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UK real estate markets set to continue to expand in 2015 says CBRE
Year on year, UK real estate markets will continue to expand, but the overall trend will be a slowing of growth to more sustainable levels, according to the latest forecast. Prime London commercial markets will continue to grow in 2015, but confidence and investor interest will encourage growth in prime regional markets, says the report from commercial real estate advisor CBRE. It reveals that in 2014, total returns to property averaged nearly 20% but predicts that in 2015, there will be a slowing of growth rates with average returns just under 13%. It also points out that the general election will bring some uncertainty in property decision making and adds that year on year there will be significant rental growth for most sectors but a further improvement in yields as investment inflows continue into the UK market. Prospects for retail properties remain among the most uncertain, with few sure signs just yet that stable growth is returning to consumer spending, and cost pressures and distractions across the sector, particularly in grocery retailing, although in 2015 as in 2014, prime retail destinations will remain a safe bet. Industrial property will continue to be attractive for investors due to a dearth of quality supply and price growth in the housing market will ease in 2015 to around 6% with transaction levels having peaked for the time being. ‘This has been a year of extraordinary expansion across the property sector and while this will continue into 2015, overall there will be a return to more sustainable levels of growth,’ said Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE. ‘Rental growth will continue in all sectors and we expect investment yields to continue to improve as levels of capital flows into the UK market remain high. In terms of where growth, we forecast a ripple effect next year as property investors shift from London out to the regions,’ he explained. He also pointed out that global economic factors, most notably the falling price of crude oil, in 2015 will benefit the UK. ‘The likely effects of pushing down inflation and boosting consumer spending, means we should expect to see a knock on benefit for retailers which in turn could stimulate growth in the retail property sector,’ said Gibson. ‘Although there positive signals for the property market, we recognise that there will be uncertainty caused by the imminent general election. The combination of these trends makes 2015 an intriguing prospect for the sector,’ he added. Continue reading
Greenwich in London sees largest house price growth in last 12 months
The London Borough of Greenwich recorded the biggest rise in house prices among major UK towns and cities over the past year, according to new research. The study, based on house price data from leading lender the Halifax, shows that the average house price in this south east corner of the capital was 24.6% higher than in the previous year, increasing from £263,183 to £328,044 in 2014. The Halifax report says that this is a significantly faster increase than in London as a whole, which saw price growth of 13% over the same time. Ealing, in West London, experienced the second biggest rise in average house prices with an increase of 24.5%, the research also shows. Crawley in Sussex with growth of 22.4% saw the third largest rise and is the only town outside London making the top 10. And overall some nine of the 10 areas with the strongest price growth in the past year are in London. These include Tower Hamlets with growth of 22%, Kingston upon Thames at 21.4% and Sutton in south London at 20.7%. Sheffield is the top performing area outside the south with prices rising by an average of 13.7% over the past year. Over the past five years, the South Yorkshire city has seen a significant increase in employment, particularly in managerial, professional and technical skilled occupations. This may have been a key factor in helping to boost housing demand, and hence prices, in the city. The towns experiencing a decline in the average value of homes over the past year are all outside southern England. Bury in Lancashire saw a fall of 4.8%, Keighley in West Yorkshire was down 4.4% and Nuneaton in Warwickshire down 3.2%. Four of the 10 weakest performing towns are in the North West. Besides Bury, they are St. Helens with a fall of 2.6%, Preston down 2% and Rochdale down 0.9%. ‘A number of towns and cities have recorded significant rises in house prices over the past 12 months. Nine of the 10 best performing areas are in the capital, and therefore within easy reach of central London,’ said Craig McKinlay, mortgage director at the Halifax. ‘Continuing improvements in the economy, rising employment and low mortgage rates will no doubt have supported housing demand and, combined with shortage of homes coming on to the market, will have contributed to rising property values,’ he explained. ‘At the other end of the spectrum, several of the towns experiencing price falls in the past year are still suffering from relatively weak employment conditions, which may have had an adverse impact on their local housing markets,’ he added. Continue reading
US home sales fall to lowest annual pace for six months, latest data shows
Home sales in the United States have fallen to their lowest annual pace for six months, down 6.1% in November, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Total sales, excluding new build, reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million in November from a downwardly revised 5.25 million in October but they are still up 2.1% compared to a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales activity was choppy throughout the country in November and housing inventory began its seasonal decline. ‘Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,’ he pointed out. ‘The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market,’ he added. But prices are still strong. The median existing home price for all housing types in November was $205,300, 5% above November 2013 and the 33rd consecutive month of year on year price gains. The NAR data also shows that total housing inventory at the end of November fell 6.7% to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1 month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from last month. Despite the tightening in supply, unsold inventory remains 2% higher than a year ago, when there were 2.05 million existing homes available for sale. ‘Lagging home building activity continues to hamstring overall housing supply and is still too low in relation to this year’s promising job growth. Much faster price and rent appreciation, easily exceeding wage growth, will occur next year unless new construction picks up measurably,’ said Yun. All cash sales were 25% of transactions in November, down from 27% in October and below the 32% recorded in November of last year. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in November, unchanged from last month and below November 2013 when it was 19% while 61% of investors paid cash in November. The percent share of first time buyers in November climbed to 31% from 29% in October, the highest share since October 2012 when it was also 31%. First time buyers have represented an average of 29% this year. Distressed sales, that is foreclosures and short sales, were unchanged in November from 9% in October and remained in the single digits for the fourth month this year, well below the 14% of a year ago. Overall 6% of November sales were foreclosures and 3% were short sales. The data shows that foreclosures sold for an average discount of 17% below market value in November compared with 15% in October, while short sales were discounted 13% compared to 10% in October. Properties typically stayed on the market in November for 65 days, slightly longer than the 63 days recorded in October and above the 56 days of… Continue reading
