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Long term outlook for UK prime country market looking positive
The long term outlook for the UK’s prime country property market is positive, but the election result is unlikely to lead to significant price growth, according to a new analysis. The result of the General Election has marked an end to the uncertainty experienced in the UK prime markets in the run-up to polling day, when concerns about taxation and personal finances led to weaker demand at the start of 2015, the Knight Frank report points out. Indeed, it shows that annual price growth had slowed to 2.5% by March, down from 5.2% in the second quarter of 2014 but prices have risen by nearly 1% so far this year and by 2.5% annually. ‘We now expect there will be more positive trading conditions as buyers and vendors return to the market. Transactions, which had been put on hold pending the outcome of the vote or as a result of a wider sense of political uncertainty, will proceed,’ said Oliver Knight of the firm’s residential research unit. However, prices remain below peak levels, creating an opportunity for buyers and prime market activity has picked up over the last 12 months,’ the report also says. ‘With a Conservative Cabinet, the possibility of a mansion tax for properties valued at over £2 million has gone. Now, one of the key questions is what effect a more certain political environment will have on prices,’ explained Knight. ‘While the confidence engendered by political stability is expected to result in a rise in market activity, any expectations that prices will jump significantly as a direct result of the general election may be unrealistic. ‘Any market is based on supply and demand and the number of new properties coming to the market is expected to increase. This rise in supply, together with uncertainty as to the precise direction of fiscal policies of the new government is likely to mitigate significant price rises,’ he pointed out. ‘Additionally, higher purchase costs as a result of the increase in stamp duty announced in December need to be considered. As a result of that change, the up-front cost of buying a property valued at more than £937,500 has risen,’ he added. The report says that overall the long term outlook for the prime country market is positive as for now interest rates remain at record low levels, economic growth is steady and mortgage rates are competitive. ‘As the economy continues to improve the ripples of demand from London will strengthen. Popular commuter locations, within easy reach of the capital, are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries,’ said Knight. ‘There has already been an increase in the number of buyers looking to exploit the relative price gap that has opened up between London and regional prime markets and the expectation is that this will continue,’ he concluded. Continue reading
Number of sales to first time buyers in UK edges up
Just over a quarter, 26%, of house sales in the UK were made to first time buyers in April but estate agents are warning that with prices increasing it could be harder for them in the next few years. Sales to first time buyers are up from 22% in March, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) April Housing Market Report. However when looking further ahead, 93% of NAEA agents do not see first time buyers having substantial cut through in the market over the next five years. Further, 55% of member agents think that house prices will increase over the next five years, continuing to push first time buyers out of the market. The report also found that in the build up to the General Election, demand in April remained similar to the previous month with 344 house hunters registered per branch compared to 343 in March, whilst supply decreased from last month, with just 43 houses available per member branch compared to 48 in March. In addition to this, 74% of NAEA member agents do not see supply and demand levelling out over the next five years, meaning that more buyers will be squeezed out of the market. ‘The market is notoriously tough for first time buyers. House prices continue to increase and lenders have tight and restrictive lending criteria,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘Whilst this month’s figures are positive and a step in the right direction, I’d like to think that with the help of 200,000 new starter homes and the Help to Buy ISA, first time buyers will be given even more help to get their foot on the ladder, however these things may take time to come to fruition,’ he explained. Following the result of the General Election, 92% of NAEA agents think the majority Conservative government is great news for the housing market and out of all the Conservatives’ pledges, 60% of agents believe their plan to build 200,000 new starter homes will benefit consumers the most. Also, some 41% of estate agents believe that the Help to Buy ISA will be the most beneficial, allowing first time buyers to save more successfully for their first home. Continue reading
An interest rate rise could cripple almost seven million borrowers in the UK
Almost seven million how owners could struggle to cover their mortgage repayments if interest rates rise just 1%, according to new research. Interest rates have been at a historical low of 0.5% but some economists have predicted that they will begin to climb from Spring 2016. They are unlikely to rise steeply, however, a rise of 1% would see borrowers with standard variable rate mortgages pay an additional £55 a month for every £100,000 owed and once rates begin to rise, some 63% of borrowers say they would have to cut back on all non-essential spending, such as weekends away or even meals out, to cover the additional cost. The research, carried out on behalf of mortgage and loans provider Ocean Finance, also shows that while many borrowers are able to reduce spending to cover the increased mortgage cost, a further 13% are concerned they would quickly get into financial difficulty trying to make ends meet. Almost a quarter of borrowers have already switched to fixed rate mortgages and a further 16% plan to take fixed rate mortgages to protect themselves against a rate increase. However, the firm says it is worryingly that more than a third of home owners are not taking any steps to shield themselves from an interest rate rise. The pressure to meet increased mortgage payments would force about 10% of home owners to consider selling their home to avoid the higher cost of their mortgage, the research also suggests. ‘It’s inevitable that interest rates will rise at some point, whether that happens in Spring next year or later in the year. Whilst the rate rise is likely to be gradual and it may take a while to get to a 1% increase, every rate hike will have an impact on hard working families who are already struggling to make ends meet,’ said Gareth Shilton, Ocean’s spokesperson. ‘Many people will feel like mortgage prisoners because their circumstances have changed since they took out their loan and they’ll understandably be concerned about what a potential interest rate rise means for them,’ he pointed out. ‘It’s important to understand that in most cases there are options, so it’s important that anyone who is concerned about a rate increase should seek advice on the best deal available to them,’ he added. Continue reading
