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Property sales fell back in UK in July, latest transaction data shows
Property sales in the UK fell back between June and July by 4.4%, according to the latest seasonally adjusted estimate from HMRC. There were a total of 100,720 residential transactions and 10,100 others in July, the data shows, some 0.2% higher compared with the same month last year. Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of agents Marsh & Parsons, pointed out that it is the first rise on an annual basis for this measure for seven successive months. ‘In July, sales may have slipped back slightly month on month, but we need to remember that the market was working overtime in June to regain ground lost before the election,’ he said. He explained that ever since the changes to stamp duty at the end of 2014 property taxation has become more of a sticking point in London, and here buyer demand has slowed somewhat at the top-end. ‘It will take a while for these changes to fully bed in, and in the meantime house price rises and property sales in the capital may be outshone by other UK regions for the months to come,’ he said. ‘But that’s not to say they’ve fallen out of line and with an average 12 buyers chasing every available property on the market, the strength of the demand for homes in London will continue to push growth up a gear,’ he added. Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of conveyancing services provider myhomemove, also believes that the general election has been a factor affecting the property market in recent months. ‘The general election’s outcome assured buyers and sellers that the housing market was likely to remain stable, leading to a spike in the number of property transactions in June. Today’s HMRC figures show that the number of transactions has barely changed over the last year and this begs the question about why a year’s steady improvement in the economy hasn’t led to an increase in home purchases, particularly when mortgage availability and rates have been so favourable,’ he said. ‘The main impediment has been a serious shortage in supply. There is a lot of appetite from buyers but not enough homes for sale to meet demand. This mismatch is stoking price rises. In some areas we have even seen instances of gazumping, as sellers look to make the most of competition between buyers by accepting higher offers,’ he explained. He believes that the big question looming in the background is the timing of an interest rate rise from the Bank of England. Many would be buyers are keen to purchase while mortgage rates are so low. Increased anticipation of rate rises is putting greater pressure on buyers and competition for homes for sale could drive up prices further in the short term,’ he added. Continue reading
Paris could be the next city to attract more overseas property investment, it is suggested
Much has been said about London’s prime property market attracting foreign buyers but now Paris is being discussed as being just as interesting for overseas investors. Overseas investors are regarding Paris as having highly competitive real estate prices due to the weaker Euro, according to the latest report from property agents VINGT Paris. For example, using current exchange rates a UK investor could save up to 40% on the average Paris property, as the pound’s strength would see a €700,000 home cost £510,000. According to figures from the report, Paris is second only to London as Europe’s most attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with 66.7% of Paris property currently owned by overseas investors. The firm believes that this is likely to increase further as UK property prices continue to rise and investment returns fall, coupled with a weakening Euro, which is currently at a seven year low against the pound and 12 year low against the dollar. The report suggests that Paris has always had an unmistakable allure, with its rich history, neoclassical architecture and Haussmannian style apartments retaining a global appeal. Susie Hollands, chief executive officer of VINGT Paris, believes that it is a good time to invest in property in the city. ‘Its culture, cuisine, reputation for intellectualism and abundance of beautiful homes make Paris a world class city, plus it has excellent international schools, a solid infrastructure and excellent transport network,’ she said. ‘The talk in the market over the past two to three years has been dominated by London, however, people forget that France is the world’s fifth largest economy and investors will always be attracted by the Paris property market’s incredible resilience,’ she pointed out. ‘Overseas investors have hedged against inflation by investing their liquid resources in tangible, prime Paris properties, so as London becomes increasingly unaffordable, Paris will be the winner. The potential returns in five to six years’ time will be worth it,’ she added. Since the global recession, overall property prices in Paris and London have consistently increased but growth in some part of London has been regarded as unsustainable and indeed prices in some locations are static or even falling. Comparing prices of London and Paris districts of similar stature, between 2007 and 2014, VINGT Paris found that prices in Paris’ 8th arrondissement rose by 21%, while in Knightsbridge they were up by 84% over the same period. Similarly, South Kensington saw a 67% price increase in the same seven year period, compared to 26% in Paris’ 6th arrondissement. The only area of comparatively similar growth in the period is Notting Hill with growth of 33% and Paris’ 3rd arrondissement at 35%. Comparing the per square foot prices of the same London and Paris districts, the report found that despite similar price growth, Notting Hill apartments were almost twice as expensive as those in the 3rd arrondissement. Similarly, prices in South Kensington were nearly two and a half times greater than the… Continue reading
UK commercial property market strong enough to withstand interest rate rise
There are few concerns about a rise in interest rates in the UK commercial property market which is regarded as being strong enough to take a base rate rise in its stride, according to a new report. The all property capital growth index rose by 0.7% in July month on month, which is down on the 0.9% reported for June, the latest market outlook report from real estate firm Knight Frank shows. Industrial saw the highest capital growth at 1.2% and retail the lowest at 0.2% while 12 month total return fell again to 16.2%. Investment volume from January to July was £38.4 billion, up from £30.1 billion for the same period of 2014. ‘Normally a rise in interest rates signals that the UK economy has moved into a period of excess, and the Bank of England has decided it is time to rein back inflationary pressures. So it is unusual to find widespread discussion on when interest rates will rise at a time when inflation is largely absent, and could stay that way for some time,’ said James Roberts chief economist at Knight Frank. ‘However, this rate increase is different. It is a sign the UK economy, like the US, is getting near to the day it can throw away the crutches of very low interest rates. Indeed, UK policymakers now want the safety net of higher rates. Should we hit another economic crisis, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will thus have the option of cutting rates before resorting to printing money,’ he explained. ‘Parts of Europe presently have negative interest rates, and were some fresh disaster to unfold, they would have little choice other than to plunge further into the minus figures, or print money. All this increases the UK’s safe haven credentials. This probably explains why at present the commercial property industry seems to be so little concerned about the approach of higher interest rates,’ he pointed out. ‘When presenting to clients on the UK market one is more likely to be asked about the impact of the EU in/out referendum, or even the Chinese slowdown, than a rate rise. We live in a world of hedges and swaps which soften the impact of rate rises, and the Bank of England is giving lots of guidance to prevent firms and households from being wrong footed. So while the cost of debt will rise, most borrowers will be ready for the change,’ he added. Roberts explained that the Bank’s guidance is that rates will rise gradually over a long period, and there are very good reasons for this gradual strategy. ‘Financial institutions hold lots of Gilts, so big and sudden losses on bonds could reopen systemic uncertainties initially. Also, thinking back on those countries where rates are negative or nearly zero, if UK rates move too far ahead, then carry trade money will flood into British banks, with the risk of creating a future lending bubble,’ he said. ‘Moreover, the MPC’s… Continue reading
