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Scottish farmland values static in first half of 2016

The value of Scottish farmland remained virtually static in the first half of 2016, down just 0.2% to £4,357 per acre, according to the latest sector index. Year on year values are down 1.7% but up 26% over five years, up 169% over 10 years and up 174% over 20 years, the data from the Knight Frank Scottish Farmland Index shows. A breakdown of the figures show that good quality arable land remains at £9,046 per acre, while the price of permanent pasture fell fractionally to £2,719 per acre and overall despite prices holding up, there has been relatively little market activity in 2016. ‘There have been very few farms sold so far this year, and fewer than usual were launched around the time of the Royal Highland Show, which is the point the market here traditionally gets going,’ said Tom Stewart-Moore, head of Scottish farm sales at Knight Frank. ‘We are still talking to potential vendors who had just got to grips with the result of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and Land Reform, but until they get a better feel for what Brexit means for the Scottish agricultural industry they are wary of committing to a sale,’ he explained. ‘Combined with the continued slump in commodity values, many people were expecting a rush of farms to the market in 2016 and a subsequent drop in prices,’ he pointed out, adding that low interest rates mean there have been very few forced sales so far. He also pointed out that demand for good quality arable and livestock units is definitely outstripping supply and demand also remains strong for amenity and sporting estates. Knight Frank recently sold the 6,500 acre Kinnaird Estate in Perthshire for in excess of its £9.6 million guide price and an 8,000 acre stalking estate in Sutherland, which is due to launch soon, is expected to be another good test of the market. ‘Although Scotland did not vote for Brexit, the slide in the value of Sterling since the referendum makes land here better value than it was before the vote so I’m expecting more interest from overseas buyers,’ said Stewart-Moore. ‘Despite uncertainty in the economy, the value of the pound and volatility in the stockmarket, land is still seen as a very safe investment,’ he added. Continue reading

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New UK residential listings bounce back after downturn in June due to EU vote

New properties listed for sale in the UK increased by 3.4% in July with 62% of towns and cities seeing an increase in supply July compared to the previous month, the latest research shows. The biggest rise was recorded in Durham with a rise of 51%, followed by Hartlepool with an increase of 32.5% and Hemel Hempstead up by 31.7%, according to the figures from online estate agents HouseSimple. London’s property supply was up 13.7% in July, with Bexley, Greenwich and Lambeth seeing new property listings rise 44.1%, 41.3% and 40.5% respectively. The index report suggests that home owners don’t appear to be too worried about the possibility of falling property prices, as July saw new property listings bounce back from June when they fell by 7.3% across the country and by 12.8% in London. However, despite the majority of towns and cities experiencing a boost in supply in July, more than a third experienced significant falls in new properties listed, including Bootle, where listings fell by 30.8% in July and Chichester with a fall of 27.7%. ‘It has been business as usual after Brexit in terms of activity, with many sellers who were waiting on the result of the Referendum, now actively marketing their properties. The reality is that people need to sell for a whole host of reasons, and delaying post-Brexit is simply not an option if people are relocating for work or family reasons,’ said Alex Gosling, the firm’s chief executive officer. ‘On the ground, what was probably a sellers’ market before the vote is now going to be a more level playing field. That doesn’t mean that quality properties in desirable areas won’t still sell for close to or at asking price, but buyers are holding a few more cards now, and motivated sellers may need to more flexible on price negotiations,’ he added. Continue reading

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Italian commercial real estate investment going from strength to strength

Investment in Italy’s commercial real estate markets is going from strength to strength with the first half of 2016 seeing over €3.4 billion of sales, up 35% on the same period last year. The latest investment analysis report from international real estate advsor Savills says that favourable market conditions are fuelling supply in the Italian market through fund liquidations or equity fund investors who are taking advantage of the point in the market’s cycle to dispose of some of the most liquid assets in their portfolios. It says that it is significant that cross border investment into Italy accounted for more than half of the total investment volume in the first six months of 2016, and close to 65% of all deals. Savills has recorded that international funds are increasingly dominating the market, with 80% of foreign capital coming from Europe. ‘Our analysis suggests Italy is at an earlier stage in the cycle compared to Europe’s primary markets in France, Germany and the UK, therefore international investors are still identifying the potential for capital growth and better returns from core Italian product,’ said Eri Mitsosterigiou, director of research, Savills Europe.. ‘We believe that investment demand for the remainder of the year will continue to be driven by European investors, however we also envisage domestic investors to up their buying activity,’ Mitsosterigiou added. According to Savills, investment into the office sector in Italy this year accounted for circa 46% of all activity, over 40% ahead of the first half of 2015. The retail sector represented 26% of the total investment volume, also a yoy 40% hike. The report points out that the high streets of Milan, Rome and Florence are dominating the retail investment market and the first six months of this year saw around €505 million invested, an increase of circa 80% compared to the previous year. ‘Italy is a country with above average household disposable income and strong tourist flows in some of its biggest cities. The resilient characteristics of high street retail, with stable or rising rents, low vacancy and high demand is attracting investors,’ said Marco Montosi, head of Investment, Savills Italy. Savills also recorded that the first half of 2016 saw a notable increase in investment into alternative commercial real estate sectors including hospitality. Almost 22%, some €761 million, of the total volume can be attributed to investment into the alternatives sector, markedly within healthcare. Also of note is that the vast majority of the transactions so far in 2016 were on a single asset basis, whilst portfolio transactions accounted for 21% of the total, down from 35% in the first half of 2015. Looking at the next 12 months, Savills believes that the supply of commercial real estate is set to increase as funds will take advantage of the improving market conditions, particularly the ones that purchased in the low point of the cycle in 2011/2012. ‘Prime locations of major Italian cities… Continue reading

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