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UK govt revises its medium term house price growth forecast downward
The UK government thinks house prices will grow sat a slower rate than previously expected in the medium term, mainly due to changes in lending. The latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reveal that overall, house prices are expected to rise by 34.1% by the first quarter of 2021 with the outlook revised from the last guidance which was issued in March. The OBR cites changes to the regulatory environment as well as changes to lenders’ behaviour brought about by the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) which came into play in April 2014 as reasons for the revision. As a result, the estimated cumulative level of house price growth by the first quarter of 2020 is 5% lower than it was in the March forecast so the growth prediction is now 34.1% by the first quarter of 2021. The OBR has also revised its forecasts for Stamp Duty revenue which is now forecast to raise £11.5 billion in 2015/2016, rising to £17.3 billion in 2019/2020 compared with the March forecast of £10.4 billion £18 billion respectively. So, compared with its March forecast, SDLT receipts are expected to be £1.1 billion higher in 2015/2016 but £0.7 billion lower by 2019/2020. The OBR said it has changed its short term forecast for stamp duty receipts because residential property transactions were higher than expected at the end of the 2014/2015 financial year, a trend it expects will continue. In the long term, lower house prices relative to the March forecast reduce receipts by around £1.2 billion in 2019/2020. Meanwhile, the selling market is expected to be busier this summer. Traditionally the prime months for selling houses were March through to the end of June with a second period of activity in September and October. These two seasons reflected the end of spring and school summer holidays. However, according to real estate firm Knight Frank there has been a change in recent years, with the market continuing through the usually quieter summer months. The number of properties sold by Knight Frank between June and August 2014 was in fact 25% higher than in 2013. ‘The increase in summer activity is a reflection on a number of factors including the popularity of holidays being taken in the UK and thus being able to see a house more quickly and the rise of the internet allowing holiday makers to browse their tablets and phones whilst relaxing,’ said Rupert Sweeting, head of Knight Frank Country. ‘We are seeing this happen again this year principally as the election made many buyers put their decisions on hold until after the result was known. As a result the market is six to eight weeks late. We already have a high level of house bookings going forward this month and in August,’ he added. Continue reading
Home approvals strengthen in Australia but new home sales fall
New home approvals in Australia strengthened during May and remain at high levels, up 2.4% compared to the previous month, the latest data shows. Multi-unit approvals soared 15.1% but detached house approvals fell by 8.5% with a total of 218,442 approvals recorded in the year to May, a new record for approvals over any 12 month period since records began in 1983. ‘While it is positive to see improved levels of approvals, the distribution of growth was uneven with multi units increasing significantly during the month and detached house approvals falling back,’ said Shane Garrett, the Housing Industry Association’s senior economist. He pointed out that during 2014, new home building reached an all-time high and the latest figures suggest a solid pipeline of new home building during the second half of 2015. ‘However, the recent strengthening of price pressures in several markets indicates that the supply of new homes will need to stay at elevated levels in order to fully address demand,’ he warned. ‘This onus is very much on policymakers here. They must rectify the bottlenecks in the planning system, redress the excessive fees and charges on new residential developments and ensure that the pipeline of residential land will meet the ongoing community demand for new homes,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows that approvals saw the strongest increase in Victoria with growth of 11%, followed by New South Wales at 8.8%, Queensland at 3.6%, and Western Australia at 0.2%. Approvals fell significantly in Tasmania with a fall of 32.6% and were down 9.9% in South Australia. In trend terms approvals increased in the Northern Territory by 9.7% and in the ACT by 6% during May. Meanwhile, the HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, recorded the first decline for 2015 in May with total seasonally adjusted new home sales falling by 2.3%. The decline was driven by a 5.1% dip in detached house sales, and this reflected weaker monthly demand in four out of the five states surveyed, according to HIA chief economist Harley Dale. ‘This is a softer result at face value, but delving beneath the surface reveals an aggregate profile of healthy new home building conditions in 2015. The mature stage of the new home building cycle primarily reflects further momentum in the multi-unit sector, together with persistence of healthy conditions in New South Wales and Victoria,’ he pointed out. The data shows that new sales of multi-units increased by 7.6% to yet a new record level, with sales volumes up by 26.7% over the three months to May. Meanwhile strength in detached houses sales is evident in New South Wales and Victoria, with growth in the May 2015 quarter of 5.2% and 6.2% respectively. ‘Leading indicators such as new home sales and ABS building approvals will provide vital clues in coming months of the sustainability and composition of the upcycle in new home building in 2015/2016,’ said Dale. A breakdown of the… Continue reading
UK student property investment growing, latest figures show
Investment into the UK’s student housing market hit £3.98 billion in the first half of 2015, well ahead of the £2.35 billion for the whole of 2014, the latest data shows. Within that total, London saw a record £1.98 billion of transactions across the first half of the year, according to research from commercial property and real estate services advisor CBRE. The firm said that these numbers come as many investors begin to see the student accommodation market as a higher yielding way of gaining exposure to London’s PRS, with yields at an attractive margin above conventional residential stock. It adds that the record inflows seen in London have caused the fastest change in student housing yields in the whole of the UK, with yields now at 4.75% on a par with the previous peak in 2007. Student housing supply remains constrained across the UK, as a growing number of students chase a severely limited stock of purpose built accommodation in most university towns, according to Jo Winchester, head of student housing advisory at CBRE. ‘So long as demand outstrips supply, upward pressure on both rents and capital values will continue to make the market an attractive proposition for investors, and we don't expect the market to come off the boil for some time,’ explained Winchester. She added that some investors see student housing as a more cost effective way of gaining access to the PRS, both in terms of higher yields and lower capital values per square foot. ‘Although there are differences between residential and student accommodation operational models, some larger student housing operators and investors in the sector are beginning to explore build to let development and investing in the PRS. As this happens, it is possible that the operational models could become more closely aligned,’ she concluded. Continue reading
