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UK housing supply halves in 10 years and first time buyers still struggle
The supply of available housing to buy in the UK has almost halved in 10 years and first time buyers are still struggling to get on the housing ladder, according to estate agents. The average number of properties available per branch in December 2015 fell to 37 properties, the latest housing market report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) shows. It is the joint lowest figure for 2015 with September, and almost half the number available in December 2005 when there were an average 72 houses per branch. There were 45 houses available in December 2014. While the number of house hunters registered per branch fell to 374 in December from 403 last month, an expected seasonal trend, the number of house hunters per branch has gradually increased year on year. In December 2014, there were 360 potential buyers registered at each branch, up from 302 in December 2005. Low supply affected the number of sales in December, as NAEA members reported an average of seven sales per member branch, an expected seasonal dip, and the lowest recorded in 2015. ‘Whilst we expect figures for supply and demand to be seasonally low in December, 2015 overall does not paint a positive picture for the housing market. Supply of housing is half of what it was 10 years ago,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘Yet the number of home buyers on the books has been gradually increasing. When there is such a huge and widening gap between supply and demand, a level playing field seems further out of reach for many would be house buyers,’ he added. The report also suggests that the Government’s recent efforts to help first time buyers enter the property market such as Help to Buy and plans to build new starter homes are yet to take effect. The number of sales to first time buyers stands 24%, a 2% drop from December 2014. It also reveals that the recent 3% increase to stamp duty on buyers’ second properties has created movement in the market. Some 44% of NAEA agents have seen an increase in house buyers trying to beat these reforms, and snap up their properties before they come into force in April. ‘The issue of lack of supply needs to be solved, but it isn’t going to be done anytime soon. We are still waiting to see new homes being built and whilst we wait, house prices continue to rise,’ said Hayward. ‘There is some potential light for first time buyers however, once the new tax rate increase in April is in place we may see less investment from buy to let or second home investors, which may mean less competition for first time buyers,’ he added. Continue reading
House prices in UK cities reach 15 month high
House prices in key UK cities increased by 11.4% in December, a 15 month high due to unseasonal strong market activity, according to the latest index report. Cambridge and London lead growth although sales volumes in these cities are lower over 2015 and the impetus for growth continues to come from regional cities, like Liverpool and Glasgow. Demand is increasing in the face of short supply and while there is some increased interest from buy to let buyers, eight out of 10 sales are still to owner occupiers, the Hometrack index also shows. Cambridge saw the highest annual rate of growth at 14.4% followed by London at 13.8% and then Bristol at 12.8%. All these high growth markets are growing at a broadly similar rate to the levels seen a year ago. The report points out that while residential values may be rising, overall sales volumes across Cambridge and London look on track to be lower over 2015, bucking the national trend of flat volumes, as scarcity of homes for sale and affordability pressures limit overall volumes. It also shows that the falling oil price continues to affect the housing market in Aberdeen. House price growth in the city is down 1.4% compared to a rise of 13.5% and looks set to remain weak over 2016. Newcastle and Sheffield are recording the next lowest growth rates of 3.7%, still higher than average earnings, and in cities where the housing recovery is at a much earlier stage. Overall the impetus for growth continues to come from regional cities where prices are rising off a low base as household confidence improves and home owners utilise record low mortgage rates to access the market. Glasgow and Liverpool have recorded a significant increase in house price growth over the last 12 months in cities where the recovery has been running for just two to three years. A year ago Glasgow price inflation was running at 0.1% but this has risen to 8.5%, similarly Liverpool price growth is up to 5.7% from 1.3% a year ago. A quarter of homes in the 20 cities covered by the index is private rented property and strong private investor demand will explain some of the additional growth in city level house prices relative to the UK rate of growth, the report says. Much has been made of the impact of tax changes for buy to let investors with mortgaged property and the proposed new 3% stamp duty levy from April 2016. Indeed, the latest Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey for the fourth quarter of 2015 points to expected strong demand for mortgages from buy to let landlords in the first three months of 2016. ‘Demand for buying property as an investment is far from dead and 2016 looks set to be a year of consolidation for investors, especially those who are mortgage reliant. A portion of investors are likely to accelerate purchases before April but we should not read… Continue reading
New home building in Australia reaches new high
New home building starts reached a new high in Australia in the third quarter of last year which is being hailed as good news for the country’s economy. The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that they hit a quarterly record of 55,432. The high if 215,329 for the 12 months to September 2015 is some 15% up on the previous peak in 1994. ‘It is a stellar result not only for the residential construction industry, but for the wider economy. New home construction has posted one of its longest upcycles in history, providing substantial support to Australia’s economic output and levels of employment,’ said Harley Dale, chief economist of the Housing Industry Association (HIA). ‘We need a visionary outlook regarding the homes Australia has to build over the coming decades to house its growing and ageing population, while not forgetting to celebrate the fact that new home construction and its massive spinoff benefits has propped up the Australian economy at a time when no other sector has come to the party,’ he added. But there are considerable regional variations. A breakdown of the figures shows that new starts increased by 17.4% in the Northern Territory but only 2.4% in New South Wales, 1.7% in Western Australia, 1.2% in South Australia and 0.4% in ACT. At the other end of the scale new building starts fell by 20.7% in Tasmania, by 3.8% in Victoria and by 1% in Queensland, the ABS data also shows. Meanwhile, the latest housing finance figures for November 2015 show that total lending activity increased during the month, but still remains below the high point reached in August of last year. The value of investor lending increased by 0.7% in November, but was 7.7% lower than a year earlier. The value of owner occupier lending, net of refinancing was up by 1.7% and is some 22.8% higher than a year earlier. ‘This is a positive update for Australia’s housing sector, showing that lending activity remained healthy toward the end of last year. Lending activity among investors is still below what appears to be the cyclical peak back in April last year. More strength is evident in the owner occupier segment of the market, with the latest level of lending activity on par with recent highs,’ said HIA economist, Diwa Hopkins. She pointed out that the ABS figures also highlight that owner occupiers remain active in the new housing market, with the value of lending to those purchasing or constructing a new dwelling up by 0.7% during the month to 8.8% higher than a year previously. ‘These signals from housing finance are consistent with other indicators pointing to very healthy levels of activity in the residential construction sector in early 2016,’ added Hopkins. A breakdown of the figures show that new home lending to owner occupiers varied widely. It was up 96.6% in the Northern Territory, up 9.7% in… Continue reading
