TSI
British prime farm land values continue to rise, but at a much slower pace
Prime farm land values in Great Britain increased by 0.5% to £9,900 per acre, much slower than previous quarters in recent years, the latest available data shows. According to the Farmland Value Survey from Savills it suggests that the ‘bull run’, driven by the top end of the market, in average capital value growth is slowing. In the first quarter of 2014 and 2013 the corresponding figures were 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. Quarter one growth was principally concentrated in the southern regions of England and in the East Midlands, where quality farms and estates dominated the market. Average prime arable farmland growth in these regions was 0.4% in the South East, 3.5% in the South West and 0.6% in the East Midlands. All other regions recorded zero growth and the data also shows that values continue to be highest in the East of the country. It points out that average values continue to mask the diversity in the market with sales at values in excess of £15,000 per acre being achieved for the right farms. ‘This end of the market continues to be driven by quality and location with large commercial arable farms and high quality estates attracting the strongest demand,’ the report says. ‘The trend of limited supply continues and, whilst remaining historically low, shows a slight increase on the first quarter of 2014. Supply remains at close to the lowest levels ever recorded, similar to 2001 during the foot-and-mouth outbreak and 2004 during the run-up to the introduction of the Single Farm Payment Scheme,’ the Savills report explains. It also points out that the lack of clarity surrounding the potential outcome of the general election coupled with pressure on farm incomes is creating some uncertainty. Overall just over 15,250 acres of farmland were publicly marketed across Great Britain during the first quarter of 2015, a 9% rise, amounting to 1,320 acres, on the same period of 2014. In the first quarter of this year the increased activity was concentrated in England with 26% whilst the levels of supply continued to fall in Scotland by 10% and Wales by 53%. Across England there were some significant regional differences during the quarter. Large increases in supply were recorded in the East Midlands at 280% and the South East of England at 362%. In the South East of England activity was boosted by two large properties in Hampshire at 1,600 and 1,000 acres. In contrast, decreases in the supply of farmland were recorded in the East of England with a fall of 30%, the North of England down 37% and also in the South West of England with a fall of 11%. Although activity in the South East of England was dominated by two large farms the market in the first quarter predominantly consisted of a larger number of smaller farms suggesting that pressure on incomes and cash flows may be having some effect Savills does not expect a significant change in the overall levels in the… Continue reading
UK house prices up 1% in April, according to latest index
Annual house price growth in the UK edged up to 5.2% in April from 5.1% in March, according to the latest index from the Nationwide building society. The data from the leading lender also shows that house prices rose by 1% in April, taking the average price of a home to £193,048. This is the largest monthly increase since June 2014 and as a result the annual pace of house price growth increased for the first time in seven months, Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner pointed out. He explained that the pick-up in price growth has occurred even though the pace of activity in the housing market has remained fairly subdued in recent months. ‘Indeed, the number of mortgage approvals is still well below its long run average and 20% below the levels recorded in early 2014. The strength of the economy and relatively subdued pace of activity in the housing market remains something of an anomaly,’ said Gardner. ‘It is possible that heightened uncertainty ahead of the election is weighing on activity, though there is no compelling evidence from previous UK elections to suggest a strong impact. Healthy labour market conditions and continued low mortgage rates should help underpin housing demand in the quarters ahead,’ he added. The Nationwide has also been looking at how the UK housing market compares to the rest of the European Union. ‘The UK is often characterised as a nation of home owners, though compared with our European neighbours, the proportion of the population owning their own home is not particularly high. In fact, it is actually towards the lower end of the range,’ Gardner said. He pointed out that although some other European nations have seen declines in their home ownership rates in recent years, the movement in the UK has been more pronounced. ‘That said, even at its all-time high of 73% in 2007, the UK home ownership rate was not particularly high by EU standards,’ he explained. ‘Since then, there has been significant growth in the private rental sector. Interestingly, while the UK home ownership rate may not be particularly high, the propensity for young adults aged 18 to 34) to live with their parents is relatively low, a trend which has become more pronounced over the past five years,’ he added. Continue reading
US rents starting to outpace house price growth, new analysis shows
Residential rents in the United States are continuing to rise, up 3.7% year on year to $1,362 a month and keeping pace with house price growth of 3.9% over the same period. The latest data from real estate firm Zillow shows that in 17 of the nation’s 35 largest metro areas, annual rental growth exceeded annual house price growth in March. This is in line with expectations as the firm predicted at the end of 2014 that annual rent growth would outpace house price growth by the end of 2015. It now says this will happen well before the end of the year. But while overall home values in the nation as a whole may still be growing more quickly than rents, in many large metro areas, rental growth has surged ahead over the past year. Of the 17 metro areas where rents are growing more quickly than home values, the biggest differences are in San Francisco with rents up 14.8% year on year and home values up 9.6%. While in Kansas City rents are up 8.6% and price up 4%, and Pittsburgh it is 6.3% and 4.3% respectively. March represents the first month in two years in which annual home value growth was less than 4%. For 24 months, home owners have watched their homes appreciate at a pace well above historic norms at around 3% annually. According to Zillow rising rents themselves are a double edged sword for the purchase market. As current tenants see more and more of their income going to landlords that keep raising the rent, many are likely to opt for the relative stability of homeownership. And home ownership, in addition to offering stable payments over many years, is also an incredible bargain right now. Current US renters making the median national income can expect to pay about 30% of their income to afford the median US rental property, up from about 25% historically. Buyers, on the other hand, thanks to very low mortgage interest rates and home values that, for most local markets, remain below their pre-recession peaks and should expect to pay only 15% of their income on a mortgage, down from about 22% historically. The Zillow analysis also points out that homes to buy remain scarce, and those homes being built are often focused at the high end, and not at current renters that are likely looking to buy more entry level homes. Continue reading
