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UK house price optimism rebounds, latest index suggests
House price optimism in the UK rebounded in February as inflation continued to fall and the expectation of an interest rate rise receded further. According to the Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker report last month saw a rallying of house price optimism among consumers, from an 18 month low of +52 at the start of the year to +60 in February. It was +62 December 2014. This optimism is reflected in the outlook for both buyers and sellers, with buying sentiment up to its highest level since the Confidence Tracker launched in 2011 at net +35. At the same time selling sentiment has reached an all-time high and now stands at +27. However, this still this doesn’t tell the whole story as the underlying picture is a cautious one, with 57% predicting flat or modest house price increases of less than 5% at best over the next 12 months. And despite inflation falling to 0% in February and various MPC members saying the next interest rate move is as likely to be down as it is up, 43% of consumers believe mortgage interest rates will be higher than they are now in a year’s time. ‘With inflation now at its lowest level since records began and the chances of the next interest rates change reportedly just as likely to be down as up, consumers are feeling more optimistic about the housing market again,’ said Craig McKinlay, mortgages director at the Halifax. ‘The traditional slow start to the year for the housing market has already begun to give way to increased activity, but consumers remain relatively cautious. For sustainable long term growth we need a period of stable growth and a more comprehensive house building programme,’ he added. Continue reading
Higher taxes and election uncertainty put brakes on prime London house prices
Prices in the prime property market in London fell marginally in the first quarter of 2015, confirming concerns that higher taxes and pre-election qualms are affecting the sector. They were down 0.5% quarter on quarter and this follows an average 2.6% price adjustment in the final quarter of 2014, according to the latest research from international real estate adviser Savills. The firm says this was triggered by the stamp duty reform announced in December’s Autumn Statement and means that the 12 month rolling prime London average has slipped into negative territory. However, Savills research is forecasting that prices in the prime London market will rise by 23% over the next five years assuming no further taxation of high value property. The prime central London housing market has been most affected by increased stamp duty charges and values are down 1.1% on a quarterly basis and 4.3% year on year, a reflection of the fact that the more valuable markets have borne the brunt of increased stamp duty charges. By contrast, the markets of Islington, Wapping and Canary Wharf continue to show positive annual growth, despite an easing in values in the past six months. Year on year the north west prime market is up 1.8% but down 0.6% quarter on quarter. North London is up 6.2% year on year and down 0.8% quarter on quarter. The data also shows that the East of City prime market has seen prices rise 4% on an annual basis but down 1.5% quarter on quarter while in the south west prime market prices are down 2.6% year on year and down 0.2% quarter on quarter. But over the longer term prices in the prime sector have seen considerable growth. Over the last five years prices in central London are up 30.8%, in north west London up 30.7%, in south west London up 38.1%, in north London up 45.6% and in east of City up 41.6%. Overall the prime market has seen growth of 36.6% over five years. Since the peak of the market prices in price central London are up 33.6%, in north west London up 28.4%, in south west London up 33.7%, in north London up 42.3% and in east of City up 33.6%, taking the growth for the whole of London to 34.3%. ‘As we forecast in November, uncertainty regarding the general election and the potential for further taxation of high value property have contributed to a subdued market in the first part of 2015,’ said Lucian Cook, head of UK residential research at Savills. ‘The stamp duty changes came after five and a half years of sustained price growth for prime London property. This segment of the market is now looking fully taxed and sellers are having to factor in price adjustments equivalent to the stamp duty increase,’ he explained. The analysis also shows that by contrast, the softening in… Continue reading
Irish property prices fall for second month in a row
Residential property prices in Ireland fell by 0.4% in February, the second monthly decline in a row, the latest index data shows. The fall last month comes on the back of a 1.4% decline in January amid concerns that the country’s real estate recovery could be stalling. In Dublin, the decline was more pronounced, with average prices falling by 0.7%, according to the data from the Central Statistics Office. However, despite this fall, residential property prices remained up 14.9% on an annual basis. In Dublin property prices were still 21.4% higher than in February 2014. A breakdown of the figures shows that Dublin house prices fell by 1% in February whilst Dublin apartment prices increased by 2%. However, a spokesman said that it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. In the rest of Ireland residential property prices were unchanged in February. However, prices were still up 8.2% compared with February 2014. At national level residential property prices were 38.7% lower than their peak level in 2007. Dublin house prices were 37.6% lower than their peak, Dublin apartment prices were 43.3% lower than their peak and Dublin residential property prices overall were 39.3% lower than their highest level. Outside of Dublin residential property prices were 41.9% lower than their highest level in 2007. ‘With prices continuing to rise more quickly than earnings affordability constraints are beginning to have an impact. This has removed some of the heat that was evident in the market in the middle of last year,’ said John McCartney of Savills. ‘Agents are now reporting that buyers are no longer in a frenzy to buy for fear that prices will run beyond their means. This is a very positive development as expectations of rapid price growth can become self-fulfilling and can quickly lead to overheating,’ he added. It is a welcome slowdown in Irish house price inflation rather than a collapse in prices, according to Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers, who said at over five times average incomes, house prices no longer look cheap. ‘This slowdown is not surprising or undesirable. Ideally, Irish house prices will now rise in line with nominal wages so affordability is not stretched further,’ he explained, adding that it was too early to say what kind of dampening effect new central bank restrictions on mortgage lending will have. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), an independent think-tank partly funded by the Irish government, said that while the measures may slow down house price growth, this could come at the expense of rising rents and fewer houses being supplied amid major shortages of supply in Dublin. Continue reading
