Uk
Demand continues to fall in prime central London property market
Although the wider UK property market is yet to suffer any detrimental impact from Brexit, London’s prime market is seeing demand continue to fall, the latest index suggests. In the £1 million plus sector in London demand has fallen by 10%, the lowest level on record and a further drop since demand cooled following April’s changes to stamp duty for buy to let and second homes purchases. The data from the prime central London property index from hybrid estate agent eMoov shows that the five areas where demand is at its lowest are Mayfair at 3%, St Johns Wood, Knightsbridge and Belgravia all at 4% and Fitzrovia at 5%. The index, which records the change in supply and demand for property above £1 million by monitoring the total number of properties sold in comparison to those on sale, shows that some 75% of London’s most prestigious locations have seen demand remain static or drop since the second quarter of the year. Indeed, the only places to have seen a positive uplift in demand for property over the last three months are Holland Park at 44%, Marylebone at 38%, Notting Hill at 17% and Primrose Hill at 9%. Notting Hill is also fourth hottest where demand levels are concerned, currently at 14%. With Belsize Park enjoying the highest demand across the prime central London sector at 18%, followed by Islington at 17%, Chiswick at 15% and Holland Park at 13%. According to Russell Quirk, eMoov chief executive officer this slowdown was always likely to happen as these areas of London rely heavily on high end foreign investment and second home visitors to survive. ‘Whilst the rest of the UK market seems to be ticking along with little impact as of yet, the immediate weakening of the sterling and negative response from the rest of the EU seems to have had an instantaneous knock-on effect on the prime central London market,’ he said. Continue reading
Commercial property more likely to be affected by Brexit than residential
Volatile markets since the UK voted to leave the European Union are clouding prospects for the nation’s real estate sector with commercial sectors most likely to be affected, according to a new analysis. Commercial real estate companies, especially those most exposed to London's financial districts, could be most affected by falling valuations and rents, followed by home builders in the higher end segment, says the report from S&P Global Ratings. ‘We anticipate the drop in valuation will be on average less dramatic for residential real estate assets than for the commercial sector, although it will vary between segments and geographies, the report says. ‘High end and luxury apartments in central London were already experiencing some negative trends in the past few months. We would expect this situation to continue given that this segment relies more heavily on foreign investors, which we expect may be even more hesitant buyers now, despite the fall in sterling,’ it points out. ‘On the other hand, we believe that value fluctuation in the mid-range and affordable segments will likely be more limited, especially given the structural undersupply of housing in the UK and the expected lower for longer interest rate environment. Any long term impact on migration flux as a result of a Brexit may nonetheless have some negative consequences on households' growth and ultimately on residential real estate overall. However, we view this risk as more remote for now,’ it explains. Home builders, the report says, could be more heavily affected by Brexit fallout than residential real estate investment companies. This is especially if demand for new homes starts falling should purchase decisions be delayed in the context of uncertainties created by the Brexit vote. ‘We understand that home builders are monitoring closely their weekly sales rates, footfall to showrooms, and mortgage approval rates, as key indicators of operating performance. These indicators seem to have remained relatively healthy so far, in particular in the affordable segment, and mortgage availability continues to be robust as opposed to the previous downturn in 2008/2009, the report says. ‘However, some deterioration cannot be ruled out, especially because the sector is strongly correlated to GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence, which are all expected to be negatively affected in the coming months and years,’ it adds. The report also points out that home builders already observed some declines in sales rates in the second quarter of 2016, although this seems to have been related more to the change in stamp duty than concerns over Brexit, adding that a potential decline in house prices may also stretch margins for home builders. ‘While a drop in valuation of UK commercial assets of 10% to 20% or more would be detrimental to property companies, the robust fundamentals of the business model of real estate investment companies should limit any significant turbulence in operating performance, in our view, at least in the short to medium term,’ it points out. The climate could result in discounts being offered… Continue reading
