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UK house price expectations remains positive, latest index suggests
House price expectations in the UK remain positive, but signs of a post-election bounce are largely confined to London, according to the latest property sentiment index. Some 20.2% of the 1,500 households surveyed across the UK for the Knight Frank and Markit Economics house price sentiment index said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 4.1% reported a fall. This gave the HPSI a reading of 58, the twenty-sixth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. But it was a slight decrease on last month’s reading of 58.2, indicating that households may have factored in the uncertainty caused by the general election to perceived price growth. ‘There is little evidence yet of an election bounce in house price expectations, reflecting current market conditions. Activity is certainly picking up following the election of a majority government, and the certainty this has provided in the housing market,’ said Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. Demand is rising, but an increasing number of vendors are putting their homes on the market, and this is set to create more balance in terms of pricing. Londoners expectations for future price rises reached their highest level since November last year, perhaps reflecting the increased certainty in the outlook for property taxes in the capital,’ she added. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, fell in May to 70, slightly down from 70.2 in April. In spite of the monthly decline, the proportion of households expecting prices to fall over the next 12 months at 5.2% was the lowest ever recorded since the survey began in 2009. Meanwhile, 45.1% anticipate a rise in the value of their property and 49.7% forecast no change over the year ahead. Households in the East of England at 77.8 were most confident about price rises, followed by those in London at 77.7 and the South East at 73.5. The data also shows that some 6.4% of UK households said they planned to buy a property in the next 12 months, down from 6.5% a year previously. On a regional basis, nearly one in 10 households in the North East is planning a purchase in the next 12 months, followed by those living in London where 8.4% of households said they would be buying a property in 2015. ‘May’s survey highlights positive house price expectations across the UK, although households are still much less bullish than was seen at the post-recession peak exactly one year ago,’ said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit. ‘Tighter lending criteria and stretched affordability continue to restrain house price sentiment, while improving labour market conditions and continued low mortgage rates remain two key drivers of positive property price trends,’ he explained. ‘The most likely area of the property market to experience an appreciable post-election bounce is the house building sector, as decision making should reaccelerate after several months… Continue reading
House building in England has more than doubled since 2009
New housing starts in England have more than doubled since 2009 and are at their highest level since 2007 while the number of completed homes is at a six year high. The latest figures from the UK government shows that both starts and completions increased over the past year and in the 12 months to March 2015 work started on 140,500 homes, a rise of 5% on the previous year. The data from the Department of Communities and Local Government also show that in the first three months of the year house building starts were up31% compared to the previous quarter and up 11% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Completions were 10% higher than the previous quarter and up 21% on the same quarter a year earlier. The numbers of homes completed has also risen sharply, to their highest levels for nearly six years. ‘House building is at the heart of our plan to ensure the recovery reaches all parts of our country. We’re turning around an industry that was devastated and getting the country building again,’ said Housing Minister Brandon Lewis. ‘These figures show these efforts are reaping results, with house building starts having more than doubled since 2009, and completions at their highest for nearly six years. It is vital we maintain this momentum, getting workers back on sites and homes built, giving more people the chance to own their own home,’ he added. The data also shows that the growth in house building is across the country. For example in Barnet housing starts increased by 63% over the year, by 84% in Manchester and by 120% in Winchester. Continue reading
Pre-election jitters saw UK asking prices fall by 0.1% in May
There was an unseasonal drop in new seller asking prices in the UK in May, down by 0.1%, and the first fall in the month of May for five years, the latest index shows. This means that the average price of a home fell to £285,891 but prices are still up 2.5% compared to a year ago, although this annual rise is down from 4.7% in April, according to the latest date from Rightmove. The firm suggests that some sellers coming to market were forced to price more aggressively due to buyer uncertainty over the general election outcome so the fall was very much a short term one and asking prices are expected to bounce back again. ‘The unexpected outcome of a majority government has released the brakes on buyer confidence and activity, and will exert some upwards price pressure in the coming months,’ said Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst. He explained that the new government faces the long term challenge of delivering on an election promise to build 275,000 new affordable homes in the term of the current parliament. And he pointed out that the current shortage of suitable property for sale, meant that even the election uncertainty only caused prices to drop in three out of the 10 regions, London, which would have been hit hardest by mansion tax, the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. He also warned that sellers who think they have the upper hand due to the lack of property for sale should be aware that a surge of new competition could be on the way, giving buyers some extra negotiating power. In the three months after the May 2010 election there was a 17% jump in the number of properties coming to market compared to the previous quarter. With a majority government in power and record spring traffic on Rightmove, early indications from estate agents suggest that the next quarter could see another surge in property coming to market. ‘Buyers should note that there is often a surge of property supply after an election, as those who have held off coming to market decide to take the plunge. Many potential sellers may have held back expecting a period of hung parliament uncertainty, but they could now decide to catch the late spring market,’ said Shipside. ‘ In a traditional tight stock market an increase in supply of available property and greater competition among sellers to attract buyers may moderate their price expectations and make them more open to an offer,’ he explained. ‘The previous election saw jumps in new seller numbers in all regions of the country, with London and Wales leading the way with over 20% more properties coming to market. There may be a window for buyers to act now in this late spring market before prices rise in the next few months,’ he added. Continue reading
