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Latest index data confirms slowdown in price growth and sales in UK market
House prices in the UK are slowing both on a monthly and a quarterly basis, confirming the general decline in value growth, according to the latest index from the Halifax. In the August to October 2014 period prices were 0.8% higher than in the previous three months and this is the slowest quarterly rise since December 2012 when house prices grew by 0.7%. The sharp fall in the quarterly rate from 2.7% in September is largely explained by the 4% monthly rise in prices between April and May dropping out of the three month on three month calculation, according to Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist. Prices in the three months to October were 8.8% higher than in the same three months a year earlier and based on this measure, annual house price growth has been slowing since the middle of summer after reaching a peak of 10.2% in July. The index data also shows that house prices fell by 0.4% between September and October, the fifth monthly decline in the past year. Home sales are also falling. They contracted for the seventh month in succession, falling to 97,450 in September, the lowest level since October 2013 when they were 95,640. Sales in September were 11% below their recent in peak in February 2014 at 109,530 according to HMRC, seasonally adjusted figures. At the same time mortgage approvals at a 14 month low. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales, fell for the third consecutive month in September, to 61,300. Approvals have now fallen by 20% from 76,500 in January 2014 according to Bank of England seasonally adjusted figures. There are signs of an improved balance between supply and demand. Market conditions, as measured by the ratio of house sales to the stock of unsold properties, reported by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly survey, eased for the second consecutive month in September as a result of lower sales, according to the latest data. This suggests that a better balance between supply and demand may be emerging. Ellis pointed out that the economy is continuing to grow at a healthy pace and employment is still rising and these factors should support housing demand over the coming months. ‘However, while the chances of an imminent interest rate hike may have receded, a recent Halifax survey found that many borrowers are concerned about the impact a rise could have on their monthly mortgage repayments over the next 12 months. This concern is likely to curb buying intentions,’ he added. It feels like the market has had a small stutter, according to Jonathan Hudson, of London west end agent Hudson Property. ‘While buyers are getting used to the new MMR ruling on mortgage affordability and while some have their eye on the general election in May, I would say these figures represent the mood in the market,’ he said. ‘People are still buying, but only sellers with a reason for moving are accepting… Continue reading
A property overseas still proving popular among British buyers
Buying property overseas is proving more popular this year than it was in 2013 although there is evidence of growth levelling off during the third quarter, according to new research. Spain, Portugal and France remain the most popular countries for British people to buy an overseas property, with Italy and Turkey the ones to watch, says the latest quarterly report from the Overseas Guides Company. The firm found that between January and September 2014, there was a 17% increase in enquiries compared to the same period last year, rising from 29,299 to 34,287. For the third quarter of 2014, enquiries were up by 4.1% year on year, from 10,518 to 10,957 in the third quarter of 2013. According to Angelos Koutsoudes, head of Overseas Guides Company, after a bullish first half of the year, there was a cooling off of enquiries during the third quarter compared to the previous two years, when the third quarter has always outperformed the first two quarters. The months of April to June continue to be the most popular months for would be homebuyers to view and complete on overseas properties, the firm has also found. Looking ahead, continued growth is expected in the key markets, with mortgage rates in the Eurozone remaining at historic lows and sterling likely to maintain a comparatively strong value against the euro. There is also a sentiment that the bargain prices of homes in popular parts of Spain, France and Portugal won't last forever, with signs that hotspots are already seeing slight price rises. The recent Overseas Guides Company reader’s survey showed that Spain, France and Portugal are the most popular countries for those considering buying property abroad and with those readers who already have a second property. Spain is still by far the most popular country, generating 2,710 enquiries in the third quarter, compared to 2,494 enquiries in the third quarter of 2013. Things are really looking up for Spain, both in terms of the property market and the economy as a whole. The International Monetary Fund recently announced that the southern European countries will lead the rest of the European Union in terms of economic growth over the next year and the economy is expected to grow at 1.3% in 2014 and continue by 1.7% in 2015. France remains a firm favourite in second place with 2,575 enquiries. Not only have house prices across the country remained stable over the last year, with average prices even falling in some areas, but France is also now offering interest-only mortgages to non-French residents. Star performers in the third quarter in terms of growth were Italy up 12.7%, Greece up 52% and Turkey up 8.5% in terms of enquiries compared to the previous quarter. Continue reading
Industrial building driving UK construction growth, latest RICS survey shows
Industrial building is driving construction growth in the UK and the country’s office and industrial sector rents are expected to rise as their fastest rate since 1998 in the last quarter of 2014. Indeed, the UK has seen a sixth consecutive quarterly fall in office space availability nationwide with the decline at its fastest pace since the late 1990s according to the latest Commercial Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). It also shows that the rise in transactions of commercial properties being sold with Permitted Development Rights (PDR) appears to be compounding the lack of availability, with two thirds of respondents to the survey suggesting that if PDR exemptions are not extended then availability of commercial properties will be impacted further. In London, 20% of respondents said PDR transactions had led to more than 10% of available commercial properties being earmarked for conversion into residential use and a net balance of 51% of surveyors reported a rise in demand for office, industrial and retail space. Across the whole of the UK, 32% more surveyors said availability across office, retail and industrial properties had fallen, while demand had risen to a net balance of 44%. RICS says it is significant that demand for industrial property grew on the previous quarter from a net balance of 49% in the second quarter to 56% in the third quarter and surveyors in London also saw a large rise in prospective overseas investors in the industrial sector of 73%. The picture across the UK appears increasingly upbeat, with the firmer tone spreading beyond the capital as the economic expansion gains greater traction. This is being reflected in rental expectations which are now in positive territory in all parts of the country in the office and industrial sectors. Retail remains something of a laggard with a flatter rental trend away from the more dynamic parts of the market. For the next 12 months a net balance of 71% surveyors are forecasting an increase in rent levels in London across all segments of the market, compared to 36% in the North of England. ‘The third quarter results provide further evidence that the economic expansion is becoming more broadly based with tenant demand for space picking up in all parts of the country and the need for landlords to provide inducements diminishing,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist . ‘There are also now clear signs that investors are casting their nets wider in a bid to find better value in the market following the steep drop in yields on prime property in the capital,’ he added. He also pointed out that while permitted development rights is helping in a small way to boost much needed housing supply, the latest survey suggests that it is also having the unintended consequence of contributing towards a shortfall of office space in some parts of the country. ‘Feedback from members suggests that this is particularly marked in London and adding to the upward pressure on rents. Moreover, there is… Continue reading
