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US housing market moving further towards stability, says latest Freddie Mac index
The US housing market continues to slowly stabilise with prices just 7% below peak values nationally and price indices in many markets are at all-time highs, according to the latest multi indictor market index. Two additional states, Arkansas and Tennessee, and four additional metro areas, of Omaha, Nebraska; Scranton, Pennsylvania; Chattanooga, Tennessee and Madison, Wisconsin, are now on the outer range of stable housing activity, says the report from Freddie Mac. The national MiMi value stands at 80.3, indicating a housing market that is on its outer stable range, while showing an improvement of 1.33% from May to June and a quarterly improvement of 2.26%. On a year on year basis, the national MiMi value has improved 5.41%. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 35% but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7. The data also shows that 28 of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with the District of Columbia at 101.7, North Dakota at 96.2, Montana at 93.5, Hawaii at 92.9, and California and Utah tied at 89, ranking in the top five. Some 42 of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with Fresno at 96.8, Austin at 94.9, Honolulu at 93.7, Salt Lake City at 91.7 and Los Angeles at 91.5, ranking in the top five. The most improving states month on month were New Jersey with growth of 2.61%, Florida up 2.6%, the District of Columbia up 2.31%, Connecticut up 2.26% and Nevada and Rhode Island both up 2.18%. The index data also shows that year on year the most improving states were Oregon with growth of 13.59%, Florida up 13.27%, Nevada up 12.38%, Colorado up 10.18% and Rhode Island up 9.32%. The most improving metro areas month on month were Stockton, California, up 3.48%, Cape Coral, Florida, up 3.36%, Sarasota, Florida, up 3.34%, Lakeland, Florida up 3.19% and Tampa, Florida up 2.96%. On a year on year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando, Florida with growth of 16.22%, Cape Coral, Florida up 16.13%, Portland, Oregon up 14.57%, Palm Bay, Florida up 14.37% and North Port, Florida up 14.33%. In June, 45 of the 50 states and 95 of the 100 metros were showing an improving three month trend. The same time last year, 33 of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 80 of the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three month trend. ‘Housing markets are the strongest they've been in years with the National MiMi above 80 for the first time since 2008. Nationally, all MiMi indicators are heading in the right direction,’ said Freddie Mac deputy chief economist Len Kiefer. ‘Robust home buyer demand has put total home sales on pace for the best year since 2007 and look for that trend to continue as the MiMi purchase applications indicator remains on the upswing. The West has been especially strong, with… Continue reading
Supply increases in UK private residential rental sector
The number of available private rented properties in the UK increased in July but at the same time demand dipped, according to the latest monthly report from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA). Agents managed an average of 189 properties per branch in July, compared to 178 in June and demand across the UK decreased slightly with an average 35 prospective tenants registered per ARLA branch in July compared to 36 in June. The report says that whilst this may be a result of the quieter summer months it is a step in the right direction for balancing supply and demand in the sector. However, demand in London has continued to rise, with 40 prospective tenants registered per branch in July, compared to 36 per branch last month. Some 35% of ARLA agents expect the supply of rental properties to continue increasing over the next five years. The East of England is most optimistic, with over half of agents in the region, 53%, predicting supply will continue to rise. However, only 15% in the south West and 16% in Yorkshire and Humberside predict continuing growth of housing stock for tenants. The report also reveals that letting agents are continuing to see increases in the cost of renting for tenants, with 37% reporting rents had increased between June and July, the highest number since tracking began in January, when levels were at 27%. The report also found tenants in the West Midlands have been affected by rent increases the most, with 64% of agents reporting rents had increased in July shortly followed by the East of England where 53% of agents witnessed rent increases. In comparison, only 21% of tenants in the North West experienced a rise. ‘To finally see a rise in available rental properties is definitely a step in the right direction; although with demand remaining the same, we still have a long way to go in achieving a balanced and stable private rented sector,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘Following the changes to pensions made in April, the fact that a third of agents are predicting supply will continue to increase over the next five years could be a result of people releasing equity from their pensions to invest in the buy to let market,’ he pointed out. ‘It’s clear from this month’s findings that the growing gap between supply and demand is an issue still rife in the capital; which doesn’t look to be improving any time soon. With the cost of renting continuing to rise month by month, it’s a worrying state of affairs for those hoping to save for their first house and just pushing the aspiration of owning a home further out of reach,’ he added. Continue reading
Strong mortgage activity boost for Scotland, latest CML data shows
Mortgage activity in Scotland saw a rise of 39% in the second quarter of 2015 and is also up 3.1% year on year, according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. It is outperforming other areas of the UK which have seen only a small quarterly rise and indeed the Scottish market saw the highest number of loans to those purchasing a home since the second quarter of 2008. A breakdown of the data shows that the value of first time buyer loans increased by 52% in comparison to the first quarter of 2015 and 11% year on year. The number of first time buyer loans is up 51% on the first quarter of 2015 and 5% on the second quarter of 2014. The data also shows that first time buyers account for 48% and home movers 52% of all house purchase lending activity and typically borrowed 3.02 times their gross household income, up from 2.84 the previous quarter but less than the UK average of 3.38. The typical loan size for first time buyers was £101,515 in the second quarter, up from £94,795 in the first quarter while the typical gross income of a first time buyer household was £34,000 also up compared to £33,677 in the first quarter. First time buyers' payment burden in the second quarter was 17.2% of gross income to cover capital and interest payments, up on the first quarter's 17% but lower than the 18.4% UK average. Home owner house purchase activity came out of the traditional seasonal dip in the first quarter to see large growth in numbers both quarter on quarter and, to a lesser extent, year on year. Remortgage lending rebounded out of a stagnant period to total the highest volumes since the last quarter of 2013. ‘After three quarters of consecutive decline, it is welcome to see house purchase levels in Scotland bounce back finally. This quarter saw the highest number of loans to those purchasing a home since the second quarter of 2008,’ said Kennedy Foster, CML policy consultant for Scotland. ‘With competitive mortgage deals, better affordability than the UK overall and the replacement of stamp duty with a new taxation system that benefits the majority of borrowers, it appears conditions are relatively favourable at the moment in Scotland for those looking to buy a home,’ he added. According to Christine Campbell, managing director of Your Move Scotland, activity may have been boosted by the revised stamp duty system in Scotland by providing a helping hand. ‘Since its introduction house purchase loans have soared to a seven year high, after a staggering 39% quarterly leap. Scottish buyers are eagerly making the most of the new tax savings available, and we’ve seen property sales rise 25% month on month in June,’ she explained. She believes that any rise in interest rates will be put back even further by the current turmoil in the finance markets due to the slowing Chinese economy and the current… Continue reading
