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Positive medium outlook for prime UK property beyond London
Value offered in prime residential property markets beyond London suggests a positive medium term outlook despite some caution among buyers ahead of the UK general election next month. But there are differences on a regional basis, according to real estate firm Savills whose latest analysis report points out that it has become pretty much impossible to talk about the UK’s prime housing markets beyond London as a single entity. It explains that since the economic downturn of 2008, the markets have become increasingly stratified, reflecting not only their distance from the capital, but also the tier of the prime market in which they sit and whether they are in an urban, rural or coastal location. Wide price differentials now exist between London and its commuter zone, the remainder of England and Wales and, indeed Scotland. A property worth £1 million in 2007 would now be worth £1.34 million in London, £1.05 million in the commuter zone and £780,000 in Scotland. ‘Within each of these areas, the prime urban markets have generally been on the rise, while their rural counterparts have lagged behind to date. Although the medium term prospects remain positive, all of these submarkets face challenges in 2015,’ explained Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills. ‘Although the economic recovery has held firm and the outlook for interest rates remains relatively benign, political uncertainty in the run up to the general election has, for the moment at least, resulted in an air of caution among buyers,’ he said. ‘The mainstream markets, which impact on sentiment higher up the value chain, seem to have been similarly affected despite the best efforts of the Chancellor to stimulate a feel good factor with the recent long overdue reform of stamp duty. The reality is that the increased regulation of the mortgage market will have played a significant part in bringing a period of sobriety to the wider housing market following strong growth in the first half of 2014,’ he pointed out. ‘Despite lower levels of mortgage debt dependency, regulatory limits on the amount of borrowing a buyer can take on board will also have had an impact on those looking to work their way up the prime housing market. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of the prime market now finds itself with a larger stamp duty liability,’ he added. Cook also explained that taxation has been an even greater concern in the upper echelons of the prime market and the debate around a mansion tax has done nothing to engender a sense of urgency among buyers. ‘However unwelcome and unwarranted the proposal, owners of prime regional housing may take some solace from the fact that the main burden of the tax would be felt by owners of higher value properties in London,’ said Cook. ‘If a mansion tax is introduced it has the potential to make properties outside of the capital, that already look comparatively good value, appear even more attractive. Over time it could… Continue reading
US holiday home sales soared in 2014, annual report shows
Holiday home sales in the United States soared 57.4% in 2014 to above their most recent peak level in 2006, while investment purchases fell for the fourth straight year, new data shows. The annual survey by the National Association of Realtors reveals that holiday home sales increased to an estimated 1.13 million last year, the highest amount since NAR began the survey in 2003. Investment home sales in 2014 decreased 7.4% to an estimated 1.02 million from 1.10 million in 2013. Owner occupied purchases fell 12.8% to 3.23 million last year from 3.7 million in 2013. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, described the holiday sales market as having seen astonishing growth, nearly doubling the combined total of the previous two years. ‘Affluent households have greatly benefited from strong growth in the stock market in recent years, and the steady rise in home prices has likely given them reassurance that real estate remains an attractive long-term investment,’ he said. ‘Furthermore, last year’s impressive increase also reflects long term growth in the numbers of baby boomers moving closer to retirement and buying second homes to convert into their primary home in a few years,’ he added. Overall holiday home sales accounted for 21% of all transactions in 2014, their highest market share since the survey was first conducted. The portion of investment sales fell to 19% compared to 20% in 2013 and owner occupied purchases declined to 60% from 67% in 2013. ‘Despite strong rental demand in many markets, investment property sales have declined four consecutive years to their lowest share since 2010 as rising home prices and fewer distressed properties coming onto the market have further reduced the number of bargains available to turn into profitable rentals,’ said Yun. The median sales price of both holiday and investment homes declined in 2014. The median holiday home price was $150,000, down 11.1% from $168,700 in 2013. The median investment home sales price was $125,000, down 3.8% from $130,000 a year ago. According to Yun, the decrease in vacation and investment sales prices is likely due to the increase in holiday and investment buyers purchasing condos and townhouses, which contributed to a decline in the median size of 200 square feet for both. Additionally, the rise in holiday home buyers purchasing distressed properties and buying in the South, where home prices are often lower, contributed to the overall decline in the sales price of vacation homes. The share of holiday home buyers who paid in cash fell to 30% from 38% in 2013. Investment buyers who paid in cash decreased to 41% from 46% a year ago. Of buyers who financed their purchase with a mortgage, nearly half, 48%, of holiday home buyers and 41% of investment buyers financed less than 70% of the purchase price. The data also shows that 45% holiday homes and 44% of investment homes purchased in 2014 were distressed properties, either… Continue reading
Growing disconnect between perception and reality for UK first time buyers, report suggests
The number of people buying their own home in the UK for the first time increased in 2014 but there is a growing disconnect between reality and perception of the market, new research suggests. According to the latest generation report from the Halifax improving economic conditions together with high profile government schemes such as Help to Buy, saw the highest amount of first time buyers purchase their first home for seven years. From a peak in 2006 of 402,800 first time buyers, numbers fell as low as 192,300 in 2008 before climbing back to 311,500 in 2014. Despite this the annual generation report found relatively little improvement in how potential first time buyers view their chances of getting on the housing ladder. The research also shows that 79% of 20 to 45 year olds believe banks don't want to lend to first time buyers, and 21% believe it is virtually impossible for first time buyers to obtain a mortgage. The Halifax says that there is clearly some work to do to dispel the myth that banks are averse to lending to first time buyers. And the proportion of people saving for a deposit has dropped 6% with some 43% currently saving to buy a property compared to 57% who are not. The lender says that this strengthens the view that more people may be giving up on owning their own home and are instead accepting renting as a viable way of living in a nice home, in an area they want to live in and in the right size of property. The Halifax also highlights the emergence of a new demographic split between those who want to get on the housing ladder and those who say they don’t at 13% in 2011 compared to 16% in 2015. The presumption that the UK is obsessed with home ownership may need revaluating and a lower level of home ownership may become the new normal, it adds. The research also shows that 53% think the Help to Buy scheme has had a positive impact, but 39% don’t know or are undecided and the three most cited barriers to home ownership among those who do not own a property are the size of the deposit for 57%, high property prices for 56% and low income for 53%. London has the lowest proportion of home owners aged 20 to 45 or 39% and the highest number of people in this age range who worry they will never own a home at 82% while non home owners are currently prepared to save for average of 5.35 years in order to save for a deposit whereas homeowners saved for an average of 3.6 years. The average amount that non home owners can afford to save each week is now £33.35 and 39% of 20 of 45 year olds are saving to buy two bed properties, split between flats and houses at 18% and 22% respectively. ‘This year’s report has… Continue reading
