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Property prices in New Zealand outside of Auckland reach new record
Property prices and sales in New Zealand increased in December with median home values, excluding Auckland, reaching a new record. Sales were up 3.5% year on year but fell 9.1% compared with November, according to the latest index from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. The median prices of a home nationwide increased by 1.2% month on month and 3.3% year on year to $465,000, a rise of $15,000. Excluding Auckland the rise was 8%, taking the median to $379,000. It is the fourth consecutive record median in 2015 and there was also a new record median prices also Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington, Nelson/Marlborough and Otago. In Auckland median prices increased by 13.6% year on year to $770,000, and increased by 0.7% month on month. REINZ chief executive Colleen Milne pointed out that regional markets, particularly Northland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Hawkes Bay and Central Otago Lakes, are now setting the pace for the New Zealand real estate market, with Auckland, in a relative sense, now in the middle of the pack. ‘The decline in sales volume in Auckland, while noticeable, is likely transitory as the region gets to grips with the new LVR rules for investors, although the median price continues to firm,’ she said. ‘Over the past six months regional markets have demonstrated large declines in the levels of inventory, a significant decline in the number of days to sell, and noticeable increases in the median price, with a number of regions setting new median price records more than once over 2015,’ she added. In addition, Wellington, Manawatu /Wanganui and Otago are also seeing positive movements in days to sell and median prices. ‘This breadth of the improvement across New Zealand suggests that there is more is at play than just an Auckland halo effect, although that has contributed in the northern regions,’ Milne explained. Sales volumes excluding Auckland were down 8.1% from November but up 17.5% on December 2014. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Auckland’s sales volumes were up 8.3% compared to November, indicating that while the headline number showed a sharp drop in sales compared to November, after taking into account seasonal effects, sales were in fact stronger than would have been expected. Northland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay continued to see the most robust sales growth. Aside from Auckland, Hawke’s Bay was the only region to record increased sales volumes compared to November, with volumes growing 0.4%. Year on year nine regions recorded increases in sales volume, with Northland recording the largest increase of 39%, followed by Waikato/Bay of Plenty with 30% and Taranaki with 27%. Continue reading
Farmland values in England down almost 2% in final quarter of 2015
English farmland values fell by almost 2% in the final quarter of 2015 to end the year at £8,165 an acre, according to the latest index report. The data from the Knight Frank Farmland Index shows that it was the first quarterly fall since December 2012. However, the average value of bare agricultural land still rose 4% in the first half of the year and 3% overall during 2015. This compares with a rise of 1% for prime London residential property and falls for the FTSE 100 of 5% and gold down 7%. Looking over a wider period of time farmland in England has increased in price by 41% over five years, by 196% over 10 years and by 5,089% over 50 years. The Knight Frank report suggests that there are a number of reasons why values have come back. ‘The continuing run of low commodity prices had to have an impact on buyer confidence at some point. Feed wheat is worth just half of what it was fetching just a few years ago and many dairy and livestock businesses are struggling to remain profitable,’ said Andrew Shirley, head of rural research at Knight Frank. ‘The fact that land values have held up so well indicates that commodity prices are far from the most important driver of the land market,’ he explained, adding that uncertainty about the outcome of the European Union referendum, likely to be held this year, will also be holding back some potential buyers concerned about the potential impact of a Brexit. The delayed payment of agricultural subsidies to some farmers and a potential hike in interest rates will also have dampened spirits. Currently Knight Frank is not predicting that the fourth quarter fall presages a long run of prices drops. ‘Indeed, assuming the UK votes to remain in the EU, it is entirely possible that 2016 could see prices rise slightly,’ said Shirley. ‘Many farming businesses, particularly those with profitable renewable energy schemes, remain cash generative and are looking to expand. There are also a significant number of farmers who have sold land for development or via compulsory purchase and are looking for agricultural property to reinvest into,’ he pointed out. ‘The market will continue to be extremely localised. Large blocks of investment grade land which were achieving prices of over £13,000 an acre last year may see values come off as investors await the outcome of the EU referendum, but where there is competitive bidding from local farmers, values will remain firm,’ he added. Continue reading
House prices in Scotland up twice the rate of England and Wales
House price growth in Scotland is outpacing that seen in England and Wales with values up 0.8% in November, twice the rate seen in the rest of the UK. This takes the average price of a home in Scotland to £169,850, up 2.4% compared wot November 2014, according to the latest index from Your Move. East Renfrewshire had the biggest upswing as new home developments lifted prices 5.2% since October and overall it was the strongest November for home sales since 2007 with transactions up 13% year on year. According to Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, the rise provides a welcome bounce back for home owners after a turbulent year but house prices are still below March’s record peak. The driving force behind this up and down has been the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) last April which while lowering tax for the vast majority of buyers has hit the top end of the market. However, as high end housing stock starts to shift again, price rises are strengthening in more expensive areas but Campbell warned that the growth spurt may be short lived with the 3% surcharge on second home and buy to let property purchases coming into force in April. ‘If the impact of this tax increase mirrors the effect of the LBTT, we may see a sharp spike in values at the start of 2016 as buy to let buyers rush to avoid the tax hike, followed by a sudden dip after its introduction,’ said Campbell. ‘Investors may well be dissuaded from purchasing additional properties then, with a £250,000 home liable for an extra £7,500 in Stamp Duty once the tax is implemented. Sellers may find themselves having to subsequently reduce prices to make their properties more attractive, accounting for the higher surcharge for some buyers. There have been cases of some developers offering £10,000 contributions towards the LBTT in order to sell their units,’ she explained. The data also shows that on the back of strong monthly growth in October, East Lothian has now overtaken Inverclyde as the mainland region with the highest annual increase in property prices at 10.9%. ‘This region illustrates the recovery in the top end of the market with 30 sales of properties worth over half a million pounds in the last three months, a significant improvement on 18 sales in the same period last year,’ said Campbell. ‘The most notable of the sales was a nine bedroom property going for £2.6 million, the second most expensive property sold this year. This marks a clear turning point when you consider the drought of million pound home sales immediately after the introduction of the LBTT,’ she pointed out. She also explained that November’s home sales have defied the odds by avoiding the usual seasonal slowdown. Transactions increased 1.2% month on month in a period where there is usually see a 4% dip. South… Continue reading
