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Existing home sales up again in the US, but number of first time buyers falls
Existing home sales in the United States steadily increased for the third consecutive month in July, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, stubbornly low inventory levels and rising prices have resulted in sales to first time buyers falling to their lowest share since January. The data shows that total existing home sales increased 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million in July from a downwardly revised 5.48 million in June. Sales in July remained at the highest pace since February 2007 when they were 5.79 million and have now increased year on year for 10 months in a row and are 10.3% above a year ago when they were 5.07 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, explained that the increase in sales in July solidifies what has been an impressive growth in activity during this year's peak buying season. ‘The creation of jobs added at a steady clip and the prospect of higher mortgage rates and home prices down the road is encouraging more households to buy now,’ he said. ‘As a result, current home owners are using their increasing housing equity towards the down payment on their next purchase,’ he added. The data also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in July was $234,000, which is 5.6% above July 2014. July's price increase marks the 41st consecutive month of year on year gains. ‘Despite the strong growth in sales since this spring, declining affordability could begin to slowly dampen demand. Agents in some markets reported slower foot traffic in July in part because of low inventory and concerns about the continued rise in home prices without commensurate income gains,’ Yun pointed out. Total housing inventory at the end of July declined 0.4% to 2.24 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 4.7% lower than a year ago when it was 2.35 million. Unsold inventory is at a 4.8 month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.9 months in June. The percent share of first time buyers declined in July for the second consecutive month, falling from 30% in June to 28%, the lowest share since January of this year when it was also 28%. A year ago, first time buyers represented 29% of all buyers. ‘The fact that first time buyers represented a lower share of the market compared to a year ago even though sales are considerably higher is indicative of the challenges many young adults continue to face,’ said Yun. ‘Rising rents and flat wage growth make it difficult for many to save for a down payment, and the dearth of supply in affordable price ranges is limiting their options,’ he added. Properties typically stayed on the market for 42 days in July, an increase from 34 days in June but below the 48 days in July 2014. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 135 days in… Continue reading
Wealthy Chinese looking to invest more in London prime property
Chinese investors, particularly those from the mainland are set to become the biggest group of investors in London with a relaxation of the amount of money that can be moved overseas due to be implemented soon, it is claimed. The changes in the stock market may also play a key role as wealthy Chinese investors turn away from their domestic market to explore new investment opportunities overseas, says upmarket estate agent Harrods Estates. Typically Chinese spend up to £2 million on a new off plan development in London, however the firm believes this will change with buyers from China looking at investing from £2 million to £50 million in real estate. ‘There is a huge amount of wealth in China and although we have started to see investment in London property in the last five years, the focus has been on off plan new build developments ranging from £500,000 to £5 million,’ said Simon Barry, head of new residential developments at Harrods Estates. ‘This is just the beginning of a vast amount of wealth from China and we expect this will increase dramatically over the coming years, when Chinese billionaires will look to spend anything from £5 million to £50 million,’ he added. Over the past two decades, wealth generated by China’s rate of economic expansion has flowed into Hong Kong and Singapore through corporate investment, much of which has fuelled the demand for London property. Harrods Estates has seen investors from Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore, with mainland China still untapped due to an initial focus on the domestic property markets. This is now set to change as a handful of developers and estate agents explore the opportunity to reach out to mainland China, where there has not been direct to overseas property markets. ‘We expect to see more high level Chinese executives finding time to travel to London and other international centres, seeking out new markets and new opportunities outside of China,’ said Barry. He pointed out that at present there are capital controls in place restricting potential Chinese purchasers taking out US$50,000 per year, however a revised version of the Qualified Domestic Individual Investor programme (QQII 2) has recently been announced although it has yet to be implemented. ‘The programme will be open initially to anyone working in six major cities with assets in excess of circa US$160,000, and will allow them to export up to 50% by value of their net worth. For corporate investment the capital limit would rise significantly to US$1 Billion,’ he explained. He believes that China’s slowing economy and its recent stock market crash, which saw the Shanghai Composite Index lose 30% in value over a three week period in the middle of June and a further plummet in value in late July, will actually encourage investors to look at other opportunities. According to the firm one of the primary motivators for Chinese… Continue reading
Prime residential development land prices in Asia slowing
The price of prime residential development land in Asia slowed to 1.1% in the first half of 2015, down from 3% in the previous six months, but prime office land increased to 3.6%, up from 2.5%. The latest prime Asia development land index from international real estate firm Knight Frank also shows that Phnom Penh in Vietnam recorded the strongest increase in both prime residential and office land price. Prime residential and commercial land prices surging by 14.1% and 9.7% respectively. The report says that foreign investment continued to fuel strong performance in the residential sector but growth decelerated in the second quarter, suggesting that prices are peaking and the momentum will likely moderate in the second half of the year. Land sales in China plummeted by 54.8% year on year at a time when local governments in the country reduced land supply and maintained aggressive pricing as this is their main source of revenue. ‘As a result, developers in China face a double whammy of high land prices and weak sales. With the recent stock market crash, their ability to raise capital is further restricted. Anecdotally, more developers are partnering other firms to pool financial resources and pursue an asset light strategy,’ the report explains. ‘However, there is a silver lining as a recent survey conducted by China Household Finance and the Survey Centre registered signs of capital leaving the stock markets for the housing sector in the second quarter of 2015,’ it says. ‘Against this backdrop, along with a nascent recovery in the residential markets, land prices rose moderately in Beijing, Shanghai and, to a lesser extent, Guangzhou. Moving forward, land prices will continue to be supported by these factors,’ the report adds. Both residential and commercial land enjoyed robust capital appreciation in Hong Kong. The report explains that in addition to the existing healthy demand extra cooling measures, such as a lower maximum loan to value ratio and debt servicing ratio introduced in February 2015 targeting the mass residential market appeared to have channelled demand to the luxury sector. Office space continued to see strong leasing demand from financial institutions amid limited supply. Demand for land is set to increase when the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) gets underway at the end of this year. The report explains that as a result of a freer flow of goods, services and skilled labour could encourage the movement of industries, driving demand for both commercial and residential space. In Bangkok, the price index for office land stalled in the first half of 2015 as developers turned their attention to the luxury condominium market, where continued capital appreciation afforded them higher profit margins. Even so, the prices of residential land grew at a slower but more sustainable pace. Jakarta saw a similar deceleration in price index movements. The economic slowdown has hurt both business and consumer confidence in the country, according to the report. ‘In addition, the government lacks the room to manoeuvre,… Continue reading
