TSI
Growing disconnect between perception and reality for UK first time buyers, report suggests
The number of people buying their own home in the UK for the first time increased in 2014 but there is a growing disconnect between reality and perception of the market, new research suggests. According to the latest generation report from the Halifax improving economic conditions together with high profile government schemes such as Help to Buy, saw the highest amount of first time buyers purchase their first home for seven years. From a peak in 2006 of 402,800 first time buyers, numbers fell as low as 192,300 in 2008 before climbing back to 311,500 in 2014. Despite this the annual generation report found relatively little improvement in how potential first time buyers view their chances of getting on the housing ladder. The research also shows that 79% of 20 to 45 year olds believe banks don't want to lend to first time buyers, and 21% believe it is virtually impossible for first time buyers to obtain a mortgage. The Halifax says that there is clearly some work to do to dispel the myth that banks are averse to lending to first time buyers. And the proportion of people saving for a deposit has dropped 6% with some 43% currently saving to buy a property compared to 57% who are not. The lender says that this strengthens the view that more people may be giving up on owning their own home and are instead accepting renting as a viable way of living in a nice home, in an area they want to live in and in the right size of property. The Halifax also highlights the emergence of a new demographic split between those who want to get on the housing ladder and those who say they don’t at 13% in 2011 compared to 16% in 2015. The presumption that the UK is obsessed with home ownership may need revaluating and a lower level of home ownership may become the new normal, it adds. The research also shows that 53% think the Help to Buy scheme has had a positive impact, but 39% don’t know or are undecided and the three most cited barriers to home ownership among those who do not own a property are the size of the deposit for 57%, high property prices for 56% and low income for 53%. London has the lowest proportion of home owners aged 20 to 45 or 39% and the highest number of people in this age range who worry they will never own a home at 82% while non home owners are currently prepared to save for average of 5.35 years in order to save for a deposit whereas homeowners saved for an average of 3.6 years. The average amount that non home owners can afford to save each week is now £33.35 and 39% of 20 of 45 year olds are saving to buy two bed properties, split between flats and houses at 18% and 22% respectively. ‘This year’s report has… Continue reading
Demand for homes in central London property market picks up
Buyer demand in the residential real estate market in central London picked up during the early months of 2015, according to a new report. The market is still busy below £1 million but has quietened between £1.5 million and £5 million as Stamp Duty changes and the possibility of a mansion tax take their toll, says the analysis from real estate firm JLL. However, underlying demand is still strong and the fundamentals remain the same and an excess of demand over available supply, which continues to support the market. The report also points out that development activity continues to rise with 26,500 units now under construction, a 23% increase during the second half of last year and a 41% rise throughout the course of 2014. The majority of units underway are in outer core locations where there was a 34% increase in the second half of last year with core markets seeing a more modest increment of 8%. The number of units starts during the second half of last year, at 8,700, was a 45% increase compared with the first half of 2014. According to JLL although the general election is now just a month away it has been impacting the central London sales market since 2014. For example, Labour's mansion tax proposal is affecting the market above £1.5 million as people adopt a wait and see attitude. ‘The general election does not seem to have deterred London's developers. The number of units underway has increased significantly over the past couple of years and the election is not halting this,’ said Neil Chegwidden, director in the residential research team at JLL. ‘It is also interesting to see that London's developers believe that the outcome of the general election is more important to their businesses than the Mayoral election next year. So it is good news that new supply is on the rise, but we continue to fall short of London's targets and it will be intriguing to see what impact a new government might have on this vital issue,’ he added. The report also looks at the legacy of the 2012 Olympic Games on the east of London and says that 10 years on from the successful bid the East Village already has its first residents and construction is underway at Chobham Manor, one of five neighbourhoods within the Park. It also says that this part of London has a wealth of development and regeneration potential that reaches far beyond the sphere of influence of the Olympic Park and the raised profile of the area is encouraging developers to bring schemes to the market. Construction levels have escalated in recent years. At the end of 2013 there were just 2,900 private residential units under construction, now there are 6,600, a 125% increase. A quarter of all new residential units under construction are in East London led by the 6,800 units at Queen Elizabeth Park and the close to 6,500 units at Stratford City… Continue reading
US pending home sales reach highest level since June 2013
Pending home sales in the United States in February increased to their highest level since June 2013, according to the latest figures from the National Association of Realtors. Sizeable gains in the Midwest and West offset smaller declines in the Northeast and South and overall demand is increasing as the residential real estate market moves into the spring buying seasons. The NAR pending homes sales index, which is a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.1% to 106.9 in February from a slight downward revision of 103.7 in January and is now 12% above February 2014. Indeed, the index is at its highest level since June 2013 when it was 109.4, and has increased year on year for six consecutive months and. It is also above 100, considered an average level of activity, for the tenth consecutive month. ‘Pending sales showed solid gains last month, driven by a steadily improving labour market, mortgage rates hovering around 4% and the likelihood of more renters looking to hedge against increasing rents,’ said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. ‘These factors bode well for the prospect of an uptick in sales in coming months. However, the underlying obstacle, especially for first time buyers, continues to be the depressed level of homes available for sale,’ he added. According to NAR’s monthly confidence index the percent share of first time buyers increased slightly for the first time in February since November 2014, up to 29% from 28% in January. ‘Several markets remain highly-competitive due to supply pressures, and real estate agents are reporting severe shortages of move-in ready and available properties in lower price ranges. The return of first time buyers this year will depend on how quickly inventory shows up in the market,’ Yun explained. The PHSI in the Northeast fell 2.3% in February, but is 4.1% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index leaped 11.6% and is now 13.8% above February 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.4% but is still 10.8% above last February. The index in the West climbed 6.6%, the highest since June 2013, and is now 18.3% above a year ago. Total existing homes sales in 2015 are forecast to be around 5.25 million, an increase of 6.4% from 2014. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase around 5.6%. In 2014 existing home sales declined 2.9% and prices rose 5.7%. Continue reading
