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UK annual house price growth slows for six month in a row
Annual house price growth in the UK slowed to 5.7% in February from 6.8% in January, the sixth month in a row that it has slowed, the latest index figures show. UK house prices fell by 0.1% in February, taking the average price to £187,964, according to the data from the Nationwide Building Society. According to Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, the broader economic backdrop has remained supportive of housing market activity. ‘Mortgage rates remain close to all-time lows and consumer confidence remains buoyant thanks to a further steady improvement in labour market conditions,’ he said. ‘Indeed, the unemployment rate has continued to decline and earnings growth has picked up, particularly in inflation adjusted terms, thanks in part to the sharp decline in energy prices,’ he added. But he pointed out that the pace of housing market activity remains fairly subdued. ‘There was a small increase in the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in December, up 2% from 59,000 in November to 60,300 in December, though it remains too early to determine whether this marks a turning point in activity,’ he concluded. The UK property market is undergoing a sustained reality check, according to Alex Gosling, chief executive officer of online estate agents House Simple. But he believes it is far too premature to suggest that the property market is running out of steam. ‘The strong jobs market, rising real wages and cheap credit are fuelling consumer confidence, and for many renters the home owning dream remains as attractive as ever. But the fillip provided by the Stamp Duty reforms announced late last year appears to be waning, and mortgage activity is fairly subdued,’ he explained. ‘Tightened lending criteria are forcing first time buyers to save much more and much longer before they can get a mortgage. The most recent English Housing Survey found that just 36% of 25 to 34 year olds own their home, compared to 59% a decade before,’ he pointed out. ‘Steady, not stellar, growth is likely to be the pattern for house prices in 2015. The double digit rises of 2014 are history,’ he added. Continue reading
Rate of home ownership in England at lowest level for 30 years
After rising almost continuously over the course of the twentieth century, the rate of home ownership in England has been declining steadily since 2003, the annual housing survey shows. The report published by the Department of Communities and Local Government shows that in 2013/2014 home ownership fell from 65.2% to 63.3% and is now at its lowest rate for almost 30 years. Indeed it is some 8% below the all-time high of 70.9% in 2003 and among owner occupiers, the proportion of people owning their home outright overtook the proportion owning with a mortgage in 2013/2014. The data reveals a sharp decline in the proportion of younger people owing their own home, particular those aged 25 to 34 who are traditionally first time buyers who are vital to the housing ladder. But the number of this group owning their own home fell from 59% in 2004 to just 36% in 2014. Over the same period, the proportion renting, either privately or through a local authority or housing association, increased from 41% to 64%. For 16 to 24 year olds, the proportion renting increased from 76% to 91%. The increase has occurred in the private rental sector, which currently houses 19% of total households in England, the highest share since the 1960s. Indeed, over the last decade the number of privately rented households has nearly doubled to 4.4 million, while the percentage of households in social rental properties has declined from 18% to 17%. The survey suggests that 25% of people in social housing and 61% of those in the private rental sector expect to be able to buy their own home in future. However, this remains a longer term aspiration, with around half of renters expecting it to take five years or more to take their first steps into the housing market. The survey lays bare the generational divide in housing with older households continuing to benefit from the growth in home ownership and accumulation of equity in the second half of the 20th century, with younger households suffering from a lack of access to home ownership in the 21st, according to Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills. ‘We urgently need a co-ordinated, long term response to the housing crisis rather than short term populist policies that only address a few of the symptoms. A new government will need to front up to the need to provide a bigger, better private rented sector and find ways to encourage the recycling of existing housing wealth so younger households can get on and trade up the housing ladder,’ he said. Savills forecasts that number of private rented households will continue to rise, while levels of owner occupation will continue to slide as higher interest rates, greater mortgage regulation and an acute housing shortage further reduce access to mortgaged home ownership. The firm estimates that by the end of 2019 there will be more… Continue reading
Demand sees US pending home sales reach highest level since August 2013
Improved buyer demand at the beginning of 2015 pushed pending home sales in the United States in January to their highest level since August 2013, according to the latest figures to be published. The data from the National Association of Realtors also shows that all major regions except for the Midwest saw gains in activity in January. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 1.7% to 104.2 in January from an upwardly revised 102.5 in December and is now 8.4% above January 2014, the fifth month of year on year gains with each month accelerating the previous month's gain. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that for the most part buyers in January were able to overcome tight supply to sign contracts at a pace that highlights the underlying demand that exists in today's market. ‘Contract activity is convincingly up compared to a year ago despite comparable inventory levels. The difference this year is the positive factors supporting stronger sales, such as slightly improving credit conditions, more jobs and slower price growth,’ he explained. Yun pointed out that there are now more favourable conditions for traditional buyers entering the market. All cash sales and sales to investors are both down from a year ago, creating less competition and some relief for buyers who still face the challenge of limited homes available for sale. ‘All indications point to modest sales gains as we head into the spring buying season. However, the pace will greatly depend on how much upward pressure the impact of low inventory will have on home prices. Appreciation anywhere near double digits isn't healthy or sustainable in the current economic environment,’ Yun added. The index in the Northeast increased by 0.1% to 84.9 in January, and is now 6.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 0.7% to 99.3 in January, but is 4.2% above January 2014. Pending home sales experienced the largest increase in the South, up 3.2% to an index of 121.9 in January, the highest since April 2010, and 9.7% above last January. The index in the West rose 2.2% in January to 96.4 and is 11.4% above a year ago. Total existing homes sales in 2015 are forecast to be around 5.26 million, an increase of 6.4% from 2014. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase around 5%. In 2014, existing home sales declined 2.9% and prices rose 5.7%. Continue reading
