Uk
Buy to let landlords in UK well placed to cope with an interest rate rise
Buy to let landlords in the UK are financially resilient and are well placed to cope with expected higher borrowing costs, according to a new survey. Asked how they would deal with a 1.5% rise in Bank rate, three quarters foresaw no problems in paying their mortgage, says the data from the YouGov survey. More than 60% said their rental income would remain higher than their mortgage payments, and 40% said they already had enough money to cover higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, according to data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) lenders have increased the average rate at which they stress test buy to let mortgages and after a strong first quarter, the CML expects buy to let purchases to decline in 2016 but buy to let remortgaging to remain robust. According to the transactional data collected by the CML from lenders accounting for about 90% of new lending, the typical stressed mortgage rate being used by the industry has increased by 50 basis points to between 5.6% and 5.7% over the past year. According to Bob Pannell, CML chief economist, while this is still some way from the rates implied for lending to home owners, a more forced pace of adjustment would risk destabilising the buy to let sector. He also pointed out that landlords identify a range of strategies for coping with higher mortgage costs, including the positive cash flow that rental payments currently provide and ready access to contingency funds. But he also pointed out that a number of tax measures have been announced in recent months, and these are likely to have a dampening effect on future growth prospects for buy to let and the private rented sector. ‘The reduction of tax reliefs available to private landlords from 2017/2018 onwards, announced by the chancellor in the summer 2015 Budget, will adversely affect the future cash flows for affected landlords,’ said Pannell. ‘Landlords should be able to mitigate the direct financial impact in a number of ways. Indeed, the YouGov research corroborates our view that the overall impact will be to lift rents higher and to narrow the availability of homes in the private rented sector,’ he explained. ‘The direct effects appear modest, but are likely to be reinforced by the stamp duty changes, announced in the chancellor’s autumn statement. The rapid succession of recent tax changes also risks having a significant indirect effect on investor sentiment, altering the direction of travel for buy to let lending and the further expansion of the private rented sector,’ he added. The CML’s latest market forecasts envisage house purchase activity by buy to let landlords falling away over 2016 and 2017. Given the significant lags in government housing initiatives stimulating additional housing supply, this raises a question about the future availability of rental accommodation in the face of ongoing demographic pressures. ‘In this context, macro-prudential intervention, if or when it is applied to buy to let lending, carries a significant risk of unintended consequences… Continue reading
Property market in Cyprus is stabilising but recovery unlikely yet in coming months
Residential property prices in Cyprus appear to be stabilising but experts are divided on how the market will pan out over 2016. The most up to date figures from the Cyprus Central Bank’s index covering the third quarter of 2015 shows that prices fell by 0.3%, consistent with the 0.4% and 1% falls during the previous quarters. Year on year prices are down 3.7%, an improvement on the previous quarterly fall of 5% and a breakdown of the figures suggest that apartment prices in some locations, most notably Limassol, Larnaca and Paphos are rising, a further sign of stability in the market. The biggest fall in prices quarter on quarter was in Famagusta with a decrease of 1.6%, followed by Nicosia down 1.3% and Limassol down 0.1%. While prices in Larnaca and Paphos rose by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Apartments are showing signs of more resilience. While quarter on quarter apartment prices fell 1.5% in Famagusta and 0.6% in Nicosia but increased by 2.1% in Limassol, 1.5% in Paphos and 0.3% in Larnaca. According to Daryl Fitzgerald, director of Fitzgerald Estates Agency in Paphos, pointed out that sales are also improving. They increased by 64% in Nicosia, by 30% in Paphos, and by 28% in Limassol in October. But fell by 1% in Larnaca. He pointed out that the statistics show that 96% of total property sales in Nicosia were registered to Cypriot nationals whilst only 4% were bought by overseas buyers, suggesting that international buyers are not yet coming back to the market in the city. But in Paphos, which has the largest number of holiday homes registered to overseas owners in the whole of Cyprus, there has been a 103% increase in sales to Cypriots in October. ‘From the brink of the financial and banking abyss, Cyprus is steadily emerging a stronger economy and a stronger nation. The financial restrictions are but a memory, our banks have been upgraded and almost given a clean bill of health, the title deeds issue is being dealt with and the buyers have more and more tools to fight the good fight to get the deeds,’ said Fitzgerald. He believes that what is happening in Paphos is interesting as it was the centre of the property bubble on the Mediterranean island. ‘The sudden interest by Cypriot buyers signals that the prices have reached bottom and are stabilising. Cypriots know this and are taking advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity,’ he explained. However, the latest report from Resolute Asset Management in Cyprus suggests that 2016 is not set to see a revival of the real estate market. It says that while sales increased by 9% in the first 11 months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, compared to 2007 sales are still down by 79%. The firm believes that sales volumes will remain low in 2016. Its report suggests that foreigners who are tempted to buy in Cyprus will be concentrated on… Continue reading
Over a quarter of sales fell through in the UK in last few months of 2015
The house sale fall through rate in the UK increased in the last quarter of 2015, with more than one in four house sales falling through, new research has found. There was a house sale fall through rate of 27.94% in the fourth quarter of 2015, a rise 8.32% from the previous quarter, according to the figures from independent home buyer Quick Move Now. However, the year to date fall through rate remained fairly constant throughout 2015, at around 29% and finished the year at 29.26%. According to Danny Luke, business manager at Quick Move Now, it was an interesting year for the UK property market, and the fall through rates reflect that. ‘Tougher lending criteria was introduced as a result of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), which meant some prospective buyers found it challenging to secure a mortgage, or found they were able to borrow less than they had anticipated,’ he said. He pointed out that some 9% of sales that fell through did so as a result of not being able to secure a mortgage and the two biggest reasons for house sales falling through the last quarter were buyers changing their mind at 27.2% and problems identified at survey or failed renegotiation following a survey also at 27.2%. ‘A lack of properties coming to market has led to prospective buyers having to move very quickly in order to secure a property, and may mean they put an offer in on a less than ideal property through fear that they'll be unable to find anything else. Some inevitably get cold feet about such a large investment, or find that a survey confirms their fears, and pull out before the sale completes,’ explained Luke. The research also found that chain collapse still featured prominently with 22.7% of property sales falling through as a result of chain issues, and it's definitely an issue very much on sellers' minds. ‘We get calls every day from sellers keen to secure a guaranteed sale so they don't risk missing out on their onward purchase due to chain collapse,’ added Luke. Other reasons involved the seller pulling out for a higher offer, affecting 9% of cases and buyer health issues or personal problems accounted for 4.5%. Continue reading
