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UK house prices set to rise by 6% this year, says RICS
Acceleration in national house price growth in the UK is being reinforced by the continued imbalance between falling new instructions to sell and rising buyer demand, according to the latest market report. The August 2015 residential market survey report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says that the shortage of housing stock is driving prices higher and the organisation now predicts that house prices are set to rise by 6% in 2015. The RICS price indicator reached a 15 month high in August, with a net balance of 53% more respondents reporting price-rises, and firm growth being seen across all areas of the UK. Further analysis, using Office for National Statistics’ data as the comparator, indicates that prices now look likely to rise in the region of 6% over the course of 2015, compared with 3% predicted at the beginning of the year. The strongest price growth is forecast in Northern Ireland, where prices are now anticipated to rise by 11% throughout 2015. Both near and medium term price expectations series from the survey are reflective of the imbalance between demand and supply. Some 37% more members are expecting prices to continue to rise over the next three months and 76% over the coming year. Meanwhile the agreed sales balance edged upwards for the fourth successive month but a more robust recovery in activity is continuing to be held back in part by the lack of stock on the market. The data also shows that new buyer enquiries increased for a fifth month in succession, with 22% of respondents reporting a rise in demand, led by significant improvements in the West Midlands, Wales and the North West. New instructions, however, have yet to record any meaningful upturn since the middle of 2013, pushing average stock levels to record lows. 'While the UK housing market has seen some substantial volatility in demand over the last 18 months, the most consistent feature has been a distinct shortage of new instructions,' said RICS economist Michael Hanley. 'With respondents reporting another fall in appraisals during August, and looking at general market conditions, we have no reason to believe this will change in the near term. Therefore, despite the fact that demand has been picking up in recent months, we have lowered our forecast for transactions for 2015 from 1.25 million to 1.2 million. Alongside this, we have revised our expectations for price gains this year up to 6%,' he explained. When it come to the lettings market the report reveals that tenant demand rose at a steady pace for the eighth successive month, outstripping the modest pick-up in new landlord instructions. Accordingly, rents are expected to increase in the near term, with 34% of respondents predicting a rise in rents during the next three months. 'Given current market conditions, the latest data unsurprisingly shows house prices continuing to rise, and at an accelerating pace. As such, house price inflation has now quickened in each of the last seven months following a sustained period of easing towards the… Continue reading
UK sees strong month on month price growth, latest index shows
Residential property prices in the UK increased by 2.7% between July and August and are up 9% compared with a year ago, according to the latest index figures from the Halifax. The data from the lender also shows that on a quarterly basis, from June to August, prices were 3% higher than in the previous three month period. It is the biggest monthly price rise since May 2014 when it was 3.8% but the index report points out that monthly movements can be volatile and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend. The index report also shows that buying still cheaper than renting. The average monthly costs associated with buying a three bedroom house in the UK for a first time buyer was £666 in June 2015, some 8% or £56 lower than the typical monthly rent paid on the same property type at £722 a month. With the price of a typical first time buyer home rising by 8% over the past year, the difference between the cost of owning and the cost of renting has narrowed from £85 to £56 over the past year. 'The underlying pace of house price growth is strong. The shortage of second hand properties for sale on the market is resulting in upward pressure on house prices,' said Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist. 'At the same time, economic recovery, real earnings growth and very low mortgage rates are supporting housing demand. Strengthening demand and highly constrained supply are likely to mean that house price growth continues to be robust in the short term,' he added. However, according to Rob Weaver, director of property at residential investment platform Property Partner, for many people, weak supply and the resultant price growth have become an almost insurmountable barrier to getting on the property ladder. 'With supply so low, consumer confidence healthy and mortgage rates still at record lows, strong price growth is a trend that can only continue in the months ahead. If prices carrying on rising at this rate, even many haves will become property have nots,' he said. 'House price growth in August hit its highest level in 16 months, as the number of homes being marketed fell to record low levels. Sellers are just not coming to the market and no-one really has an answer to how to tempt them back,' he explained. 'We are in danger of seeing the days of free wheeling price growth, and we know where that ended up. There needs to be a focus on creating more supply, because without properties coming to the market, prices will continue to grow and the market will continue to become more and more volatile,' he added. Jonathan Hopper, managing director of the buying agents Garrington Property Finders, believes that price growth is being driven by a curious mixture of strength and starvation. 'Britain's economic strengths of wage growth, low inflation and bullish sentiment, are… Continue reading
House prices in England and Wales see biggest monthly boost for 12 months
Average house prices in England and Wales increased by almost £2,000 in august, the biggest monthly boost for a year, the latest index data to be published shows. They increased by £1,900 or 0.7% compared with July which takes the average prices of a home to its eighth peak this year at £282,816, according to the LSL index. Year on year average prices rose 4.1%, the data also shows and East Anglia has seen the highest regional rise due to a shortage of properties coming onto the market. However, sales are down, recording a monthly drop of 14% in August and are now behind 2013 levels. The north of England recorded the strongest sales activity with transactions up 3% year on year. Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, pointed out that so far in 2015, monthly price rises have struggled to break above the 0.5%, so this latest rise marks a step up in pace. He believes that a shortfall of summer sellers puts buyers in hot contention for properties. He also pointed out that compared to last year, average property prices have climbed £11,225 and all 10 regions of England and Wales are showing annual increases in house prices. Indeed, the last region to experience a year on year fall in property values was Wales in July 2013. He is not too worried about the dip in sales.'Home sales across England and Wales reached 76,700 in August, down 14% on July levels. This should be taken with a pinch a salt as July was an exceptionally strong month for transactions, and activity in August can be seen as balancing this out,' said Sexton. 'But August is also the first time in 2015 to date that property sales have fallen below their equivalent month in 2013. In the three months to July 2015, property sales have dropped 3% year on year. Across all of England and Wales, the North is the only region where activity has increased over the period, with home sales up 3% during May to July 2015 compared to the same three months in 2014,' he explained. The largest fall in activity has been in East Anglia, with total property sales down 9%, and sales of flats 15% lower year on year from May to July. At the same time, this region has experienced the highest house price growth of any region, at 5.9% in July 2015. 'This suggests it’s not demand that is the problem, but supply. The lack of properties coming onto the market here is intensifying competition and heating up price rises, above temperatures we’re seeing elsewhere, said Sexton. 'The nationwide mismatch between sellers putting homes up for sale and buyer demand should warm up measures of growth for the autumn. August represented the twelfth month in succession that the annual rate of growth declined, down steadily from 11.1% in August 2014, to 4.1% last… Continue reading
