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US pending homes sales more or less unchanged in December
Pending home sales in the United States were mostly unchanged in December, but inched forward slightly, fuelled by a large increase in the Northeast that outpaced declines in the other three major regions. The latest index from the National Association of Realtors increase by just 0.1% month on month and is now 4.2% above December 2014, the 16th month in a row that it has risen. ‘Warmer than average weather and more favourable inventory conditions compared to other parts of the country encouraged more households in the North east to make the decision to buy last month,’ said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. ‘Overall, while sustained job creation is spurring more activity compared to a year ago, the ability to find available homes in affordable price ranges is difficult for buyers in many job creating areas. With home building still grossly inadequate, steady price appreciation and tight supply conditions aren't going away any time soon,’ he added. According to Yun, although healthy labour market conditions will persuade more households to buy, it's possible overall demand could be somewhat curtailed in coming months. The stock market's sizeable losses since the start of the year and the effect slowing manufacturing activity is having in some areas, especially in the energy sector, could cause some to hold off on buying. ‘The silver lining from the market turmoil in recent weeks is the fact that mortgage rates have slightly declined. Buyers looking to close on a home before the spring buying season begins may be rewarded with a mortgage rate at or below 4%,’ Yun explained. Existing homes sales this year are forecast to be around 5.34 million, an increase of 1.5% from 2015. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase between 4% and 5%, down from the 6.8% in 2015. Rents, which have far outpaced wages in recent years, are expected to slightly slow to 3.3% growth in 2016 from 3.6% a year ago. Multifamily housing starts are expected to reach 420,000 units this year, the highest level since 1987. A breakdown of the data shows that the data increased 6.1% in the North east in December, and is now 15.3% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 1.1% to 103.6 in December, but is still 3.6% above December 2014. Pending home sales in the South declined 0.5% to an index of 119.3 in December but are 1% higher than last December. The index in the West decreased 2.1% in December to 97.5, but remains 3.4% above a year ago. Continue reading
New buy to let tax regime set to lead to higher rents, research suggests
The majority of landlords in the UK believe the Government’s tax changes last year will discourage investment in the buy to let sector, new research suggests. Some 86% believe it will prevent investment some 90% think it will also result in higher rents and overall they believe it will ultimately lead to a shortage of available of rental homes. The research from lettings and property management company Orchard and Shipman Group also reveals that a quarter of landlords will be selling some, or all of their properties, but just 18% of landlords said they would pull out of the market all together. The research also reveals that over 90% of landlords believe they should be free to deduct legitimate costs, just like any other business. More than half of landlords surveyed said they would be raising rents in 2016 to cover the increased financing costs. ‘The Government’s changes to the way buy to let investors are taxed will inevitably impact revenue. The shortage of housing, a growing rental market and rising property prices is driving increased demand for rental properties,’ said Shane Spiers, chief executive officer of Orchard and Shipman Residential . ‘With these market conditions at play, it’s no surprise that landlords will be putting up rents to supplement their income. Unfortunately, it is tenants that will feel the brunt of the tax changes,’ he added. However, he pointed out that the Government’s ambition to make buy to let look less appealing, may yet be thwarted as many landlords and property investors are committed and passionate and will do whatever it takes to protect their interests. ‘Our research shows that the majority of landlords are looking at ways to recover the potential drop in revenue and we are advising landlords on the options available to them. I believe that the buy to let market will pull together to ensure it continues to provide much needed accommodation to meet growing tenant demand,’ added Spiers. Continue reading
Housing market confidence remains strong in the UK, latest sentiment index shows
Confidence in the UK housing market remains strong and the majority believe that property prices will be higher rather than lower in 12 months’ time. There has also been a small rise in positive selling sentiment in the final quarter of 2015 and a fall in the number who expect it to be a bad time to sell, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker index report. Despite declining steadily since last May, house price optimism in the final quarter of 2015 continued to show that a majority, +61 compared to +68 in May, think prices will keep rising with 13% believing they will be at least 10% higher. ‘Solid economic growth, rising real earnings and falls in already very low mortgage rates are all stimulating housing. At the same time, there is an increasingly acute imbalance between supply and demand, which is causing property prices to rise at a robust pace,’ said Craig McKinlay, Halifax mortgages director. ‘This situation, which is unlikely to reverse significantly in the short term, is reflected in the public’s continuing high levels of optimism regarding house price growth over the coming 12 months,’ he added. There has been a small rise in positive selling sentiment since last quarter, with 55% (+3) of people thinking the next 12 months will be a good time to sell. By contrast, there has been a drop in the proportion who expect it to be a bad time to sell, down three points in the same period, to 29% now. Positive buying sentiment has increased marginally, at 54% (+1), with negativity down two points to 31% while the proportion who think it would be a good time to buy and to sell property has risen to 39%, up three points on the previous quarter, while 15% of people think the next 12 months would be a bad time to do both. The proportion identifying rising property prices as a barrier to buying a property has risen to 37%, up six points on the previous quarter and the highest this figure has been since the survey’s inception, with average UK house prices now standing at £208,286 following a 10% increase during 2015. However, raising a deposit is still believed to be the main barrier to buying property, with 58% of people choosing this as a reason, up one point from last quarter). Job security is the number two reason, at 42%. Concerns about interest rate rises as a barrier have fallen, with only 11% of respondents mentioning this, down five points from last quarter. ‘Difficulties in raising a deposit, concerns about job security and high property prices remain the main barriers to people buying a home. The proportion identifying rising prices has risen to the highest in the survey’s history. The decline in affordability that this highlights is expected to dampen housing demand and property price growth over the medium term,’ said McKinlay. Half think mortgage interest rates will be higher in 12… Continue reading
