Uk
Home prices set to rise 5.4% in the United States in 2016
Home prices across the United States, including distressed sales, increased year on year by 6.3% in December 2015 and increased month on month by 0.8%, the latest index shows. And forecast data from the CoreLogic House Price Index also indicates that home prices are set to rise by 5.4% this year. ‘Nationally, home prices have been rising at a 5% to 6% annual rate for more than a year,’ said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. However, he added that local market growth can vary substantially from that. For example, some metropolitan areas have had double digit appreciation, such as Denver and Naples, Florida, while others have had price declines, like New Orleans and Rochester, New York. ‘Higher property valuations appear to be driving up single-family construction as we head into the spring. Additional housing stock, especially in urban centres on the coasts such as San Francisco, could help to temper home price growth in the longer term,’ said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. ‘In the short and medium term, local markets with strong employment growth are likely to experience a continued rise in home sales and price growth well above the US average,’ he added. Meanwhile, research from real estate firm Zillow shows that buyers in Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C. have to stay in a home for at least three years to break even on a home purchase, and buyers in the Bay Area would have to stay nearly that long to make buying financially advantageous. In general, Americans can break even on a home purchase in less than two years in 70% of US metros and the firm says that this is thanks to low interest rates, healthy home value forecasts, and the relatively fast pace of rents in recent years. The Breakeven Horizon index shows that on average you don't need to plan on living in a home for even two years to make purchasing the home more financially advantageous than renting it over the same time period. Among large housing markets, the Breakeven Horizon is longest in Washington, D.C. at 4.5 years and shortest in Dallas at 1.3 years. Around the country over the last year, the Breakeven Horizon quickened in most of the Midwest and Southeast as well as in the Northeast corridor from New York to Boston. The Horizon stretched longer in Florida, Northern California, and in the Northeast from Virginia Beach to Philadelphia, but it remained clear that financially, it's still a better deal to buy a home than rent it, assuming you're planning to stay in the home for at least a couple years. ‘Even with record high rents in places like San Jose, Boston and Washington, D.C., putting off a home purchase might be the best financial decision for a young person who has saved enough for a down payment, depending on how long they intend to stay in their jobs and homes,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja… Continue reading
Amendments to tenancies bill in Scotland could hit provision of rural homes
New amendments to the Private Housing (Tenancies) Bill in Scotland have the potential to create significant problems for the provision of rural homes, it is claimed. The Bill has reached its stage two process within the Scottish Parliament with the Infrastructure and Capital Investment Committee meeting to discuss amendments that have been lodged. In total, 198 amendments had been submitted to the original draft Bill, demonstrating the depth of feeling regarding the future of the private rented sector and perhaps indicating there has been a lack of thorough consideration due to rushed timescales. However, Scottish Land and Estates said that it was particularly concerned that an amendment by Alex Johnstone MSP to allow a landlord to ask a tenant to leave in order to accommodate a new or retiring employee had been rejected. ‘The Scottish Government has stated repeatedly that the aim is for a simpler tenancy which strikes a fair balance by offering tenants more security and giving landlords robust and comprehensive grounds so they have the confidence to let without fear of not being able to recover possession under reasonable circumstances,’ said Katy Dickson, policy officer for business and property at Scottish Land and Estates. ‘The drafted legislation went some way towards this balance point but disappointingly a number of amendments which were approved will leave landlords dismayed that the new tenancy will bring the uncertainty and imbalance that they feared at the outset of the Bill,’ she explained. One of the main concerns for rural landlords is the rejection of Alex Johnstone’s amendment to allow a landlord to repossess a property in order to house a new employee or retired employee. ‘This ground would come with a full notice period and prior notification at the outset of the lease so that security was not lessened on all let property. Without this ground the ability for rural businesses to grow is restricted and landlords may well choose to move property out of the long term letting market into a holiday home or decide to leave it empty,’ Dickson explained. She said that frustration is growing at the Scottish Government’s continued lack of appreciation of the importance of this ground. ‘The Housing Minister repeatedly stated that a family should not be moved out to allow an employee to move in but has failed to recognise that an employee often comes with a family. The fact that there is similar uncontested ground for religious workers adds further confusion as why can tenants’ security be lessened for religious workers but not farm workers?’ added Dickson. She accused the Scottish Government of making a surprising U-turn by proposing an amendment to remove the initial period when they had previously stated that this provided landlords and tenants with security. ‘This was a disproportionate reaction to some campaign groups raising fears that it may be problematic for a limited number of people… Continue reading
Buy to let investors pushing up property prices in UK ahead of tax change
The UK residential property market saw a modest rise in new instructions in January but despite higher supply there is still considerable demand due to buy to let investors seeking to avoid Aprils stamp duty change. The latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors also says that this means that the near term pressure on prices is intensifying despite a higher level of supply. Feedback to the survey continues to suggest that the recent increase in demand is due to a rush of buy to let investors looking to buy before the 3% stamp duty surcharge comes into effect in April. Some 74% of respondents expect there will be an increase in buy to let purchase as supply picked up across UK, most notably in London where the increase has been significant with a net balance of +58% more noting an increase. Elsewhere, sales instructions across the UK were much flatter. New buyer enquiries rose for the tenth successive month in January, with the pace of growth in enquiries accelerating for a second consecutive report. As activity in the housing market gathers pace overall, agreed sales have risen over the month at the fastest pace since April 2014. The picture across the UK is mixed but most areas have seen a rise in sales since the start of the year and further increases are expected. Supply has also gathered pace in the past two months but stock remains low with 46 properties per branch from 44.5, which is still 21% down compared to a year ago. Even with an improvement in supply, the rush to acquire buy to let property is pushing prices up, with 49% more surveyors reporting prices to have risen in January. Looking ahead, house prices are projected to rise further over the next 12 months, with 72% more contributors expecting prices to increase rather than fall. In the lettings market, tenant demand increased once more, with all areas of the UK seeing a rise in interest from prospective tenants during the three months to January and at the same time, landlord instructions were broadly flat. This extends an uninterrupted run in which supply has failed to keep pace with demand stretching back to 2009. As a result, expectations point to continued rental growth in all parts of the UK both at 12 month and five year time horizons, the report says. ‘How the tax changes planned for the buy to let sector over the next few years plays out remains to be seen, but there are concerns raised in the survey that existing landlords will look to either gradually scale back on their portfolios or exit the market altogether as the more penal regime begins to bite,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘Against this backdrop, it is perhaps not surprising that our key indicators point to further rent, as well as house price increases. Steve Bolton, founder of Platinum Property Partners, pointed out that those investors… Continue reading
