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Cooling house market growth in California affects US market as a whole
A California cooling effect could put a freeze on US property market growth with affordability in many of the state’s markets out of reach, says the latest analysis report. Since 2012 price growth in California has buoyed the West of the nation and helped support nationwide prices appreciation, according to the report from Clear Capital, but now there is evidence of cooling price appreciation across the state. It explains that typically, price increases are driven by increases in demand, however, a look at the San Francisco housing cycle shows that between 2011 and 2015 the spike in prices has not been the result of increases in overall transactions. Rather, the tight supply is pushing prices on an upward trajectory placing the market even further out of reach for new buyers. It also shows that in slower growth markets like Los Angeles, a mortgage payment requires upwards of 70% of a potential first time buyer’s income, certainly quelling demand. Even the San Jose MSA’s appreciation, which began experiencing dramatic bubble like growth in 2013, is beginning to slow down with quarterly growth of 2.5%, less than half of the 5.8% quarterly growth seen two years ago. While the West continues to lead in sustained gains, markets outside of California will need to work harder to defend the region’s top position, according to the report. Las Vegas and Portland have both seen boosts of 0.2% in quarterly growth since last month. Denver, Seattle and Sacramento continue to hold steady at 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.5% quarterly growth, the data also shows. The Midwest and South continue to ride the wave of the peak summer real estate season with quarterly growth rates at or above the national benchmark of 0.8%. The South ends the quarter at 0.8% growth, and the Midwest ahead at 0.9%. Subsiding losses in the Southern region is a good sign for a region that has exhibited volatility in price trends, the report points out. The Northeast continues to lag behind the rest of the nation in both quarterly and yearly growth at 0.2% and 2.1% respectively. While most of the MSAs in the region are still experiencing positive quarterly growth, with the exception of Providence with a fall of 0.8%, the rate of growth in markets like Boston and New York are over double that for the rest of the region, driving down affordability. ‘The strong continued growth in the Midwest, South and West, in particular the California Bay Area, suggests strong consumer and investor confidence has been seemingly unaffected by talk of looming interest rate hikes,’ said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. ‘However, if and when interest rates do rise, likely occurring by the end of 2015, it will be timed with a decrease in real estate market activity typical through the fall and winter seasons,’ he explained. ‘Unfortunate pairing will most likely cause a slowdown in price growth for most markets,… Continue reading
UK landlords now have choice of almost 1,000 buy to let mortgage products
The number of available buy to let mortgage products has leapt in Q3, according to the latest Complex Buy to Let Index from specialist brokers Mortgages for Business. Landlords in the UK now have the widest choice of mortgage options on record, almost 1,000 in the third quarter of 2015, a rise of 11% since the previous quarter. On an annual basis this represents an increase of 35% in buy to let mortgage products, according to the latest index from specialist brokers Mortgages for Business. The report also shows that standard ‘vanilla’ buy to let properties already offer the lowest gross yield to landlords, but this has now dropped 0.8% in the space of three months, to the psychologically important level of 5%. On an annual basis, yields on vanilla properties have fallen further by 0.9% since the third quarter of 2014. Similarly, between the second and third quarters of 2015, the yield on a multi-unit freehold blocks (MUFBs) fell from 7.1% to 6.1%. Compared to a year ago, when the average MUFB yield was 8.6%, yields for such properties have seen a 2.5% fall. However, at 6.1%, the absolute level remains considerably higher than for ‘vanilla’ properties. Houses in multiple occupation (or HMOs) have seen yields perform comparably well. Between the second and third quarters HMO yields fell by only 0.1% to 9%. As well as more modest yields overall, this means the spread between the lowest yielding property type (vanilla) and the highest yielding (HMOs) has widened to 4%. ‘The number of new mortgages coming onto the market has rocketed in recent months. There is huge interest in mortgages suitable for limited companies as landlords take advice from their accountants,’ said David Whittaker managing director of Mortgages for Business. ‘Meanwhile, as rents fail to keep pace with racing property prices, yields are continuing to plateau. Returns on vanilla buy to let have now fallen to the 5% mark. Landlords with reasonable borrowing costs and a strong portfolio of these sorts of properties will still be making a solid income from such investments but this changes the case for those considering new purchases. With average yields on HMOs still nearer 10%, more complex property types are likely to attract a growing portion of new investment,’ he explained. The research also shows that remortgaging has outperformed new purchase loans for the fourth quarter running. In the third quarter some 66% of new vanilla buy to let loans were for remortgaging, compared to 34% for new property purchases, a 4% increase in favour of remortgaging since the previous quarter. Similarly, for MUFB properties, remortgaging made up 89% of new mortgages in the third quarter of 2015, compared to 82% remortgaging in the second quarter and just 67% in the third quarter of 2014. In the second quarter new purchases made up just one in 10 mortgages for homes in multiple occupation, some 10%, however, the third quarter has seen the proportion revert to… Continue reading
UK govt to change planning rules to free land for new homes
Planning rules on brownfield sites in the UK are being removed to free up land for development with more homes being built for first time buyers, the government has announced. The housing budget is to be directed towards new low cost homes for sale for first time buyers and housing association tenants are to be given the right to buy, Chancellor George Osborne has confirmed. He also announced that the government will bring forward sales of land, buildings and other assets the government bought or built, raising up to £5 billion over the course of this Parliament with the funds from these sales being recycled to help fund new infrastructure projects. Osborne added that a new independent National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) is being created charged with offering unbiased analysis of the UK’s long term infrastructure needs. The NIC will begin work immediately with Lord Andrew Adonis as its first chairman. It is likely that up to 40 towns and cities in southern England could be doubled in size to deal with the country’s housing crisis as Lord Adonis has spoken about bold initiatives needed to deliver the huge number of new homes required. He is known to favour the idea of building a new generation of garden cities or garden extensions to existing towns. Indeed, in an article written just weeks before his appointment, he said central government should intervene to massively extend towns including Guildford, Norwich, Reading, Oxford and Stratford-upon-Avon. He is also known to back the idea of a new requirement on local authorities to use more of its public land for housing. His vision is likely to be bold and include central and local government leading development in partnership with the private and voluntary sectors. Melanie Leech, chief executive of the British Property Federation, welcomed the announcements. ‘In order to create places where people will live as well as work, we would hope to see discussion as to whether large scale housing schemes could be considered within significant infrastructure projects. This would enable the development industry to deliver a large number of homes, quickly,’ she said. Continue reading
