Uk
Bank of England closely monitoring UK buy to let lending
The Bank of England has confirmed that it is closely monitoring the buy to let sector in the UK following changes announced in the sector in the autumn statement. Its latest Financial Stability Report says that the buy to let sector continues to drive growth in the UK mortgage market and the Bank of England believes it is more interest rate sensitive than the owner occupied sector and warns that strong growth may have implications for financial stability. It means that more buy to let lending controls may therefore be on the cards. That would be another blow to the sector. Landlord wishing to enter the sector and those looking to expand their portfolios already face paying an extra 3% in stamp duty from next April and there have also been changes to tax on earnings. The Financial Stability Report says that since 2010, credit loss rates incurred on buy to let loans in the UK have been around twice those incurred on lending to owner occupiers. It points out that the buy to let sector continues to drive growth in the mortgage market and while greater competition in this sector has not to date led to a widespread deterioration in underwriting standards of UK banks, strong growth in buy to let lending may have implications for financial stability. ‘The FPC remains alert to financial stability risks arising from rapid growth in buy to let mortgage lending and notes the difference in underwriting standards in the owner occupier and buy to let mortgage markets, in particular in the typical interest rates used in affordability stress tests,’ it says. ‘New loans to buy to let investors are often subject to less stringent affordability tests than loans to owner occupiers. According to industry standards, the affordability of a buy to let loan is typically tested by ensuring that the rental income exceeds 125% of loan interest payments at a mortgage interest rate of 5% to 6%. In contrast, and in accordance with the FPC’s June 2014 Recommendation, the affordability of loans to owner occupiers is tested by ensuring that the borrower has sufficient income to cover their mortgage payments at a more stringent mortgage interest rate of around 7%, despite owner occupier mortgage rates tending to be around 0.7% lower,’ the report continues. ‘Assessed against these affordability metrics, buy to let borrowers may be more vulnerable than owner occupiers to an unexpected rise in interest rates or a fall in income. For example, if mortgage rates rose by 300 basis points, the increment by which the FPC recommended the affordability of mortgages to owner occupiers is tested, nearly 60% of buy to let borrowers who took out loans recently would see their rental income no longer covering 125% of their interest payments. By comparison, only 4% of recent owner occupier borrowers would see their mortgage debt costs rise to above 40% of income, a level above which households… Continue reading
US home prices growth set to send first time buyers into the suburbs, says new research
Deteriorating housing affordability will the main drive factor of residential property trends in the United States in 2016, according to a new analysis report. A lack of affordable homes near city centres will push new and first time buyers to suburbs that feel like walkable, amenity rich mini-cities, says the study from real estate form Zillow. It also explains that rising rents will force more young renters to wait longer before buying a home. And the looming threat of rising mortgage interest rates will slowly erode some of the terrific mortgage affordability the market has enjoyed for the past few years. Zillow's 2016 Housing Market Predictions report says that the median age of first time buyers will reach new highs in 2016 as millennials put off home ownership and other major life decisions. Growth in home values will outpace incomes, especially for low income Americans. In 2016, those whose incomes fall in the bottom third of all incomes will be priced out of home ownership and unable to afford even the least expensive homes on the market, it suggests. Rising rents won't let up in 2016, and will continue to set new records. The next year will bring the least affordable median rents ever, the report also predicts. As affordable housing close to city centres grows increasingly scarce, people will move farther out. Dense, walkable suburbs with an urban feel, especially those that offer good access to the city will be 2016's new hot spots. The median expectation of more than 100 economic and housing experts surveyed in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey suggests that home values are set to grow about 3.5% in 2016. ‘Rents will continue to increase at a brisk rate in 2016, but many potential first-time buyers are living in hot markets where buying a home is really expensive,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘In 2016, we'll start to see more people in hot coastal markets forced to move farther from the core of the city to find housing. When they get there, they'll be looking for amenity rich suburbs like mini cities, with walkable cores and an urban feel,’ she explained. ‘As renters gradually transition into homeowners, the historically low home ownership rate should stop falling quite as quickly as it has been. However, the median age of first time buyers, already the highest it has ever been at about 33, will climb higher. Millennials want to buy, but they are waiting longer than previous generations,’ she pointed out. ‘All of this will happen against a backdrop of slowly increasing interest rates. That will make some homeowners think twice about selling, and many of them will decide to remodel their current homes instead,’ she concluded. Continue reading
New housing commission launched in UK
A new Housing Commission has been launched in the UK to explore new routes to house building so councils can enable the construction of more desperately needed homes. Councils built nine times more homes between 2010 and 2015 than between 2000 and 2005 and are desperate to dramatically increase the availability of new homes in their local areas, according to the Local Government Association. The LGA said this is vital to building the 230,000 new homes the country needs each year as private developers have not built more than 150,000 homes a year for more than three decades. The Housing Commission will also explore the importance of effective housing in boosting jobs and growth, helping meeting needs of an ageing population, saving social care and the NHS money, and helping people into work. It will look at new ways that councils can enable investment in new homes, the role of councils in shaping homes within prosperous places and communities, the role of housing in supporting tenants to find and progress in sustained employment and the role of housing in adapting to an ageing population and preventing onward costs onto social care and health services. Evidence is sought on the key issues for communities, partners and councils, on good practice that has successfully addressed those issues, and what is needed to build on those successes. Councils, partners, organisations and individuals are invited to contribute their issues, evidence, and examples of effective housing and ideas to the Commission's Advisory Panel, made up of experts and academics. The Commission will take a medium term view incorporating current housing reforms but will look beyond them in making the case for councils to be able to deliver the homes our communities and places need. Findings will be brought together in a report in Spring 2016 and presented at the LGA Annual Conference in June 2016. ‘We're working with government to ensure housing and planning reforms support council efforts to build more homes and the Housing Commission we are launching today will investigate how the government and councils can help deliver houses to solve our housing shortage,’ said Peter Box, LGA housing spokesman. ‘Councils must be able to play a lead role in building the homes we desperately need, and building the homes in a way that create prosperous places and growth, help people into work and positively adapt to an ageing population,’ he explained. ‘This is the best way to meet local and central government ambitions for our communities, to reduce waiting lists and housing benefit, keep rents low and help more people live long and happy lives,’ he added. Continue reading
