property has slowed,’ Bill explained. The largest monthly drops were a fall of 2% in South Kensington and a decline of 1.2% in Chelsea, two areas where demand has been traditionally strong among financial services tenants. However, Bill also pointed out that despite these near term uncertainties, the UK economy is performing strongly and the longer term outlook is positive. ‘London will remain one of the most attractive places on earth to do business,’ he concluded. Continue reading
South east and east of England and Scotland seeing strongest house price growth
The south east and east of England are likely to see the strongest house price growth in the UK in 2015 with Scotland also likely to be a strong performer, according to the latest outlook report. The south east is expected to see overall growth of 5.8% this year with the east of England and Scotland both at around 5.8%, according to the report from Strutt & Parker, with Greater London at 5.1%. The firm’s five year outlook also sees these regions having some of the strongest growth with price inflation of 22.8% predicted for the east of England, 22.7% for the south east, 19.8% for Greater London and 18.5% for Scotland. Other areas of interest include the south west with five year growth of 16.5% expected. ‘From our Housing Futures research we know that there is a huge aspiration to live there,’ said Stephanie McMahon, Strutt & Parker’s Head of Research ‘Our national survey showed that 15.6% of respondents who said they had plans to move within the next five years wanted to live in the south west, particularly for retirement and lifestyle reasons,’ she explained. ‘That said, our survey also showed that taking into account all respondents, and analysing by age, that the south west was one of the areas that would experience a large exodus of people between the ages of 18 to 29, indicating that older people have perhaps greater flexibility in their working styles,’ she added. The outlook report predicts house price growth of 15.7% for Northern Ireland over five years, 15.4% for the east midlands, 14.2% for the west midlands, 13.4% for the north west, 11.7% for Yorkshire and Humber, 11.3% for Wales, and 10% for the north east. The report also explains how major developments and events are likely to affect house prices. For example, central London, most notably locations such as Farringdon and Shepherd’s Bush are seeing rises due to the Crossrail infrastructure project. Outside of London, the electrification of the Great Western line with the first stages due to open in 2017 between London, Oxford, Newbury, Bristol and Cardiff means that property prices could rise and homes in the south east, Oxford and Bicester could benefit from the train line from Marylebone being brought into Oxford. The report mentions that there is real concern about potential interest rate increases in 2016 even although they are likely to come incremental shifts. This could affect first time buyers and also home owners with interest only mortgages. Another concern on the horizon is the Bank of England having powers over the buy to let market which could limit the sector and looking further ahead the referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Union has the potential to have an effect on markets. ‘The EU Referendum will take place before the end of 2017. The lobbying has already begun and will escalate over the coming months. Although an immediate and direct impact on the majority… Continue reading
Central London commercial property availability rises for first time in two years
The availability of central London commercial property was still below trend at the end of the third quarter of 2015 despite seeing its first rise in two years, according to new research. Following two years of decline, the figure increased by 6% but was still 29% below the 10 year average of 14.7 million square feet, the data report from global real estate consultancy CBRE shows. It explains that the 6% increase in availability is partly due to a dip in take-up, which fell 11% while remaining above the 10 year average, but more down to the 42% rise in marketed availability as many un-let properties moved within 12 months of completion. Developments headed for completion in 2015 are expected to reach 3.6 million square feet t. and forecasters predict this figure will rise to 6.6 million in 2016, marking a return to pre-crisis levels. ‘Availability in central London crept upwards in the third quarter after a small dip in take-up, given the hefty rise in City developments nearing completion. I find it extremely promising that by next year, completions will be well over six million square feet, the highest levels we’ve seen since 2009,’ said Emma Crawford, head of central London leasing at CBRE. The report also shows that the availability of newly completed and second hand space fell over the third quarter, reflected in a drop in the vacancy rate from 2.8% to 2.7%. Meanwhile, developments under offer remained above the 10 year average, despite falling 4% in the quarter. For the first time in two years, the highest proportion of these properties, some 32%, were in the West End. ‘We’re seeing significant take-up in the West End, with a wave of global capital targeting the area and high profile occupants like Facebook taking up large office spaces. Looking at the central London area as a whole, despite a small dip in developments under offer, we’re sitting way above average for the decade and should take comfort in the overall growth we’ve seen this year,’ Crawford pointed out. Meanwhile, the UK regional office markets have continued to build upon 2014’s growth, with the volume of office space taken in the UK’s big six regional cities in the third quarter totalling 939,000 square feet, just 7% below the level recorded at the same time last year. Over a longer time frame, combined take-up over the first nine months of 2015 totalled 3.5 million square feet which is 5% higher than the same period one year ago. As a result, the grand total for 2015 is likely reach if not surpass last year’s total, and well on target to exceed the five year annual average level of four million square feet. In many of the core regional cities, pre-letting has returned in strength, with professional service firms in particular taking advantage of the new generation of office buildings that are about to emerge in cities such… Continue reading
