TSI
Property sales in Canada set to rise by almost 4% this year
Residential property sales in Canada are forecast to increase by 3.8% this year compared to 2013, according to revised figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The data reflects stronger than expected sales in recent months. Even so, sales activity is expected to peak in the third quarter as the impact of a deferred spring dissipates and continuing home price increases erode housing affordability. This would place activity in 2014 slightly above but still broadly in line with its 10 year average. Despite periods of monthly volatility since the recession of 2008/2009, annual activity has remained stable within a fairly narrow range around its 10 year average. This stability contrasts sharply to the rapid growth in sales in the early 2000s prior to the recession. British Columbia is forecast to post the largest year on year increase in activity at 11.9% followed closely by Alberta at 7.7%. Demand in both of these provinces is currently running at multi year highs. Activity in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick is expected to come in roughly in line with 2013 levels, with sales increases ranging between 1% and 2% in the first three provinces and edging lower by about 1% lower sales in the latter two provinces. Sales in Nova Scotia and in Newfoundland and Labrador are projected to be down this year by 3.9% and 5.2% respectively. Mortgage interest rates are expected to edge higher as Canadian exports, business investment, job growth, and incomes improve. These opposing factors should benefit housing markets where demand has been softer but prices have remained more affordable. Sales in relatively less affordable housing markets are likely to be more sensitive to higher fixed mortgage rates, the CREA report also says. National activity is now forecast to reach 473,100 units in 2015, representing a decline of four tenths of 1%. Sales activity is forecast to grow fastest in Nova Scotia at 3.3%, followed by Quebec with growth of 1.3% and New Brunswick at 1.3%. Alberta is the only other province forecast to post higher sales next year with growth of 1%. In other provinces, activity is forecast to decline in the range of between 1% and 2%. In British Columbia and Ontario, this trend reflects eroding affordability for single family homes, the report says. The national average price has evolved largely as expected since the spring, resulting in little change to CREA’s previous forecast so it is projected to rise by 5.9% to $405,000 in 2014, with similar price gains in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. Increases of just below 3% are forecast for Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island. Newfoundland and Labrador is forecast to see average home price rise by about 1% this year, while Quebec is forecast to see an increase half that size. Prices are forecast to be flat in New Brunswick and recede by almost 2% in Nova Scotia. The national average price is forecast to edge up a further 0.7% in 2015 to $407,900. Alberta and Manitoba… Continue reading
Value of British property owned by landlords set to break £1 trillion mark in 2015
The value of property owned by landlords in Great Britain is set to break the £1 trillion pound barrier next year, according to new research. The inaugural Buy to let Britain report from Kent Reliance shows that the total value of property in the private rented sector has now reached £930.7 billion, climbing by £109.5 billion in the last year alone, a rise of 13.3%. From its recent trough in 2009, the sector has gained £302.5 billion and the financial crisis had little impact on the sector. Even since the 2007 peak of the property boom, it has risen by more than quarter of a trillion pounds. The longer term growth is even more impressive, with the value of landlords’ assets now more three and a half times its level at the start of 2001 when it was £262.1 billion. The report suggests that resurgent property prices have been a key driver in the increasing value of the private rented sector but long term growth has been underpinned by very strong demand from tenants wanting rented homes. Since 2001, the PRS has expanded by nearly two million households, increasing by 71.4% since the start of 2001. There are now more than 4.6 million households in the British private rented sector due to a combination of individuals and families choosing to be flexible, ongoing net immigration, falling real wages, greater indebtedness among younger households, rising property prices and difficulty in securing mortgage finance. The report also suggests that a serious shortfall in house building and regulations requiring developers to build social housing are both pushing up the price of would be starter homes too. While there are signs that the rapid house price growth may be slowing, Kent Reliance’s analysis of current market trends suggests the PRS will break through the £1 trillion barrier in the second quarter of 2015. London currently accounts for 41% of the sector’s value at £377.3 billion while the South East is the next biggest component with its value of £137 billion or 15%. The South East alone has a greater value than that of the four smallest in monetary terms in the North East, Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands. The disproportionate size of the PRS by tenure inside London’s population, where over a quarter live in privately rented homes, compared to 18% in Great Britain overall, is a major factor in the pace of growth in the overall sector's value, the report says. Rapid London house price growth has much a bigger effect on the private rented sector than it does in the wider housing market. The amount of rent tenants are paying each month across the UK has increased with the PRS. Landlords earned £44.8 billion in the 12 months to June, equivalent to nearly half the UK’s total annual household expenditure on food, and up by £2.3 billion or 5.5% compared to a year ago. However, the increase in rents themselves… Continue reading
Prices dip in prime outer London as election cools demand
Prices in prime outer London fell in October, ending a period of 40 consecutive months of growth, according to the latest report from Knight Frank. A decrease of 0.2% was the first fall since May 2011, which meant annual growth slowed to 10.1% from 11.8% in September. Despite the fact annual growth eased, it exceeded the figure of 8.4% in October last year. Knight Frank forecasts growth in prime outer London will slow to 3% in 2015, predominantly due to the possibility of a mansion tax after the general election in May next year, though we expect cumulative growth of 26% between 2015 and 2019 as demand continues to exceed supply. Doubt also surrounds the timing of an interest rate rise even though weak wage growth and low inflation means the likelihood of a near term increase has receded. ‘The combination of this uncertainty and the fact prices have risen strongly over a prolonged period of time means annual growth will unavoidably slow, which it has been doing since the summer,’ said Tom Bill, He pointed out that in many cases, more realistic asking prices have re-awakened the interest of buyers. The most marked decrease was in Fulham where prices fell 1.1% in October. The area has a high number of houses worth between £2 million and £4 million, which could potentially be liable for mansion tax. Meanwhile, there was growth in east London, with prices increasing by 0.4% in Wapping and 0.1% in Canary Wharf in October, the only two Knight Frank offices in prime outer London to record a rise. Bill explained that both areas benefit from their relative proximity to London’s two financial centres of the City and Canary Wharf, the fact they have fewer £2 million plus properties and the emergence of high quality new build schemes in east London that lifts prices in the re-sales market. Rental values fell 0.1% in October and the annual decline was 0.9%. Despite the decrease, demand rose in the third quarter of 2014, which meant quarterly growth remained positive, as figure two shows. Meanwhile, yields jumped by the most in over three years to 3.59%, their highest level in seven months. The Knight Frank Prime Outer London Index, established in 1997, is the longest running and most comprehensive index covering the prime outer London residential marketplace. The index is based on a repeat valuation methodology that tracks capital values of prime outer London residential property. Continue reading
