TSI
New analysis reveals severe home planning shortfall in England
The property planning shortfall in England could grow to 180,000 over the course of the next parliament unless local authorities work together, it is claimed. The planning system is not delivering housing where need and market demand is greatest, according to a new analysis from real estate firm Savills. Its shows that the number of homes planned by local authorities in England is likely to result in a shortfall of around 36,000 homes a year, unless local planning authorities take greater account of housing need both within and beyond their boundaries. ‘Failure to cooperate on housing requirements across local authority boundaries is likely to result in an accumulated planning shortfall of 180,000 homes over the next five years. This is before we consider what house builders and other developers can deliver relative to these targets,’ the report points out. Figures shows that last year building starts reached 136,000 in England. However, according to analysis undertaken on behalf of the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA), at least 240,000 new homes a year in England are needed from now to 2031. The greatest requirement is in London and the South East where the property market has been strongest. However, the Savills analysis shows that these are the areas where the deficiency in the number of homes being planned is likely to be the greatest. Housing targets adopted so far are 80% of the corresponding Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) figures across the country. ‘A continuation of this trend would result in a shortfall of 26,000 homes a year in the south and east of England, including London. This figure equates to 74% of total housing shortfall for the whole of England,’ the report says. Of a total 114 local authorities in the south and east of England, 31 or 27% have neither an adopted local plan nor a recent SHMA published since the National Policy Planning Framework (NPPF) was introduced in 2012, the report points out. Yet these local authorities currently accommodate a quarter of all existing households in the region and will face pressure to meet the requirements for housing emerging from London and surrounding local authorities,’ it adds. The 31 local authorities without post-NPPF local plans include Sevenoaks, Elmbridge and Epping Forest. These are strong housing markets where over 50% of the authority is designated as green belt. Shortfalls are less pronounced in the North, Midlands and west of England. Assuming targets adopted by the local authorities that still lack a post-NPPF plan are 80% of their SHMA, the annual planning shortfall could amount to 7,349 homes in the Midlands and west of England and 2,038 in the North. Despite the increase in planning permissions towards 200,000 homes per year in England last year, 20,000 were granted through appeal. A closer analysis reveals persistent problems in maintaining an adequate supply of land for housing and that this problem is most notable where the level of housing need is greatest. Continue reading
Shortage of property for sale keeping UK prices high, latest index data suggests
House prices in UK in the three months to April were 2.2% higher than in the preceding three months, according to the latest data from the Halifax. This particular measure of the underlying rate of house price growth fell for the first time in 2015 following three successive rises. But house prices increased by 1.6% between March and April. In contrast, annual house price growth increased slightly, from 8.1% in March to 8.5% but, nonetheless, the annual rate remains in the narrow range of 8% to 9% where it has been since the start of 2015 and is below last July’s peak of 10.2%. ‘Housing demand is being supported by a number of factors including economic improvement, rising employment and low mortgage rates. At the same time, supply remains very tight with a general shortage of properties available for sale,’ said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis. ‘This combination has kept house price inflation steady in recent months with prices increasing by 2.2% to 2.6% on a quarterly basis and at an annual rate of 8% to 9%,’ he added. He pointed out that house prices are continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings despite the return to real earnings growth over the past few months. ‘The resulting rise in the level of house prices in relation to earnings should constrain house price growth and activity over the remainder of the year,’ he said. Ellis is predicting that the annual rate of house price growth is forecast to end the year at somewhere between 3% and 5%. The Halifax report points out that home sales were unchanged in March at 101,000 and were also static between the final three months of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, but were 6% lower than in the first three months of 2014. Mortgage approvals have risen on a quarterly basis. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales, fell slightly in March following three consecutive rises. Nonetheless, approvals during the first quarter of 2015 were 2.8% higher than in the final quarter of 2014. Supply remains tight. New instructions fell in March continuing the recent downward trend with declines in seven of the past eight months. This fall in instructions has contributed to the supply of homes on the market remaining low. Continue reading
Election result hailed as positive for UK commercial property markets
The UK general election result should be positive for the country’s commercial property markets but the landslide in favour of the SNP in Scotland could result in uncertainty north of the border, according to experts. If the SNP push for another referendum on independence then uncertainty could creep into the markets north of the border, it is suggested. And a referendum on the UK’s position within the European Union could add to that. ‘There is good reason to now suppose the UK economy, that appeared to slow in the run-up to the election, can now resume a strengthening recovery. This will be good news for both the commercial leasing and investment markets,’ said James Roberts, chief economist of real estate firm Knight Frank. He believes there remains a great deal of political uncertainty that will influence but not derail the property market. ‘Firstly, the SNP’s overwhelming victory has put the existence of the Union back on the political agenda. Last year there was a brief slowdown in activity in the Scottish market in the run-up to the referendum, which may be replicated in a future poll. This comes with the caveat that some investors actually saw last year’s referendum as an opportunity to buy,’ he explained. ‘Secondly, a Conservative majority increases the chances of a referendum on European Union membership. If the prospect of Scottish independence caused a market slowdown, the idea of the UK leaving the EU will surely do the same, probably on a greater scale. Either a Tory backbench rebellion against the Bill or a vote sooner rather than later may be the best outcome,’ he pointed out. ‘Thirdly, the UK’s deficit remains large. If the financial markets suspect that not enough is being done to balance the books, sterling could fall in value. This will initially make UK commercial property look attractive to overseas money, but inflationary pressures would increase and bring closer the day that interest rates rise,’ he added. Over the next five years, the firm believes that this climate of political uncertainty will at times cause market confidence to drain away temporarily. ‘Some investors may decide to wait until after an upcoming referendum before buying; some occupiers might shelve expansion plans because a sudden fall or rise in sterling hits profits,’ said Roberts. ‘In short, we should expect the odd air pocket ahead, but overall the election outcome was probably much better for commercial property than one would have expected,’ he concluded. Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE, also pointed out that the overall economic outlook remains favourable for markets. ‘Strong employment, low inflation, low interest rates and high levels of inward investment all bode well for the property sector,’ he said. But he believes that there remains, however, a question mark over EU membership, something ‘which bothers most of our clients immensely as they feel investment would suffer if we were to leave the EU’. The firm believes… Continue reading
