TSI
UK property sales down month on month and on an annual basis
UK residential property sales fell by 3.4% between March and April and were 5.6% lower compared to the same period last year, the latest published figures show. The provisional seasonally adjusted UK property transaction count for April 2015 was 97,020 residential and 9,910 non-residential transactions, according to the official data from HMRC. Adrian Gill, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents, believes it can be put down to uncertainty in the run up to the UK general election at the beginning of May. ‘Only a few weeks ago, the outcome of this general election was a mystery and buyers were sitting on the fence to watch the spectacle unfold. Sales were stalling, and house price growth was also braking in many places across the country,’ he said. ‘Now, confidence is soaring and the prospects for the property market look rosy. Any ground lost before the vote will be made up by the ensuing sudden sprint, as demand now picks up the pace off the back of less stamp duty, competitive mortgage rates, and support schemes like the Help to Buy ISA,’ he explained. ‘This new unbridled momentum looks set to carry the market forwards for the remainder of the year, but now the election rhetoric has died down, the new government needs to get to the heart of the housing market’s remaining obstacle, a fundamental lack of available homes,’ he added/ Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, agrees. ‘Political anxiety clearly stalled housing market activity momentarily. Not many would have predicted an outright majority government, but the conclusive election result has launched a rocket of confidence in the property market, with buyers and sellers able to act with certainty again,’ he said. ‘The market above £2 million, which is already starting to digest the new higher stamp duty costs, is now free from the fear of an unfriendly mansion tax that would have encroached across much of the capital,’ he pointed out. ‘With the election done and dusted, we expect to see the market really awaken to the opportunities that are on offer with buyers acting quickly to take advantage of more available stock, better mortgage rates, lower stamp duty for those buying under £937,000 and Help to Buy schemes,’ he added. Continue reading
Real estate agents report an increased confidence in Spanish property market
There is a renewed confidence in the Spanish property market with both Spanish and English speaking agents recording an increase in overseas buyers. The latest Spanish property market confidence index from Kyero covering the first quarter of 2015 says that overall 71% of real estate agents feel more confident than they did a year ago and just 4% less confident. The survey also reveals that 30% of English speaking agents see stronger Sterling as being responsible for the most significant shift in the Spanish property market while Spanish agents believe that increased marketing is boosting sales. Some 56% of Spanish speaking agents and 57% of English speaking agents said that sales have increased, 34% and 31% said sales were static and 10% and 12% said sales had fallen. But there was a considerable difference of opinion regarding property prices. Some 49% of English speaking agents said prices have increased, but just 18% of Spanish speaking agents agreed. Indeed, 57% of Spanish agents said prices had remained the same compared to 34% of English speaking agents. A quarter, 25% of Spanish speaking agents said prices had fallen, and 17% of English speaking agents. Both Spanish speaking and English speaking agents reported a rise in buyers from overseas, at 59% and 64% respectively. Some 38% of Spanish speaking agents and 28% of English speaking agents said there was no change while 4% and 8% said there were fewer international buyers. Almeria, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria and Murcia are highlighted as inspiring the most confidence, according to the index which surveyed 160 English speaking and 216 Spanish speaking estate agents across Spain. Martin Dell, director of Kyero, said that while the strength of Sterling has played a key role for English speaking agents who have used it to boost interest, Spanish speaking agents have taken a different approach. ‘While English speaking agents in Spain have been able to enjoy more confidence in the market thanks to the pound’s movements, their Spanish peers have been working flat out on their marketing activity in order to achieve the same goal,’ he explained. However, both sets of respondents reported similar figures when it came to buyer confidence, with 20% of English speaking agents feeling that improved buyer confidence had been the most significant change over the past 12 months, compared with 21% of Spanish speaking agents. Continue reading
Prime central London annual price growth at lowest since 2009
Annual price growth in prime central London fell to 2.8% in April, the lowest rate since November 2009 and is unlikely to change much this year, according to a new market analysis. Growth has been on a downwards trajectory in recent months ahead of the general election, but the Conservative Party victory suggests April is likely to mark the low point in the cycle, says the analysis report from Knight Frank. According to Tom Bill, head of London residential research at the firm, the principal effect on the prime London property market is that the election result has removed the prospect of a mansion tax on properties worth more than £2 million. ‘We believe this will lift transaction levels but the extent of any short term boost to prices is less clear cut. It will also be significant to note to what degree the opposition Labour Party moderates its policies around wealth creation and taxation and whether this reduces the rhetoric of the wider economic debate,’ said Bill. He believes that following the Conservative Party general election victory, several short term outcomes are likely. ‘First, numerous transactions put on hold pending the outcome of the vote will proceed as the risk of further property taxation appears less of an immediate threat. Other sales will progress simply because the election is over and a deeper sense of political uncertainty has receded,’ he explained. ‘As the logjam unblocks, it is likely to be accompanied by a hardening of expectations on the part of vendors over asking prices and some will expect prices to immediately rise as a direct consequence of the election result,’ said Bill. ‘In the short term, the impact on pricing is likely to be less marked than some expect due to the quantity of properties coming onto the market. Many vendors lined up sales for Monday 11 May, irrespective of the outcome of the election. Also this short term increase in supply is likely to exceed any uptick in demand. Activity in the prime London market has dampened in recent months as buyers and sellers factor in political risks but also as they digest measures like the stamp duty increase,’ he explained. ‘The market is in the final stages of absorbing these changes, meaning some buyers will still proceed with care. Furthermore, some prospective buyers will have signed rental contracts as they hedged their bets on the outcome of the election, meaning they are unable to act for several months,’ he added. Bill also pointed out that there is likely to be a short delay before a supply/demand equilibrium returns and a likely ‘expectation gap’ between asking prices and the prices that new and newly active buyers are prepared to pay. ‘However, price growth is likely to return more quickly in markets that have underperformed the prime central London average, including areas in Kensington and Chelsea where there has been low single digit annual growth in recent years,’ he said. Bill explained… Continue reading
