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Public land could deliver as many as two million new homes in England
Up to two million new homes could be delivered on public sector land holdings in England to help with the current housing crisis, according to a new analysis from real estate adviser Savills. The firm’s estimate is based on detailed analysis of public records of the Central Government Estate and the land holdings of the Greater London Authority (GLA) as well as market knowledge of the potential for development on NHS and Local Authority land. It is widely recognised that England is facing a housing crisis and that surplus or underused public land could play a vital role in delivering new homes, which are currently being built at only half the rate needed to accommodate the country’s growing population. However, the analysis report points out that a lack of transparency regarding the totality of these assets remains a major drawback in assessing the full potential, despite huge progress by the Government in this area, and limited public data currently makes it impossible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all public land. The public estate held by central and local government in England is worth £370 billion according to figures from the Cabinet Office, but there is little clarity regarding what form these assets take. The Savills residential research team has conducted detailed analysis of 250,000 hectares of land held by the Central Government estate in England, for which data is available. The team estimates that 13,000 hectares (5%) are most suitable for residential development and that these sites could deliver 600,000 homes. Further analysis of assets held by the Greater London Authority (GLA) shows there is space for at least an additional 100,000 homes, bringing the known potential to 700,000 homes. However, these sites are only part of the public land story. A lack of data means that large parts of public land holdings are impossible to measure. NHS and Local Authority land, which Savills was not able to include in its analysis, has significant potential. In the absence of public records, the capacity of Local Authority land is not clear, but the firm estimates that this might be around one million, if assets are actively managed and estate densities are increased. Similarly, little data is available regarding NHS Land. However, based on market experience the firm knows that these sites include many prime developable locations with scope for intensification. Hence Savills best estimate for the number of additional homes that could be delivered through the reconfiguration and intensification of operational sites within the NHS estate could be 300,000. NHS Property Services, which controls just 11% of the whole estate, released 24 hectares of surplus land between April 2013 and July 2014 alone. ‘Big strides have been made to provide data on Central Government holdings but we urgently need to achieve a similar register of assets held by Local Authorities and NHS bodies,’ said Robert Grundy, head of housing, Savills housing division. ‘Only then will we be in a position to accurately assess the full potential both for… Continue reading
UK construction industry gets boost from improved home lending
The UK government’s Help to Buy scheme and a renewed willingness by banks to lend to home owners has boosted the construction industry, it is claimed. The latest official figures from the Office of National Statistics shows that output in the construction industry in the third quarter of 2014 increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. The ONS data also shows growth of 2.9% between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014, the sixth consecutive period of annual quarter on quarter growth. Most recently, in September 2014, output in the construction industry was estimated to have increased by 1.8% compared with August 2014, following a fall of 3% in August and an increase of 2% in July. On the year, the picture is of continued growth, with output in the construction industry increasing by 3.5% in September 2014 compared with September 2013. Housing, as a sub-element of all construction output, was worth £6.77 billion in the third, up 5% on the second quarter and 22% higher than in the third quarter of 2013. Within housing, output by the private sector has grown 19% since the third quarter of last year, while construction by public organisations grew by 35% on an annual basis According to David Newnes, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents, The Help to Buy scheme and a renewed willingness on the part of banks to lend to borrowers with smaller deposits played a significant part in boosting demand all across the country, giving first time buyers a better shot at the goal of home ownership. ‘This injected new energy into the construction sector, but although house building is making headway across the pitch, we’re still a long way from seeing the form that was in evidence before the crash,’ he said. He pointed out that households received a welcome boost in the cost of living game with the news that wage growth is beating inflation, but dogged demand for housing must be matched with a new charge of supply if the cost of housing is to be kept within the grasp of new buyers. ‘House price inflation may have been reined back from the intensity witnessed earlier this year, but in the long term building new homes remains key to ensuring that competition over available property and price rises stay at healthy levels, and don’t eat away at consumer confidence,’ he explained. ‘Higher LTV lending dipped last month, as new loan to income caps came into force. We need to ensure that the bottom of the market stays firm, anchored on a solid bedrock of plentiful supply of starter homes,’ he added. Andrew Bridges, managing director of specialist London estate agents Stirling Ackroyd, believes that gradual progress won’t be enough for the construction industry. ‘This growth is still slower than the rest of the economy and not yet fast enough to capture the true scale of opportunity,’ he said. ‘Homes are most sharply sought after, and that’s reflected in the best figures for the housing portion of output… Continue reading
Property sales in England and Wales surged in October, according to latest index
The property market in England and Wales has shrugged off the general slowdown as sales surged 9% in October, according to the latest LSL/Acadata house price index. Prices were up 0.7% in October and 10.5% year on year but this annual figure drops to 5% if data from London and the South East is excluded. It takes the average house price to £277,390 and average house prices across England and Wales have reached a new record for the sixteenth successive month. The data also shows an uplift in activity outside of London has helped drive the highest number of completed home sales in seven years but prices have fallen at the top end of the London market. ‘This increased level of house sale completions marks a considerable, though laborious, reflection of the increased buyer activity earlier in the year since the recession zapped the energy from the market,’ said David Newnes, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents. ‘October saw the highest level of house sales completed in a month since November 2007. In part this was driven by a better throughput of sales that had sat in the pipeline for some time, finally coming through to completion,’ he explained. ‘On a monthly basis, house price inflation has edged up from just a 0.3% increase in September, as we see some modest growth. Recent hiccups in the market have not shaken the overall underlying stability and the average UK home owner has seen the value of their property rise £26,500 or 10.5%) in the past year,’ he explained. He also pointed out that the biggest uplift in completions in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the same period of 2013 has been witnessed outside of London. Indeed, completed house sales in both the West Midlands and East Midlands have risen 22%, while in London house sale completions are up by just 3% over the same period. In regions such as the North and East Anglia, which saw average house prices slump during September, further growth in activity is critical to warm up the local recovery. First time buyers in particular need shielding from any future cooling interventions from the government or Bank of England. However, the regions have seen a more complex path of growth. Only three regions saw house prices set peak highs. These were the South West, South East, and London as the recovery continues to advance with a Southern leaning slant. ‘If we omit London and the South East from our calculations, a milder 5% annual change in property prices emerges. Yet at the very top end of the housing market in prime central areas of London, growth is subsiding. Average house prices across London overall rose by only 0.4% in September, the smallest monthly increase the capital has seen for 15 months as the pace of price inflation cools down from the summer heat,’ said Newnes. ‘Property prices have dropped in six out of the seven most expensive boroughs over… Continue reading




