Uk
UK house prices down by 1% month on month, too early to judge Brexit effect
House prices in the UK fell by 1% between June and July, taking the average price to £214,678, according to the latest index which also shows that overall growth is slowing. In the three months to July prices were 1.6% higher than in the preceding three months, above June’s 1.1% increase and similar to the rates recorded in April and May of 1.5% but it significantly lower than in February and March. The data from leading lender the Halifax, also shows that prices in the three months to July were 8.4% higher than in the same three months a year earlier, unchanged from June but the lowest since July 2015 when it was 7.8%. The month on month decline largely offset the 1.2% increase in June, but Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist pointed out that month on month changes can be erratic and monthly falls often occur within an upward trend. He explained that it was the third monthly fall so far this year and was smaller than February’s decline of 1.5% and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend. The number of first time buyers increased by an estimated 10% in the first six months of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, according to the Halifax First Time Buyer Review. There were an estimated 154,200 first time buyers in the first half of 2016 compared with 140,500 in the same period last year. This was more than double the market low in the first half of 2009 when it was 72,700. Nonetheless, the number of first time buyers in the first half of 2016 was nearly a fifth lower than in 2006. ‘There are signs that house price growth is slowing with a deceleration in both the annual and quarterly rates of increase in the past few months. Nonetheless, the current rates remain robust. Overall, it remains too early to determine if there has been any impact on the housing market as a result of June’s EU referendum result,’ Ellis added. Alex Gosling, chief executive officer of online estate agents HouseSimple, also believes that too much should not be taken from the monthly figure. ‘There are so many factors at play right now, we're probably going to have to wait until September to get a clearer picture of how the housing market is coping with this headwind of political and economic uncertainty,’ he said. ‘Property transaction levels traditionally drop off during the summer months,’; he explained, adding that there have been a number of other factors impacting the housing market in recent months such as April stamp duty changes, the EU Referendum, and the cut in interest rates. ‘The Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates yesterday should definitely provide a stabilising effect on the economy. Whether that will be enough to inject the necessary confidence into the property market only time will tell. It will certainly provide a level of confidence… Continue reading
Research shows Olympic legacy has boosted house prices in east London
As the Rio 2016 Olympic Games get underway new research shows how house prices closest to the 2012 Olympic Park have increased three times faster than the national market. Homes closest to Olympic Park have seen more than 50% added to their value with prices up by £3,522 per month since the London Games ended in 2012. The research from Lloyds bank also shows that the majority of areas close to the main site have recorded price growth in excess of £100,000 since September 2012. Average property prices in the 14 postal districts in East London closest to the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park have risen from £286,638 in September 2012 at the close of the Paralympic Games to £438,065 in March 2016, an increase of 53% or £151,427, equivalent to a monthly rise of £3,522. This is more than three times the rate of increase seen in England and Wales and nationally property values grew on average by 17% over the same period from £234,947 to £275,872. Price performance in the 14 East London areas has also outpaced London as a whole. Since September 2012 the average price in the capital has grown by 32% to an average price of £557,359. In the four years since the last Olympic Games, the average price in all but one of the 14 areas has risen by over £100,000. In cash terms the largest rise was seen in Shoreditch, where the average property price has grown by £245,330, followed by Dalston at £203,113, Homerton at £197,737 and Bethnal Green at £178,893. East Ham recorded the lowest rise in prices, a relatively modest increase of £83,566 in four years. ‘The last Olympics Games, held in London, was a great event which captured the world’s attention for a few weeks in 2012, but the longer term benefits of the Games are still being felt today, particularly for home owners in the areas close to the Olympic Park who have seen property prices outperform both the national and London markets,’ said Nitesh Patel, Lloyds Bank housing economist. ‘Since the Games closed in September 2012, regeneration in this part of the capital has seen significantly improved transport connections and facilities, which have helped attract businesses and households to the area and in turn boosted local property values,’ Patel added. In the 11 years since the Games were awarded to London in July 2015, the average property price in the 14 postal districts in East London closest to the Olympic Park has grown from £206,398 to £438,065 in March 2016 an increase of 112% or £231,667, which is equivalent to a monthly increase of £1,796. They have also outperformed the increase in England and Wales in this timescale as nationally property values grew on average by 48% over the same period from £185,783 in July 2005 to £275,872 in March 2016. In the past year, house prices in the 14 areas closest to the Olympic Park rose by 15%, from £379,663 in March… Continue reading
First time buyer property valuation activity increased after Brexit vote
Housing market activity in the UK has shifted in favour of first time buyers and remortgagors, in the first full month after the vote to leave the European Union, according to the latest research. Overall, July has seen the number of all property valuations fall 2% compared to the same month last year, says the latest monthly analysis from Connells Survey and Valuation, which reflects a slight cooling compared to June. ‘Judging the Brexit effect might take years but in the meantime the first full month after the vote already looks encouraging as change has mainly been confined to the mixture of activity, rather than the overall volume of valuations,’ said John Bagshaw, corporate services director of Connells Survey & Valuation,. The data shows that activity in the first time buyer and remortgaging sectors have driven July’s valuation market. There were 12% more first time buyer valuations in July 2016 than in July 2015. Meanwhile remortgaging activity also saw the same 12% annual rate of growth. ‘July was particularly good for those making their first step on the property ladder. Despite some widespread fears about Brexit, any negative impact on wages, employment or inflation has not materialised and first time are continuing to make the most of government schemes and are now boosted by even lower mortgage rates this summer. This is the same development that is proving a boost for remortgagors, also benefitting from a new wave of even better mortgage deals,’ Bagshaw explained. Those already on the property ladder looking to move home appear to have been slightly more cautious in July than those making their first step. Compared to the same month in 2015, home mover valuations have fallen in number by 8%. Similarly, buy to let activity has been relatively cooler in July than at the same point a year ago. The total number of valuations for buy to let purchases has now fallen by 41% since July 2015. ‘Buy to let activity is steady post-Brexit vote, even if at a level lower than last year. In fact this correction is not new, and mainly not as a result of referendum uncertainty. Since April, held back by the Government’s 3% Stamp Duty surcharge, some landlords are pausing for thought,’ Bagshaw explained. ‘Looking ahead, tax changes are increasingly factored in to landlords’ investment plans which forms a strong core of buy to let activity focused on the long term and a solid basis of future growth in demand for valuations from landlords,’ he added. Continue reading
