TSI
Prime London property market likely to be subdued until after election in May
The mood of buyers and vendors alike in the prime London residential market is likely to remain subdued up until after the general election in May, it is claimed. Uncertainty surrounding a potential mansion tax, interest rates and the introduction of capital gains tax liability for non-resident owners are also contributing to the general market angst, according to the 2015 market forecast report from Chestertons. Moreover, a tightening mortgage regulatory environment with the European Mortgage Credit Directive due for implementation by 2016 and the Basel III requirements by 2019 on top of recent new UK rules, may see lenders become more cautious, the firm believes. Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that even high net worth individuals are experiencing more difficulty in having their mortgage applications processed despite the fact that exemptions from MMR requirements were given to those with a net annual income of at least £300,000 or a net worth of at least £3 million. The report points out that the UK economy, although forecast to slow this year, is nonetheless expected to remain one of the best performing among developed countries. Indeed, the HM Treasury panel of independent forecasters currently projects GDP growth of 2.6% compared to an estimated out turn of 3% in 2014, although it expects unemployment to reduce further. The panel also forecasts inflation will creep up, although much depends on the price of crude oil and household expenditure. For the time being, the possibility of deflation remains real. It also points out that pricing is likely to become more sensitive in the shorter term following the revision of Stamp Duty and the potential introduction of a mansion tax, and as buyers sense that they have the upper hand in a softening market. ‘Nonetheless, there are pockets of the market which should be active in 2015. Foreign investment driven purchases should remain robust especially in the new build sector which remains buoyant in terms of both buyer demand and price growth,’ the report says. ‘The UK should enhance its attraction as a safe haven for flight capital from a troubled Eurozone and countries with historic ties with Britain who are experiencing geo-political unrest, such as Egypt, Nigeria and other parts of west Africa. Moreover, various surveys indicate that UK buy to let landlords are keen to expand their portfolios while the attraction of property as a pension supplement for households in or approaching retirement continues to grow in popularity as evidenced by the increase in buy to let mortgage lending last year,’ it explains. ‘As we suggested in our previous report, the outcome of the election could have a considerable impact on the prime London residential market. We expect values to remain flat or see further slight reduction in the run-up to the election,’ it points out. ‘Thereafter, if a Conservative Government or a Conservative led coalition is returned the firm anticipates a gradual uplift in values over the remainder of the year. Otherwise, any combination of Labour/Liberal… Continue reading
Asking prices already rising in some parts of the UK
Encouraged by last year's positive property market performance, sellers' asking prices are already rising quickly in London and the South East of England, according to the latest index report. Asking prices are up 0.8% overall in England in Wales in the last month. But the average annual growth fell to 7.1%. Prices are continuing to fall in the prime property market in London. The February asking price index from Home.co.uk also shows that price rises are on the up in East Anglia and the West Midlands and optimism also abounds post referendum in Scotland, where prices have jumped 1.9% in just one month. Not all regions, however, share the same upbeat sentiment. Prices are essentially static in the East Midlands, Wales and the North West, whilst in the North East, they dropped by 0.9% over the last month. Elsewhere, small price rises were observed in the West Midlands, Yorkshire and the South West at 0.7%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively. The typical time on market for England and Wales is now 125 days, which is 18 days less than this time last year and the data also shows that supply of property for sale nationwide shows a significant uptick. Some 19% more properties were placed on the market this January than in January 2014. Greater London leads the way with a 51% increase in supply, ahead of the South East with growth of 28%, Scotland up 19% and East Anglia up 18%. According to Doug Shephard the firm’s director, high prices are encouraging potential vendors to commit. ‘Although there are clear signs that supply is beginning to outpace demand in London, as indicated by a rising median time on the market. Londoners may be attempting to cash in, but further supply will only serve to ensure a deeper correction in prices in the capital,’ he said. He pointed out that this year rising supply will make its presence felt in London and the South East, thereby placing downward pressure on prices. ‘These regions are much further on in the economic cycle than the northern regions, where price recovery remains as yet elusive. It is conceivable that we will witness a reversal of fortunes in the latter half of 2015 or beginning of 2016, wherein prices fall in Greater London at the same time as they finally rise in the North, as investors target better value regional markets,’ he explained. He believes that the best prospects for growth this year probably lie in Middle England in regions such as East Anglia, East Midlands, the South West, West Midlands and perhaps Yorkshire. ‘It may be argued that these regions are still in the throes of the recovery phase, as supply remains low and prices have not yet risen too far,’ he said. The worst growth prospects are most likely to be in prime central London, where an abundance of unsold stock is whittling away at property values. ‘For the time being, the mmminvestment outlook for… Continue reading
Annual savings of £742 for those getting on the UK housing ladder
First time buyers in the UK are £742 or 9% a year better off with their own home compared to those who rent, according to new research by the Halifax. The average monthly buying cost, including mortgage payments, associated with a first time buyer buying a three bedroom house stood at £658 in December 2014, some £62 lower than the typical monthly rent of £720 paid on the same property type. With the price of a typical first time buyer home rising by 8% in 2014, the difference has narrowed from £80 or 12% to £62 since 2013 as the average monthly buying costs grew by £46 while average monthly rents increased by £28. However, at the same time, the number of first-time buyers increased by an estimated 22% in 2014, with 326,500 first time buyers getting on the ladder, the highest annual total since 2007 when it was 359,900. In 2014, first time buyers in London had, in cash terms, experienced the largest benefit from buying rather than renting a home. The average monthly cost of £1,275 for those who have bought compares to an average monthly rental price of £1,387, a saving of £112 a month or £1,338 over the year. The second largest difference is found in the North West where first time buyers were paying 17% less a month, £109 a month or £1,304 annually, than the typical private tenant in the region. The smallest differences between the monthly cost of buying and renting are in the East Midlands at £6 or 1%, and the South East at £15 or 2%. The research shows that the gap between cost of buying and renting still substantially higher than in 2009. Five years ago the average monthly cost of buying was £15 higher than the typical rent paid at £576 versus £561. Since 2009 the substantial improvement in the affordability of buying relative to renting largely reflects a 28% or £159 rise in average monthly rental costs over the past five years. This increase was twice as fast as the 14% or £83 rise in average monthly buying costs. ‘Average home buying costs are significantly lower than average rental costs, providing first-time buyers with a large financial saving if they can get on the housing ladder,’ said Craig McKinlay, Halifax mortgage director. ‘While the timescales associated with raising a sufficient deposit to buy a home present a hurdle to many potential first time buyers, the significant difference in costs between buying and renting, combined with still low mortgage rates, increased consumer confidence and the Help to Buy scheme, have all been factors driving the substantial rise in first-time buyers over the past two years,’ he added. Continue reading
