TSI
Property prices still falling in London, but five year outlook suggests rise of 30%
Residential property prices are continuing to fall in London while Scotland and Northern Ireland outperform the rest of the UK, according to the latest monthly survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Some 28% of surveyors in London reported falling prices in February, the sixth monthly decline in a row. But RICS members are positive about the outlook for prices and believe that they will rise by 30% in the next five years. Values increased across the rest of the country due to the demand supply imbalance, the report shows. There was also price growth across the South West and the South East. The upward shift in prices is in part being driven by a decline in the number of houses coming onto the market in most parts of the UK and 8% more surveyors saw declines in new supply in February and new instructions have now fallen in six out of the last seven months. Price expectations over the next three months increased from a net balance of 3% to 10% and despite anecdotal evidence suggesting that political uncertainty may be leading to the election effect of vendors sitting on the fence, RICS member forecast for house price growth over the next 12 months stand at 2.4%, up from 1.8% in January. Notable exceptions to the trend however were London, the North of England and the East Midlands, which may indicate that political uncertainty may be weighing more heavily on specific markets, the report suggests. It points out that as supply dips, the national picture of demand appears to be stabilising after seven consecutive months in which the headline reading for new buyer enquiries was negative and a slightly more upbeat trend is also emerging in more parts of the country than previously was the case. In the lettings market, demand continues to rise, while instructions to let remained unchanged following 10 months of steady declines. This is being reflected in the medium term view for rents with respondents, on average, envisaging an increase of 2.6% over the coming year. ‘It is encouraging that that the negative trend in buyer enquiries appears to be dissipating, perhaps in part because of growing confidence that the cost of borrowing will stay lower for longer, but more worrying that instructions to sell property continue to drop,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘This very modest reversal in the demand picture is already being felt in the key measures of price expectations highlighting the extent of the challenge policy makers will face in addressing the housing crisis in the aftermath of the coming general election,’ he explained. ‘Even in London, where the key RICS indicators remain in negative territory, there is a strong view in the survey that property will become even more unaffordable over the medium term. Respondents suggests, on average, that house prices will rise by a further 30% in the capital over the next five years,’ he added. Continue reading
New tax burden for UK homes owned by company or partnership
New tax rules which come into force next month in the UK could leave some home owners with a bill of £7,000 if their property is partly or wholly owned by a company or partnership. The 2014 budget reduced the threshold for dwellings that fall within the Annual Tax for Enveloped Buildings (ATED), what used to be called the Annual Residential Property Tax, from £2 million to £1 million. The threshold will come down again in 2016 to £500,000 bringing thousands more properties throughout the UK into the tax bracket and forcing owners to submit an ATED return. Sue Crossley, from The Country House Company in Hampshire, which handles the sale and letting of high quality rural properties throughout the south, said many owners were unaware of the new tax burden. ‘This is going to be a shock for a lot of people. This change was tucked away in the small print of the 2014 budget but now it is actually coming true for a lot of people,’ she explained. Most residential properties are owned directly by individuals, but in some cases they may be owned by a company or a partnership with a corporate member. Then the dwelling is said to be ‘enveloped’ because the ownership sits within a corporate wrapper or envelope. Crossley pointed out that there are reliefs that could reduce the tax completely but they can only be claimed when a tax return is completed and sent in. There are also exemptions for charitable companies using the dwelling for charitable purposes. The returns are due by 01 October 2015 and payment by 31 October 2015. From April 2016, properties valued at greater than £500,000 but not more than £1 million will have an annual charge of £3,500. ‘Many people living in properties worth £1m who run businesses and use their property as an investment vehicle will find they have an extra bill to pay this year. That will have a direct impact on a significant number of people this year but many thousands more people will be affected next year when the threshold comes down again to £500,000. There are millions of people living in houses worth more than that,’ said Crossley. ‘I can see why the government has made this change. They have seen people in business use their property as a shield from some of their tax burden and the Exchequer has been looking for a way to claw some of this back. But the bill will still come as a shock to many who may not have been expecting it or may not have budgeted for it,’ she added. Continue reading
Spain’s commercial property market outlook improving
There are already signs that Spain’s residential property market is recovering and now a new report shows that its commercial markets are also growing. International real estate advisor Savills is predicting CBD office yields in Madrid will move from 5% to 4% and 4.5% for super prime properties, as a lack of good quality stock puts pressure on pricing. This follows strong investment volumes in Spain’s office market during 2014 in which €2.8 billion was transacted, triple the €990 million total in 2013. The firm states that in terms of location, 60% of investment was made in Madrid, 30% in Barcelona and the remaining 10% in other locations throughout the country. Savills reports that the growing amount of demand and the lack of supply continues to push achievable yields down in the CBD and the main business areas. Prime yields at the end of the year moved in 100 basis points, secondary areas 75 basis points and out of town locations saw a change of 50 basis points. ‘Investors preference for Spain’s more mature market of Madrid is undeniable, accounting for a total of €1.65 billion. But the lack of good quality stock is putting pressure on yields,’ said Luis Espadas, director of investment at Savills Spain. ‘The yield in the CBD stands at 5%, and for super prime properties could achieve between 4% and 4.5%,’ he added. The firm finds that SOCIMI, the Spanish equivalent of REIT’s, were very active in the office market, with 27% of their total capital being invested in commercial property and 76% of that total in offices. ‘Whilst the SOCIMI and domestic investors were very active in 2014 this year we predict we will see large Latin American investors capitalizing on opportunities in the Spanish office market,’ said Pablo Pavia, director of investment at Savills Spain. The Savills report also states that take up in the office market at the end of 2014 was 382,000 square meters, some 2.5% less than the previous year. However, 2013 take up was heavily distorted by the Vodafone letting of 50,000 square meters, and discounting that letting take-up grew 12% on the previous year. Additionally, it points out that there are a number of large space requirements currently in the market, several of which are seeking space exceeding 5,000 square meters. ‘Thanks to signs of a recovery in Spain some occupiers are more willing to sign pre-lease agreements on speculative space in the CBD which in term is prompting major market players to carry out speculative developments. The increase in take up activity will cause rents in the best properties to continue to rise through 2015,’ said Ana Zavala, director of office agency at Savills. According to Savills rents in the CBD are currently in excess of €25.50 per square meter and could reach €28 per square meter in 2015 given continued strong take up. The firm also predicts landlord will continue to undertake refurbishment projects in 2015, with three quarters of… Continue reading
